Machteld van den Broek

Uncertainty in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) deployment projections: a cross-model comparison exercise

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) can be a valuable CO2 mitigation option, but what role CCS will play in the future is uncertain. In this paper we analyze the results of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) taking part in the 27th round of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) with respect to the role of CCS in long term mitigation scenarios. Specifically we look into the use of CCS as a function of time, mitigation targets, availability of renewables and its use with different fuels. Furthermore, we explore the possibility to relate model results to general and CCS specific model assumptions. The results show a wide range of cumulative capture in the 2010–2100 period (600–3050 GtCO2), but the fact that no model projects less than 600 GtCO2 indicates that CCS is considered to be important by all these models. Interestingly, CCS storage rates are often projected to be still increasing in the second half of this century. Depending on the scenario, at least six out of eight, up to all models show higher storage rates in 2100 than in 2050. CCS shares in cumulative primary energy use are in most models increasing with the stringency of the target or under conservative availability of renewables. The strong variations of CCS deployment projection rates could not be related to the reported differences in the assumptions of the models by means of a cross-model comparison in this sample.

The role of bioenergy and biochemicals in CO2 mitigation through the energy system – a scenario analysis for the Netherlands

Bioenergy as well as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage are key options to embark on cost‐efficient trajectories that realize climate targets. Most studies have not yet assessed the influence on these trajectories of emerging bioeconomy sectors such as biochemicals and renewable jet fuels (RJFs). To support a systems transition, there is also need to demonstrate the impact on the energy system of technology development, biomass and fossil fuel prices. We aim to close this gap by assessing least‐cost pathways to 2030 for a number of scenarios applied to the energy system of the Netherlands, using a cost‐minimization model. The type and magnitude of biomass deployment are highly influenced by technology development, fossil fuel prices and ambitions to mitigate climate change. Across all scenarios, biomass consumption ranges between 180 and 760 PJ and national emissions between 82 and 178 Mt CO2. High technology development leads to additional 100–270 PJ of biomass consumption and 8–20 Mt CO2 emission reduction compared to low technology development counterparts. In high technology development scenarios, additional emission reduction is primarily achieved by bioenergy and carbon capture and storage. Traditional sectors, namely industrial biomass heat and biofuels, supply 61–87% of bioenergy, while wind turbines are the main supplier of renewable electricity. Low technology pathways show lower biochemical output by 50–75%, do not supply RJFs and do not utilize additional biomass compared to high technology development. In most scenarios the emission reduction targets for the Netherlands are not met, as additional reduction of 10–45 Mt CO2 is needed. Stronger climate policy is required, especially in view of fluctuating fossil fuel prices, which are shown to be a key determinant of bioeconomy development. Nonetheless, high technology development is a no‐regrets option to realize deep emission reduction as it also ensures stable growth for the bioeconomy even under unfavourable conditions.

Enabling Flexibility from Demand-Side Resources Through Aggregator Companies

In recent years, several business models of the aggregator company have emerged in Europe, in response to a general quest for flexibility in power system operations. A systematic approach of analysing the organisational arrangements underlying a business model is still lacking, whereas the available information on the potential of aggregated resources in electricity markets is limited. This work contributes to the systematic development of the business model concept of an aggregator company, and provides insight into its economic potential. A set of elements is identified that can be used for analysing the various implementations of a business model. A revenue analysis is performed based on historical data from the day-ahead market and the imbalance settlement system in the Netherlands. The case study is about a hypothetical implementation of the aggregator company with focus on residential demand-side resources. The results show a significant theoretical potential and suggest an interesting business case.

A Method for Developing a Game-Enhanced Tool Targeting Consumer Engagement in Demand Response Mechanisms

This work focuses on enhancing consumer engagement in demand response mechanisms through the employment of gamification techniques. Demand response mechanisms are employed by electricity suppliers, other market parties, and transmission and distribution system operators as options for market optimisation, balancing supply and demand, and ensuring system security. Gamification is the use of game design elements in non-game contexts, and the use of game principles in the design of certain systems to enhance engagement with these systems and make the interaction more motivating. The development of flexibility mechanisms at the demand-side is considered a key aspect for an effective energy transition, which requires the active participation and empowerment of consumers in the energy system. However, a significant barrier to realise the full flexibility potential is insufficient consumer engagement and awareness regarding energy usage. Serious games, and gamification, can effectively empower consumers by enhancement of engagement and stimulation of collaboration between them. The goal is to enable a playful interaction between technology, such as smart metering systems, energy management systems and smart appliances, and consumers that will result in higher engagement in demand response. An overview of demand response is provided, and the linkage is made between retail markets, markets at the wholesale level and ancillary services. The role of gamification techniques is discussed based on literature review, focusing on strategies to increase consumer engagement in demand response mechanisms. A user-centred, iterative design method is proposed for the development of a game-enhanced tool in which also collaboration between players can be stimulated, whereas the impact of applying the game-enhanced tool on consumer engagement can be empirically verified.