Madson Tavares Silva

Impact of global warming on the cowpea cultivation in the State of Paraíba.

No presente estudo se avaliam os impactos da mudanca do clima com base nos relatorios do Painel Intergovernamental em Mudancas do Clima (IPCC), no zoneamento agricola de riscos climaticos para a cultura do feijao-caupi (Vigna unguiculata L. Walp) cultivado em sistema de sequeiro, no Estado da Paraiba. Utilizou-se o modelo do balanco hidrico associado a tecnicas de geoprocessamento, e se objetivou a identificacao das regioes do Estado em que a cultura do feijao-caupi sofrera restricoes em face das mudancas climaticas. As variaveis consideradas no modelo foram precipitacao pluvial, coeficientes de cultura, evapotranspiracao potencial e duracao das fases fenologicas da cultura. Adotou-se, como limite para o indice de satisfacao da necessidade de agua para a cultura (ISNA), o valor de 0,50. A data foi considerada adequada para a semeadura quando a simulacao do balanco hidrico apresentou resultados de ISNA com frequencia minima de 80%, superior ao valor do criterio adotado. Tendo em vista um aumento de temperatura do ar de 3 e 6 oC, como sugerido pelo IPCC, o cultivo do feijao-caupi sofrera uma reducao significativa nas areas atualmente favoraveis ao seu cultivo no Estado da Paraiba.

Risco climático da cana-de-açúcar cultivada na região nordeste do Brasil

This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climatic risk of sugarcane crop grown in Northeastern Brazil based on IPCC reports. The water balance model combined with geospatial technologies (GIS) was used to identify regional areas where the crop will suffer yield reduction due to climate changes. The data used in the study were time series of precipitation at least 30 years of daily data, crop coefficients, potential evapotranspiration and duration of the crop cycle. A limit value of 0.65 was adopted for the water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI), which is defined as the ratio between actual evapotranspiration and maximum evapotranspiration (ETr/ETm). The scenarios used in simulations without an increase in air temperature and an increase of 1.5, 3 and 5 o C were associated with changes in precipitation of ±10, ±25 and ±40%. The results indicate that there is significant difference between the warming scenarios and the current weather conditions, in terms of the projected effects of temperature variation on the areas cultivated with sugarcane in the study region.

Os Impactos das Alterações Climáticas na Cana-de-Açúcar Cultivada em Sistema de Sequeiro na Região Nordeste do Brasil (The Impacts of the Climate Changes on Sugar Cane Cultivated in Rainfed Systems in Northeastern of Brazil)

Os impactos das alteracoes climaticas sobre o zoneamento agricola de risco climatico do cultivo da cana-de-acucar ( Saccharum officinarum L .) na regiao Nordeste do Brasil (NEB) sao analisados neste estudo. Foram utilizadas as series historicas de precipitacao pluvial com no minimo 30 anos de dados diarios, bem como o coeficiente de cultivo, a evapotranspiracao potencial e a duracao do ciclo da cultura. Adotou-se como criterio de corte para o Indice de Satisfacao das Necessidades de Agua para a cultura (ISNA), o valor 0,65. Os cenarios utilizados de alteracoes climaticas foram sem aumento na temperatura do ar e com aumentos de 1,5, 3 e 5oC associados as variacoes na precipitacao de ± 10, 25 e 40%. Os cenarios de mudancas climaticas analisados indicam reducao consideravel nas areas agricultaveis favoraveis ao cultivo da cana-de-acucar no NEB, afetando assim, as areas de producao da cultura. Existe diferenca relevante entre os cenarios sem aumento na temperatura do ar e os tres cenarios de aquecimento global. Palavras-chave: Mudancas climaticas, zoneamento agricola, evapotranspiracao, precipitacao pluvial. The Impacts of the Climate Changes on Sugar Cane Cultivated in Rainfed Systems in Northeastern of Brazil ABSTRACT The impacts of climate change on agricultural zoning of climate risk of sugar cane ( Saccharum officinarum L. ) in northeastern region of Brazil ( NEB, in portuguese) are analyzed in this study. It was used daily rainfall time series with at least 30 year as well as crop coefficients , potential evapotranspiration and length of crop cycle . It was adopted as criterion the value threshold of 0,65 for Water Requirements satisfaction index (WRSI) . The scenarios used of climate change were no increase in air temperature and increases of 1.5 , 3.0 and 5.0o C associated to changes in rainfall of ± 10 , 25 and 40 %. The analyzed climate change scenarios indicate a significant reducing in agricultural areas favorable to the cane sugar cultivation in the NEB , and therefore affecting the agricultural areas of sugar cane. There is a significant difference between the scenarios with no increase in temperature and three scenarios of global warming. Key words : Climate changes, agricultural zoning , evapotranspiration, precipitation .

