Magda E. S. de F. Wehrmann

O Papel das Oleaginosas em um Cenário de Mudanças Climáticas no Semiárido Brasileiro (The Role of Oilseeds in a Climate Change Scenario in the Brazilian Semiarid)

Este trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar, ainda que de forma preliminar, os efeitos limitantes das mudancas climaticas na producao de oleaginosas agro-energetica no semiarido brasileiro, nomeadamente a reducao dos indices pluviometricos e aumento de temperatura. Para alcancar este objetivo usa-se como referencia a evolucao de variaveis climaticas, por meio da serie historica entre 1973 e 2010, e projecoes futuras tendo por base os cenarios de mudancas climaticas, desenvolvidos para o nordeste brasileiro ate 2100. O recorte geografico e a regiao de Irece, no semiarido da Bahia, tradicional reduto da agricultura familiar e grande produtor de alimentos consorciado com oleaginosas. O estudo mostra que as culturas tradicionais de oleaginosas estao proximas aos limites de exigencias hidricas, pelo que, para enfrentar as mudancas nos padroes climaticos, vai ser necessario um melhoramento genetico das culturas tradicionais para que essa especies consigam tolerar as restricoes hidricas. Preconizando-se igualmente a introducao de especies mais rusticas e com maior resistencia ao estresse hidrico. Palavras-Chave: Agricultura Familiar, Vulnerabilidade e Adaptacao as Mudancas Climaticas, Biodiesel, Semiarido. The Role of Oilseeds in a Climate Change Scenario in the Brazilian Semiarid ABSTRACT The present study aims to evaluate the effects of climate changes on the production of oilseed and energy crops in the Brazilian semiarid region. The study is based on the analysis of past climate, by evaluating a historic series of rain and temperature from 1973 to 2010. This historic series is, then, compared to a future climate prediction, based on climatic change scenarios developed for the Brazilian northeast until 2100. The geographic location of the study is the Irece area of the State of Bahia, in the semi-arid northeast. That is a traditional family agriculture area with a strong food crop and oilseeds production. The study shows that traditional oilseed crops are being cultivated near the limits of their water needs. In order to face the climate changes, such crops would need to be genetically improved to increase their tolerance to water stress. An option would be to introduce species with higher level of tolerance to water stress. Keywords: family agriculture, vulnerability and adaptation to climate changes, biodiesel, semiarid.