Ma Monayem Miah

Import and export parity price analyses of selected vegetables and spices in Bangladesh

The study was undertaken to find out the export potentialities of selected vegetables and import substitution of selected spices in Bangladesh. Seven hundred twenty vegetables and 320 spices growers, 25 suppliers, and 25 exporters were randomly selected for the study.Net margin analysis was done on both variable and total cost basis. Domestic resource cost (DRC) analysis was also done for estimating comparative advantage of the selected vegetables and spices. The study revealed that net returns were positive for all vegetables and spices producers. However, the highest net return was estimated for brinjal producers (Tk. 273799/ha) followed by bittergourd producers (Tk152145/ha). In the case of spices, the highest net return was received by ginger producers (Tk. 231399/ha) followed by onion producers (Tk. 122308/ha).Comparatively lower net returns were found for okra (Tk51830/ha) and garlic producers (Tk 99352/ha). Vegetables exporters received the highest net margin (Tk32852/ ton) from UK market which was higher than the Middle East market (Tk22869/ton).The highest benefit cost ratio (BCR) was calculated for brinjal (1.9) followed by ash gourd (1.8). For spices, BCR were 2.1and 1.8 for ginger and garlic respectively. Bangladesh had comparative advantage for producing all selected vegetables as the estimates of domestic resource cost (DRC) were less than one. The value of DRC for all selected spices were less than unity implied that the production of these spices would be highly efficient for import substitution. Therefore, the study have been undertaken to find out this issues. Bangladesh J. Agril. Res. 42(2): 321-341, June 2017

Economic Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Productivity in Bangladesh: A Ricardian Approach

The study measured the economic impacts of climate change on wheat production in Bangladesh using Ricardian approach. Panel data on wheat yield and climate variables were used to estimate the model. Results indicated that most climate variables had a significant impact on the income of wheat production. The marginal increase of temperature during January and February reduced the net revenue by Bangladeshi Taka (BTk) 18,885 ha−1 (USD 239.05) and BTk 9,603 ha−1 (USD 121.56) respectively, whereas, marginal increase of temperature during December increased it by BTk 7,045 ha−1 (USD 89.18). Increasing rainfall during December and January increases the net return by BTk 128 ha−1 (USD 1.62) and BTk 543 ha−1 (USD 6.87) respectively. The study used predictions from five different Global Circulation Models (GCM) for two IPCC emission scenarios and found that impacts on net revenues for these two scenarios are mixed depending on model predictions. Net revenue will decrease for both A2 and B2 emission scenarios using precipitation and temperature predictions for 2030 for three of the models, while it will increase for two models. At the same time, for 2050, net revenue will fall when temperature and precipitation of one of the models are used for the rest net revenue will rise. This means that while our study provided marginal effects for temperature and precipitation changes on farm’s net revenue, understanding about the climate change impact requires better climate modeling for the local situation. This is important to accurately predict the impact of climate change for future years.