O cultivo do algodão herbáceo no sistema de sequeiro no Nordeste do Brasil, no cenário de mudanças climática

The main objective of the study was to analyse the impact of climate change on upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L. latifolium Hutch) grown in Northeastern Brazil from estimates of the availability of land suitable for rainfed agriculture. This information, based on scenarios of increased temperature and rainfall variability of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was used in a model of inter-regional water balance. The data series used in the study were climatological daily rainfall of more than 30 years, crop coefficients, evapotranspiration potential and cycle length. The scenarios named A, B and C were related to increases in average air temperature of 1.5, 3.0 and 5.0 °C, respectively. In addition, these scenarios were associated with the precipitation fluctuations of ± 10, ± 25 and ± 40%.The Index Satisfaction of Water Requirements for crop (ISNA), defined as the ratio between the maximum evapotranspiration and actual evapotranspiration (ETa/ETm), was used as a criterion in defining areas favorable for cotton cultivation. The results obtained suggest that the climate change scenarios should lead to reduction in areas favorable for upland cotton in the entire northeast region of Brazil.

Climate risk in maize crop in the northeastern of Brazil based on climate change scenarios

Este estudo avalia os impactos das alteracoes climaticas sobre o zoneamento agricola de risco climatico do milho cultivado na regiao Nordeste do Brasil, com base nos relatorios do IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). O modelo de balanco hidrico, combinado com tecnicas de geoprocessamento, foi utilizado para identificar as areas da regiao de estudo onde a cultura podera sofrer restricoes de rendimento devido a mudanca do clima. Os dados utilizados no estudo foram as series historicas de precipitacao, com no minimo 30 anos de dados diarios, coeficientes de cultura, evapotranspiracao potencial e a duracao do ciclo da cultura. Os cenarios de aumento na temperatura do ar utilizados nas simulacoes foram de 1,5; 3,0 e 5,0 oC. A epoca de semeadura, de janeiro a marco, da cultura de milho e menos afetada pelos cenarios de aquecimento do que a semeadura nos meses de novembro e dezembro ou de abril e maio.

Trends in Temperature and Rainfall Extremes near the Artificial Sobradinho Lake, Brazil

The formation of artificial lake due construction of a hydroelectric plant causes irreversible environmental impacts. Studies associated with these artificial lakes for the Brazilian semiarid region are still insufficient. Thus, the objective of this study is to provide new information on the trends of climatic extremes, dependent on rainfall and air temperature, for the Sobradinho Hydroelectric Power Plant (SHPP) lake region, through the analysis of climate change indices. This study is particularly important for the SHPP region because microclimate changes have significant impacts on the natural, social and economic sectors. For the two analyzed stations (Bebedouro-PE and Mandacaru-BA), it is not possible to affirm that the construction of the SHPP artificial lake altered the local microclimate. Trends of increase in maximum temperature, the number of hot days and diurnal temperature range were noticed. However, the rise of these indices cannot be attributed to the formation of the SHPP lake. The influence of the SST of Tropical Oceans on the temporal behavior of some of the indices used in this study may have contributed to increases in hot days and nights, maximum temperature, diurnal temperature range and consecutive dry days over the region.

ANÁLISE DAS VARIAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS NA OCORRÊNCIA DE DOENÇAS RESPIRATÓRIAS POR INFLUENZA EM IDOSOS NA REGIÃO METROPOLITANA DE JOÃO PESSOA – PB

This work aimed to evaluate the effects of seasonal climatic variations in the incidence of respiratory diseases by influenza (PI) in the elderly population in the region of metropolitan João Pessoa in the state of Paraíba. Generalized linear models from the linear Poisson regression to relate the dependent variable set to the records of hospitalizations for causes associated with influenza and the independent variables (rainfall, average air temperature and relative humidity) to analyze the relations established by modeling has been used. Aditionally,was applied ANOVA variance test with a significance level of 0.05 of probability to determine which independent variables is more significant. Also the residual generated by adjusting the models in order to identify the distribution that best fitted the data were analyzed. All static analysis was performed using R software. In general is possible to identify that the highest peaks of hospitalizations for PI occur in autumn and winter. Therefore, these results suggest an association between cold and hospitalizations for IP. Statistical modeling performed satisfactory for analysis of the cases of hospitalizations for IP. However, the deepening of these temporal analysis is necessary because health depends not only on environmental factors.

