Magnus Janzon

Cardiovascular risk in post-myocardial infarction patients : nationwide real world data demonstrate the importance of a long-term perspective.

AIMS Long-term disease progression following myocardial infarction (MI) is not well understood. We examined the risk of subsequent cardiovascular events in patients discharged after MI in Sweden. METHODS AND RESULTS This was a retrospective, cohort study linking morbidity, mortality, and medication data from Swedish national registries. Of 108 315 patients admitted to hospital with a primary MI between 1 July 2006 and 30 June 2011 (index MI), 97 254 (89.8%) were alive 1 week after discharge and included in this study. The primary composite endpoint of risk for non-fatal MI, non-fatal stroke, or cardiovascular death was estimated for the first 365 days post-index MI and Day 366 to study completion. Risk and risk factors were assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards modelling, respectively. Composite endpoint risk was 18.3% during the first 365 days post-index MI. Age [60-69 vs. <60 years: HR (95% CI): 1.37 (1.30-1.45); 70-79 vs. <60 years: 2.13 (2.03-2.24); >80 vs. <60 years: 3.96 (3.78-4.15)], prior MI [1.44 (1.40-1.49)], stroke [1.49 (1.44-1.54)], diabetes [1.37 (1.34-1.40)], heart failure [1.57 (1.53-1.62)] and no index MI revascularisation [1.88 (1.83-1.93)] were each independently associated with a higher risk of ischaemic events or death. For patients without a combined endpoint event during the first 365 days, composite endpoint risk was 20.0% in the following 36 months. CONCLUSIONS Risk of cardiovascular events appeared high beyond the first year post-MI, indicating a need for prolonged surveillance, particularly in patients with additional risk factors.

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of biomarkers for the prioritisation of patients awaiting coronary revascularisation: a systematic review and decision model

OBJECTIVE To determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a range of strategies based on conventional clinical information and novel circulating biomarkers for prioritising patients with stable angina awaiting coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). DATA SOURCES MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched from 1966 until 30 November 2008. REVIEW METHODS We carried out systematic reviews and meta-analyses of literature-based estimates of the prognostic effects of circulating biomarkers in stable coronary disease. We assessed five routinely measured biomarkers and the eight emerging (i.e. not currently routinely measured) biomarkers recommended by the European Society of Cardiology Angina guidelines. The cost-effectiveness of prioritising patients on the waiting list for CABG using circulating biomarkers was compared against a range of alternative formal approaches to prioritisation as well as no formal prioritisation. A decision-analytic model was developed to synthesise data on a range of effectiveness, resource use and value parameters necessary to determine cost-effectiveness. A total of seven strategies was evaluated in the final model. RESULTS We included 390 reports of biomarker effects in our review. The quality of individual study reports was variable, with evidence of small study (publication) bias and incomplete adjustment for simple clinical information such as age, sex, smoking, diabetes and obesity. The risk of cardiovascular events while on the waiting list for CABG was 3 per 10,000 patients per day within the first 90 days (184 events in 9935 patients with a mean of 59 days at risk). Risk factors associated with an increased risk, and included in the basic risk equation, were age, diabetes, heart failure, previous myocardial infarction and involvement of the left main coronary artery or three-vessel disease. The optimal strategy in terms of cost-effectiveness considerations was a prioritisation strategy employing biomarker information. Evaluating shorter maximum waiting times did not alter the conclusion that a prioritisation strategy with a risk score using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was cost-effective. These results were robust to most alternative scenarios investigating other sources of uncertainty. However, the cost-effectiveness of the strategy using a risk score with both eGFR and C-reactive protein (CRP) was potentially sensitive to the cost of the CRP test itself (assumed to be 6 pounds in the base-case scenario). CONCLUSIONS Formally employing more information in the prioritisation of patients awaiting CABG appears to be a cost-effective approach and may result in improved health outcomes. The most robust results relate to a strategy employing a risk score using conventional clinical information together with a single biomarker (eGFR). The additional prognostic information conferred by collecting the more costly novel circulating biomarker CRP, singly or in combination with other biomarkers, in terms of waiting list prioritisation is unlikely to be cost-effective.

