Madhur Anand

Recent Widespread Tree Growth Decline Despite Increasing Atmospheric CO2

Background The synergetic effects of recent rising atmospheric CO2 and temperature are expected to favor tree growth in boreal and temperate forests. However, recent dendrochronological studies have shown site-specific unprecedented growth enhancements or declines. The question of whether either of these trends is caused by changes in the atmosphere remains unanswered because dendrochronology alone has not been able to clarify the physiological basis of such trends. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we combined standard dendrochronological methods with carbon isotopic analysis to investigate whether atmospheric changes enhanced water use efficiency (WUE) and growth of two deciduous and two coniferous tree species along a 9° latitudinal gradient across temperate and boreal forests in Ontario, Canada. Our results show that although trees have had around 53% increases in WUE over the past century, growth decline (measured as a decrease in basal area increment – BAI) has been the prevalent response in recent decades irrespective of species identity and latitude. Since the 1950s, tree BAI was predominantly negatively correlated with warmer climates and/or positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting warming induced water stress. However, where growth declines were not explained by climate, WUE and BAI were linearly and positively correlated, showing that declines are not always attributable to warming induced stress and additional stressors may exist. Conclusions Our results show an unexpected widespread tree growth decline in temperate and boreal forests due to warming induced stress but are also suggestive of additional stressors. Rising atmospheric CO2 levels during the past century resulted in consistent increases in water use efficiency, but this did not prevent growth decline. These findings challenge current predictions of increasing terrestrial carbon stocks under climate change scenarios.

Northward migrating trees establish in treefall gaps at the northern limit of the temperate–boreal ecotone, Ontario, Canada

Climate change is expected to promote migration of species. In ecotones, areas of ecological tension, disturbances may provide opportunities for some migrating species to establish in otherwise competitive environments. The size of and time since disturbance may determine the establishment ability of these species. We investigated gap dynamics of an old-growth red pine (Pinus resinosa Sol. ex Aiton) forest in the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence forest in northern Ontario, Canada, a transition zone between temperate and boreal forest. We investigated the effects of gaps of different sizes and ages on tree species abundance and basal area. Our results show that tree species from the temperate forest further south, such as red maple (Acer rubrum L.), red oak (Quercus rubra L.), and white pine (Pinus strobus L.), establish more often in large, old gaps; however, tree species that have more northern distributions, such as black spruce (Picea mariana Mill.), paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.), and red pine show no difference in establishment ability with gap size or age. These differences in composition could not be attributed to autogenic succession. We conclude that treefall gaps in this forest facilitate the establishment of northward migrating species, potentially providing a pathway for future forest migration in response to recent changes in climate.

Characterising biocomplexity and soil microbial dynamics along a smelter-damaged landscape gradient

Soil micro-organisms are an integral but often underestimated part of plant and soil ecosystems. Long-term industrial air pollution in the Sudbury, Ontario region has altered vegetation and soil, and therefore, possibly, soil microbial function. This study focuses on the historical pollution gradient resulting from a decommissioned smelter near Sudbury, and aims to determine the effect of contaminant concentrations (such as soil heavy metals) and environmental variables (such as soil moisture and vegetation cover) on soil microbial populations and diversity. Results suggest that increasing distance from the pollution source did not correlate well with increasing micro-organism population or diversity. Metal concentrations also did not correlate with microbial dynamics. Only soil nutrient abundance showed a significant relationship, and revealed that phosphorous may be the rate-limiting influence. Secondary affects of pollution such as soil erosion and removal of plant litter are suggested to be important causes. The study reinforces the complex nature of landscape scale recovery and shows that recovery pathways are not linear or dependent upon single variables.

Chaotic dynamics in a multispecies community

It is shown that community dynamics is neither haphazard nor completely directed. This is quite clear from our examination of a concrete example where recovery dynamics in vegetation progressed from an early phase of strong linear determinism to intense randomness with phase transition defined by density. Is it possible to reconstruct the two phase structure in simple mathematical terms? The results show that it is, and that the model is very simple: a discrete-time Markov chain with white noise. Interestingly, the long-term behaviour of the model is complex chaotic and explosive, suggesting that progression from dominant randomness to determinism is a distinctly probable event. And thus a conceptual foundation is laid, through interlinking initial condition, phase structure and explosive chaoticity, for a unifying theory, in which the classical hypotheses of community dynamics appear as special cases.