Influência da Temperatura da Superfície do Mar na Ocorrência de Linhas de Instabilidade na Costa Norte e Nordeste do Brasil

Abstract This work aimed to verify the possible relationships of sampling points of the sea surface temperature spatially distrib-uted in the tropical Atlantic and the development of squall lines in North northeast coast of Brazil using techniques ofgeneralizedlinearmodeling.Forthis,weusedgeneralizedlinearmodelsfromthelinearregressionPoissonandnegativebinomial, for analysis of the relationship established by modeling was applied ANOVA variance test with significancelevel of 0.05 probability to determine which independent variables were more significant in modeling. Also the wastegenerated by the adjustment of the models in order to identify the distribution that best fitted the data were analyzed. AllstaticanalysiswasperformedinR.softwareAmongthe132pairsofobservations,themagnitudeofthecorrelationcoef-ficient of Pearson (r) ranged from 0.06 (p < 0.04) between (LI and TSM5) and 0.88 (p < 0.0001) (TSM2 and TSM5), de-spite relations TSM and episodes of LI present no linear relationship or perfect positive linear relationship between theRevista Brasileira de Meteorologia,

Modelagem Simplificada Para Estimativa do Balanço de Energia à Superfície em Escala Regional (R-SSEB)

Abstract This study presents a simplified methodology and adjusted from existing algorithms of orbital sensor data available fortheNortheastregionofBrazil(NEB)inordertooperationalizethespatialdeterminationofevapotranspiration(ET)onlywith remote sensing data, using Terra/MODIS data from 2002 to 2011. The results for various targets around the NEBwere compared with CLM ( Common Land Model) and MOD16 data. Was obtained average percentage error (MPE) andmean absolute error (MAE) of 23,6% and 181 mm.year -1 , respectively, when compared to CLM data. It was evaluatedthe ET obtained by the proposed algorithm with MOD16 ET data, resulting in EMP and EMA of 38,6% and 288mm.year -1 , respectively. The average annual data from ET ranged 482-1105 mm.year relating to areas of Caatinga andtropical rainforest, respectively. The results presented are consistent with the literature and showed that the proposedmethodology enables operationalize the computation of ET throughout the Northeast, despite the large topographic het-erogeneity and climate of the region.

Padrões Climáticos da Razão de Mistura do Ar em Minas Gerais/Brasil (Weather Patterns of Air Mixing Ratio in Minas Gerais/Brazil)

Padroes espaco-temporais da razao de mistura no estado de Minas Gerais serao definidos neste trabalho. Para isso, foram empregadas as tecnicas multivariadas de Analise de Componentes Principais e de Agrupamentos aos dados mensais de razao de mistura de 39 estacoes climatologicas com 30 anos comuns de observacoes. O emprego da ACP mostrou a existencia de dois padroes dominantes da razao de mistura que explicaram aproximadamente 98% da variância total dos dados. O primeiro, relacionado a maior concentracao de umidade, mostra a atuacao da ZCAS, dos sistemas frontais e influencia orografica. O segundo esta associado ao ASAS. As tres regioes homogeneas de razao de mistura, utilizando o metodo hierarquico de Ward, identificaram bem a sazonalidade dessa componente termodinâmica. Portanto, os resultados obtidos evidenciaram que as chuvas de verao e outono sao influenciadas pelas ZCAS e pelos sistemas frontais. No inverno, esses sistemas enfraquecem e a intensidade das chuvas diminui na regiao. A B S T R A C T Space-time standards of mixing ratio in the state of Minas Gerais will be defined in this work. For this, we used multivariate techniques of Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis to monthly data of mixing ratio of 39 weather stations with 30 years of common observations. The use of PCA showed the existence of two dominant patterns of mixing ratio that accounted for approximately 98% of the total variance. The first, related to higher moisture concentration, shows the performance of the SACZ, of the frontal systems and orographic influence. The second is associated with Subtropical Anticyclone of the South Atlantic (SASA). The three homogeneous regions of mixing ratio, using the hierarchical method of Ward, identified seasonality of this thermodynamic component. Therefore, the results showed that the summer rains and autumn are influenced by SACZ and the frontal systems. In winter, these systems weaken and the intensity of rainfall decreases in the region. Keywords: multivariate techniques, weather systems and climate variability.