Madeleine Strum

Inhalation exposure and risk from mobile source air toxics in future years.

Modeling of inhalation exposure and risks resulting from exposure to mobile source air toxics can be used to evaluate impacts of reductions from control programs on overall risk, as well as changes in relative contributions of different source sectors to risk, changes in contributions of different pollutants to overall risk, and changes in geographic distributions of risk. Such analysis is useful in setting regulatory priorities, and informing the decision-making process. In this paper, we have conducted national-scale air quality, exposure, and risk modeling for the US in the years 2015, 2020, and 2030, using similar tools and methods as the 1999 National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment. Our results suggest that US Environmental Protection Agency emission control programs will substantially reduce average inhalation cancer risks and potential noncancer health risks from exposure to mobile source air toxics. However, cancer risk and noncancer hazard due to inhalation of air toxics will continue to be a public health concern.

Formaldehyde (HCHO) As a Hazardous Air Pollutant: Mapping Surface Air Concentrations from Satellite and Inferring Cancer Risks in the United States

Formaldehyde (HCHO) is the most important carcinogen in outdoor air among the 187 hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) identified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), not including ozone and particulate matter. However, surface observations of HCHO are sparse and the EPA monitoring network could be prone to positive interferences. Here we use 2005-2016 summertime HCHO column data from the OMI satellite instrument, validated with high-quality aircraft data and oversampled on a 5 × 5 km2 grid, to map surface air HCHO concentrations across the contiguous U.S. OMI-derived summertime HCHO values are converted to annual averages using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. Results are in good agreement with high-quality summertime observations from urban sites (-2% bias, r = 0.95) but a factor of 1.9 lower than annual means from the EPA network. We thus estimate that up to 6600-12 500 people in the U.S. will develop cancer over their lifetimes by exposure to outdoor HCHO. The main HCHO source in the U.S. is atmospheric oxidation of biogenic isoprene, but the corresponding HCHO yield decreases as the concentration of nitrogen oxides (NOx ≡ NO + NO2) decreases. A GEOS-Chem sensitivity simulation indicates that HCHO levels would decrease by 20-30% in the absence of U.S. anthropogenic NOx emissions. Thus, NOx emission controls to improve ozone air quality have a significant cobenefit in reducing HCHO-related cancer risks.

Impact of Underestimating the Effects of Cold Temperature on Motor Vehicle Start Emissions of Air Toxics in the United States

Abstract Analyses of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certification data, California Air Resources Board surveil-lance testing data, and EPA research testing data indicated that EPA’s MOBILE6.2 emission factor model substantially underestimates emissions of gaseous air toxics occurring during vehicle starts at cold temperatures for light-duty vehicles and trucks meeting EPA Tier 1 and later standards. An unofficial version of the MOBILE6.2 model was created to account for these underestimates. When this unofficial version of the model was used to project emissions into the future, emissions increased by almost 100% by calendar year 2030, and estimated modeled ambient air toxics concentrations increased by 6–84%, depending on the pollutant. To address these elevated emissions, EPA recently finalized standards requiring reductions of emissions when engines start at cold temperatures.

National review of ambient air toxics observations

ABSTRACT Ambient air observations of hazardous air pollutant (HAPs), also known as air toxics, derived from routine monitoring networks operated by states, local agencies, and tribes (SLTs), are analyzed to characterize national concentrations and risk across the nation for a representative subset of the 187 designated HAPs. Observations from the National Air Toxics Trend Sites (NATTS) network of 27 stations located in most major urban areas of the contiguous United States have provided a consistent record of HAPs that have been identified as posing the greatest risk since 2003 and have also captured similar concentration patterns of nearly 300 sites operated by SLTs. Relatively high concentration volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as benzene, formaldehyde, and toluene exhibit the highest annual average concentration levels, typically ranging from 1 to 5 µg/m3. Halogenated (except for methylene chloride) and semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs) and metals exhibit concentrations typically 2–3 orders of magnitude lower. Formaldehyde is the highest national risk driver based on estimated cancer risk and, nationally, has not exhibited significant changes in concentration, likely associated with the large pool of natural isoprene and formaldehyde emissions. Benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and 1,3-butadiene are ubiquitous VOC HAPs with large mobile source contributions that continue to exhibit declining concentrations over the last decade. Common chlorinated organic compounds such as ethylene dichloride and methylene chloride exhibit increasing concentrations. The variety of physical and chemical attributes and measurement technologies across 187 HAPs result in a broad range of method detection limits (MDLs) and cancer risk thresholds that challenge confidence in risk results for low concentration HAPs with MDLs near or greater than risk thresholds. From a national monitoring network perspective, the ability of the HAPs observational database to characterize the multiple pollutant and spatial scale patterns influencing exposure is severely limited and positioned to benefit by leveraging a variety of emerging measurement technologies. Implications: Ambient air toxics observation networks have limited ability to characterize the broad suite of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) that affect exposures across multiple spatial scales. While our networks are best suited to capture major urban-scale signals of ubiquitous volatile organic compound HAPs, incorporation of sensing technologies that address regional and local-scale exposures should be pursued to address major gaps in spatial resolution. Caution should be exercised in interpreting HAPs observations based on data proximity to minimum detection limit and risk thresholds.

Trends in chemical composition of global and regional population-weighted fine particulate matter estimated for 25 years

We interpret in situ and satellite observations with a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem, downscaled to 0.1° × 0.1°) to understand global trends in population-weighted mean chemical composition of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Trends in observed and simulated population-weighted mean PM2.5 composition over 1989-2013 are highly consistent for PM2.5 (-2.4 vs -2.4%/yr), secondary inorganic aerosols (-4.3 vs -4.1%/yr), organic aerosols (OA, -3.6 vs -3.0%/yr) and black carbon (-4.3 vs -3.9%/yr) over North America, as well as for sulfate (-4.7 vs -5.8%/yr) over Europe. Simulated trends over 1998-2013 also have overlapping 95% confidence intervals with satellite-derived trends in population-weighted mean PM2.5 for 20 of 21 global regions. Over 1989-2013, most (79%) of the simulated increase in global population-weighted mean PM2.5 of 0.28 μg m-3yr-1 is explained by significantly (p < 0.05) increasing OA (0.10 μg m-3yr-1), nitrate (0.05 μg m-3yr-1), sulfate (0.04 μg m-3yr-1), and ammonium (0.03 μg m-3yr-1). These four components predominantly drive trends in population-weighted mean PM2.5 over populous regions of South Asia (0.94 μg m-3yr-1), East Asia (0.66 μg m-3yr-1), Western Europe (-0.47 μg m-3yr-1), and North America (-0.32 μg m-3yr-1). Trends in area-weighted mean and population-weighted mean PM2.5 composition differ significantly.