Magali Mazuy

Les naissances sont retardées mais la fécondité est stable

The number of births in France has been roughly constant since 1976, the year of stabilization at the end of the baby boom. After declining in the early 1990s, it has been increasing since 1995 despite the fall in the number of people of an age to be parents : the first baby boomers now approaching retirement age will have had an average of 2.1 children per woman, but will be replaced by smaller cohorts after 1973 due to the delayed age at childbearing. This delay accounts for the total period fertility rate being stable since 1976 at a lower level, of around 1.8 children per woman; a model in which the fertility of women who are already mothers varies with the age of the last child, and not with the age of the mother, produces an estimate of over 2.0 children per woman, close to the completed cohort fertility. The latter will decline slightly for the post 1956 birth cohorts, and is projected to stabilize at around 2.0 children per woman for the 1970 cohort, due to a slight increase in women who will remain childless. Notwithstanding this increase in childlessness, the distribution of women by number of children has been remarkably stable for twenty-five years : family sizes are very homogeneous since nearly two in five women have exactly two children.

Kinderlosigkeit in Frankreich

In der aktuellen Diskussion um sinkende Geburtenraten, hohe Kinderlosigkeit und reformbedurftige familienpolitische Rahmenbedingungen in Deutschland wird oftmals das Beispiel Frankreich herangezogen. Frankreich gilt als familienpolitisches Musterland, in dem nicht nur die Frauenerwerbsquote hoch ist, sondern gleichzeitig auch eine deutlich hohere Geburtenrate als in anderen europaischen Staaten beobachtet werden kann. Frankreich hatte 2009 nach Island und Irland mit durchschnittlich zwei Kindern pro Frau die dritthochste Geburtenziffer in Westeuropa (Eurostat 2012a). Wahrend in Deutschland rund ein Viertel der Frauen kinderlos bleiben, sind es in Frankreich lediglich elf Prozent.

L'évolution démographique récente en France: dix ans pour le pacs, plus d'un million de contractants

The population of metropolitan France (mainland and Corsica) on 1 January 2009 was estimated at 63.2 million. Natural growth was again strongly positive in 2008, and almost identical to that of 2007, with the increase in births partly offset by a rise in deaths. The number of foreigners admitted for residence fell slightly more sharply in 2007 than in the two previous years. The estimated total fertility rate was 2 children per woman in 2008, a level close to the completed fertility of the 1970 cohort. The number of abortions remained stable, but their frequency increased slightly among the youngest women. The number of PACS civil partnerships signed in 2008 increased yet again, both for same-sex couples and for heterosexual couples. Marriages fell slightly, and the probability of marrying for single people has never been lower. Most of the divorces pronounced in 2008 were by mutual consent. Male life expectancy at birth increased slightly (+ 0.14 years) and that of women remained stable (? 0.06 years).

Childlessness in France

Even though the average age at first childbirth has been increasing and education and employment options for women have improved immensely in recent decades, in France, unlike in other European countries, these developments have not led to a major increase in childlessness. Birth rates remain high and the share of the population who are childless is among the lowest in western Europe. This article discusses the historical roots as well as the societal conditions, institutional regulations, and political decisions that may explain the low levels of childlessness in France. We also discuss differences in rates of childlessness by education and occupation. Using a large representative survey on family life that was conducted parallel to the French census in 2011, we study the fertility histories of men and women born between the 1920s and late 1970s. We find that while the differences in fertility by level of education seem to have declined, having a higher education is still an obstacle to parenthood for women. For men, having a low educational and occupational status is associated with a greater likelihood of being childless. A large part of the differences in rates of childlessness between social groups can be traced back to the men and women who have never lived in a couple relationship; thus, partnership status can be regarded as a decisive parameter of the extent of childlessness.

L'évolution démographique récente en France.

El primero de enero de 2010, Francia metropolitana cuenta con 62,8 millones de habitantes. El crecimiento (5,2°/°°) ha sido un poco mas bajo que en 2008 pues el saldo natural ha disminuido ligeramente. Despues de tres anos de baja, el numero de extranjeros aceptados oficialmente para residir en Francia ha aumentado un poco en 2008; los inmigrantes nacidos en Argelia y en Marruecos son ahora mas numerosos que los nacidos en Portugal. El indice sintetico de fecundidad ha retrocedido ligeramente pero se mantiene muy cercano a los 2 hijos por mujer; la edad media a la maternidad alcanza los 30 anos. El indice sintetico del aborto voluntario se mantiene elevado en 2007 (0,53 abortos por mujer). La edad al primer aborto tiende a bajar, y la frecuencia de los abortos repetidos a aumentar. El aumento del numero de Pacs (Pacto civil de solidaridad) continua en 2009 y, a pesar de la disminucion de los matrimonios, el numero total de uniones oficiales aumenta. La probabilidad de matrimonio de los solteros continua disminuyendo, mientras que el indice sintetico de divorcio disminuye todavia ligeramente en 2009, aunque se queda cercano a 45 %. En razon del aumento de las rupturas de union, los hombres y las mujeres adultos viven un poco menos frecuentemente en union en 2006 que en 1999, y viven mas frecuentemente solos o en familia monoparental. La progresion de la esperanza de vida al nacimiento ha proseguido en 2009, despues de una pausa para las mujeres en 2008: en 2009, se la estima a 77,8 anos para los hombres y a 84,5 para las mujeres.