Magdalena Mosionek-Schweda

The Use of Discriminant Analysis to Predict the Bankruptcy of Companies Listed on the NewConnect Market

The aim of this article is to analyze and evaluate the usability of discriminant models in predicting bankruptcy for companies listed on NewConnect. This mar-ket was established in 2007 and operates as an alternative trading system next to Warsaw Stock Exchange S.A., which in practice means that its regulatory regime in relation to issuers and listed companies is not as strict as the one applicable to the main market, therefore shares of small and medium-size businesses, including start-ups, can be listed on NewConnect. In this paper, discriminant models are used to analyse the financial situation of four companies removed from trading on NewConnect due to bankruptcy, Perfect Line S.A., Promet S.A., InwazjaPC S.A. and Budostal-5 S.A. The analysis is based on three models: Altmans model for emerging markets, as well as two models of the highest predictive ability accord-ing to P. Antonowiczs research, Z7INEPAN model developed in the Polish Academy of Sciences and E. Maczynskas model, developed by Polish scientists and adapted to the Polish economy. The results confirm that these models are a valu-able tool in assessing the financial condition of enterprises and allow for bank-ruptcy forecasting. Their application to companies listed on NewConnect, how-ever, may be limited due to the specific profile of these entities as most of these enterprises are in fact newly formed and therefore the existing empirical data may prove insufficient.

Determinants of Dividend Smoothing: The Case of the Turkish Stock Market

We examine the dividend smoothing behaviour of companies listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) in the period of 1996–2015. On the basis of Lintner’s dividend partial adjustment model, we calculate the speed of dividend adjustment (SOA) for individual companies from the research sample. As we find only 8% of the SOA results lower than 0.50 and almost 37% higher than 1.00, we ascertain that the Turkish stock market companies do not smooth the dividends. Nevertheless, we proceed to uncover the determinants of the level of the speed of adjustment coefficient. We find that the leverage, debt to equity ratio, current- and quick liquidity ratios, earnings retention ratio, payout and standard deviation of quick ratio statistically significantly affect the SOA level of individual companies in Turkey. In analysing the Istanbul Stock Exchange one should note that it has been operating in the current structure since April 2013 after the merger of all the exchanges functioning in the Turkish capital markets. Currently, the ISE is one of the largest regional stock exchanges, but despite its relatively huge liquidity, it is also risky because of the political pressure. In 2013–2016, the ISE greatly deteriorated in its capitalisation and turnover because of political events. These circumstances may have affected the obtained results.

Financing of European infrastructure investments through the bond market

The aim of this article is to evaluate the Project Bond Initiative, which is one of the main elements of the Connecting Europe Facility for financing priority infrastructure projects in transport, energy and ICT. In 2012–2016, the pilot phase of the initiative was conducted, qualifying eight projects to receive support. The essence of this initiative is to divide the debt bonds issued in connection with the financing of the project into a senior tranche and a subordinated tranche, and then for the European Investment Bank to grant financial support or a guarantee to the subordinated tranche. This guarantee is to improve the credit quality of the senior debt to the level expected by institutional investors, thereby facilitating the raising of funds for infrastructure investments through the bond market. The results of the pilot phase confirm that the Project Bond Initiative may be an effective tool to stimulate investment in infrastructure and commitment of long-term investors to such projects, however, it has weaknesses to be considered before its full implementation. The article is based on literature studies, examination of the EU legislation and case studies of projects supported under the pilot phase of the initiative.

Organization, operation and reforms of the Norwegian pension scheme in the light of demographic trends

The aim of this article is to present the principles of the Norwegian pension scheme, which is being reorganized since 1 January 2011 with regard to the acquisition and determination of pension rights and the possibility of combining work with pension in the light of demographic challenges. The phenomenon of an aging population (which is the result of, i.a., rising longevity and declining fertility rate) and the migration processes have become a serious threat to public pension systems of most countries. For this reason, they decided to implement radical reforms in the retirement security of citizens. Among these countries was also Norway, despite the fact that its liberal immigration policy, very high fertility rate and, primarily, the funds collected in the state pension fund seem to protect its pension system, as well as public finances, against the collapse. The choice of the subject was influenced by the growing popularity of Norway as a destination for employment and by the considerable complexity of the Norwegian pension scheme, especially in the ongoing transition period in which the old and new regulations operate simultaneously. This paper is based on the materials collected in the branches of the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) in Stavanger, statistical data and analyses compiled by Statistics Norway (SSB), as well as the information published by NAV and the Norwegian Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs.

Finansowanie bankowości spółdzielczej w drodze emisji obligacji na rynku Catalyst

Catalyst is a system of trading and authorization of debt securities consisting of regulated markets and alternative trading platforms. It was launched on 30 September, 2009 as a joint venture of the Warsaw Stock Exchange and BondSpot. The Catalyst architecture was designed purposefully to allow the inflow of capital to a wide range of issuers, including entities denied access to the stock market, i.e. limited liability companies, local government units as well as cooperative banks. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the issue of bonds of cooperative banks listed on Catalyst from 28 July, 2010 (the day of the first IPOs of cooperative banks) to the end of May 2014. The study includes all debt instruments introduced to the market at that time by cooperative banks in each of the Catalyst submarkets. The material consists of parameters for each issue of bonds derived from the Catalyst statistical bulletins and information documents published by issuers. The characteristics of some issues were also acquired at Cbonds.pl.