Rapid morphological change in stream beetle museum specimens correlates with climate change

Abstract 1. Climate change has been occurring at unprecedented rates and its impacts on biological populations is beginning to be well documented in the literature. For many species, however, long‐term records are not available, and trends have not been documented.

Evidence of shift in C4 species range in central Argentina during the late Holocene

AimMillennial-scale biogeographic changes are well understood in many parts of the world, but little is known about long-term vegetation dynamics in subtropical regions. Here we investigate shifts in C3/C4 plant abundance occurred in central Argentina during the past few millenniaMethodsWe determined present day soil organic matter δ13C signatures of grasslands, shrublands and woodlands, containing different mixtures of C3 and C4 plants. We measured past changes in the relative cover of C3/C4 plants by comparing δ13C values in soil profiles with present day δ13C signatures. We analyzed 14C activity in soil depths that showed major changes in vegetation.ResultsPresent day relative cover of C3/C4 plants determines whole ecosystem δ13C signatures integrated as litter and superficial soil organic matter (R2 = 0.78; p < 0.01). Deeper soils show a consistent shift in δ13C, indicating a continuous replacement of C4 by C3 plants since 3,870 (±210) YBP. During this period, the relative abundance of C3 plants increased 32% (average across sites) with significant changes being observed in all studied ecosystems.ConclusionsOur results show that C4 species were more abundant in the past, but C3 species became dominant during the late Holocene. We identified increases in the relative C3/C4 cover in grasslands, shrublands and woodlands, suggesting a physiological basis for changes in vegetation. The replacement of C4 by C3 plants coincided with changes in climate towards colder and wetter conditions and could represent a climatically driven shift in the C4 species optimum range.

Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human–environment systems

In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system’s dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled human–environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent environment model uncoupled from the human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled environment system. Moreover, the early warning signals in the coupled HES can be ambiguous, heralding either an era of ecosystem conservationism or collapse of both forest ecosystems and conservationism. The presence of human feedback in the coupled HES can also mitigate the early warning signal, making it more difficult to detect the oncoming regime shift. We furthermore show how the coupled HES can be “doomed to criticality”: Strategic human interactions cause the system to remain perpetually in the vicinity of a collapse threshold, as humans become complacent when the resource seems protected but respond rapidly when it is under immediate threat. We conclude that the opportunities, benefits, and challenges of modeling regime shifts and early warning signals in coupled HESs merit further research.

On hierarchical partitioning of an ecological complexity function

We examine a complexity function in terms of its partitionability across hierarchical levels. We use an ecological example and describe two models: partitions by levels in the natural dominance structure of a plant community, and by levels in an analytical hierarchy, constructed from measured species associations. Our results help to answer the frequently asked question of how much the levels of a structured system contribute to total complexity.

Interactions between climate change, competition, dispersal, and disturbances in a tree migration model

Potentially significant shifts in the geographical patterns of vegetation are an expected result of climate change. However, the importance of local processes (e.g., dispersal, competition, or disturbance) has been often ignored in climate change modeling. We develop an individual-based simulation approach to assess how these mechanisms affect migration rate. We simulate the northward progression of a theoretical tree species when climate change makes northern habitat suitable. We test how the rate of progression is affected by (1) competition with a resident species, (2) interactions with disturbance regimes, (3) species dispersal kernel, and (4) the intensity of climate change over time. Results reveal a strong response of species’ expansion rate to the presence of a local competitor, as well as nonlinear effects of disturbance. We discuss these results in light of current knowledge of northern forest dynamics and results found in the climatic research literature.

The impact of human-environment interactions on the stability of forest-grassland mosaic ecosystems

Forest-grassland mosaic ecosystems can exhibit alternative stables states, whereby under the same environmental conditions, the ecosystem could equally well reside either in one state or another, depending on the initial conditions. We develop a mathematical model that couples a simplified forest-grassland mosaic model to a dynamic model of opinions about conservation priorities in a population, based on perceptions of ecosystem rarity. Weak human influence increases the region of parameter space where alternative stable states are possible. However, strong human influence precludes bistability, such that forest and grassland either co-exist at a single, stable equilibrium, or their relative abundance oscillates. Moreover, a perturbation can shift the system from a stable state to an oscillatory state. We conclude that human-environment interactions can qualitatively alter the composition of forest-grassland mosaic ecosystems. The human role in such systems should be viewed as dynamic, responsive element rather than as a fixed, unchanging entity.