Frailty Is Independently Associated With Short-Term Outcomes for Elderly Patients With Non–ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Background— For the large and growing population of elderly patients with cardiovascular disease, it is important to identify clinically relevant measures of biological age and their contribution to risk. Frailty is an emerging concept in medicine denoting increased vulnerability and decreased physiological reserves. We analyzed the manner in which the variable frailty predicts short-term outcomes for elderly non–ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients. Methods and Results— Patients aged ≥75 years, with diagnosed non–ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction were included at 3 centers, and clinical data including judgment of frailty were collected prospectively. Frailty was defined according to the Canadian Study of Health and Aging Clinical Frailty Scale. The impact of the comorbid conditions on risk was quantified by the coronary artery disease–specific index. Of 307 patients, 149 (48.5%) were considered frail. By multiple logistic regression, frailty was found to be strongly and independently associated with risk for the primary composite outcome (death from any cause, myocardial reinfarction, revascularization due to ischemia, hospitalization for any cause, major bleeding, stroke/transient ischemic attack, and need for dialysis up to 1 month after inclusion) (odds ratio, 2.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.3–3.7), in-hospital mortality (odds ratio, 4.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.3–16.8), and 1-month mortality (odds ratio, 4.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.7–13.0). Conclusions— Frailty is strongly and independently associated with in-hospital mortality, 1-month mortality, prolonged hospital care, and the primary composite outcome. The combined use of frailty and comorbidity may constitute an ultimate risk prediction concept in regard to cardiovascular patients with complex needs. Clinical Trial Registration— http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01049997.

Cost-effectiveness of treating acute coronary syndrome patients with ticagrelor for 12 months: results from the PLATO study.

AIMS The efficacy and safety of ticagrelor vs. clopidogrel in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) are well documented in the PLATelet inhibition and patient Outcomes trial (PLATO). The aim of this study was to assess the long-term cost-effectiveness of treating ACS patients for 12 months with ticagrelor compared with generic clopidogrel. METHODS AND RESULTS Event rates, health-care costs, and health-related quality of life during 12 months of therapy with either ticagrelor or generic clopidogrel were estimated from PLATO. Beyond 12 months, quality-adjusted survival and costs were estimated conditional on whether a non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), a non-fatal stroke, or no MI or stroke occurred during the 12 months of therapy. Lifetime costs, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated for both treatment strategies. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were presented from a health-care perspective in 2010 Euros (€) applying unit costs and life tables from a Swedish setting in the base-case analysis. Treatment with ticagrelor was associated with increased health-care costs of €362 and a QALY gain of 0.13 compared with generic clopidogrel, yielding a cost per QALY gained with ticagrelor of €2753. The cost per life year gained was €2372. The results were consistent in major subgroups. Sensitivity analyses showed a cost per QALY gained with ticagrelor of ∼€7300 under certain scenarios. CONCLUSION Based on clinical and health-economic evidence from the PLATO study, treating ACS patients with ticagrelor for 12 months is associated with a cost per QALY below generally accepted thresholds for cost-effectiveness. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00391872.

Cost-effectiveness of dabigatran compared with warfarin for patients with atrial fibrillation in Sweden.

AIMS Patients with atrial fibrillation have a significantly increased risk of thromboembolic events such as ischaemic stroke, and patients are therefore recommended to be treated with anticoagulation treatment. The most commonly used anticoagulant consists of vitamin K antagonist such as warfarin. A new oral anticoagulation treatment, dabigatran, has recently been approved for stroke prevention among patients with atrial fibrillation. The purpose of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dabigatran as preventive treatment of stroke and thromboembolic events compared with warfarin in 65-year-old patients with atrial fibrillation in Sweden. METHODS AND RESULTS A decision analytic simulation model was used to estimate the long-term (20-year) costs and effects of the different treatments. The outcome measures are the number of strokes prevented, life years gained, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. Costs and effect data are adjusted to a Swedish setting. Patients below 80 years of age are assumed to start with dabigatran 150 mg twice a day and switch to 110 mg twice a day at the age of 80 years due to higher bleeding risk. The price of dabigatran in Sweden is €2.82 (Swedish kronor 25.39) per day for both doses. The cost per QALY gained for dabigatran compared with warfarin is estimated at €7742, increasing to €12 449 if dabigatran is compared with only well-controlled warfarin treatment. CONCLUSION Dabigatran is a cost-effective treatment in Sweden, as its incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is below the normally accepted willingness to pay limit.

Assessing the cost effectiveness of using prognostic biomarkers with decision models: case study in prioritising patients waiting for coronary artery surgery

Objective To determine the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of using information from circulating biomarkers to inform the prioritisation process of patients with stable angina awaiting coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Design Decision analytical model comparing four prioritisation strategies without biomarkers (no formal prioritisation, two urgency scores, and a risk score) and three strategies based on a risk score using biomarkers: a routinely assessed biomarker (estimated glomerular filtration rate), a novel biomarker (C reactive protein), or both. The order in which to perform coronary artery bypass grafting in a cohort of patients was determined by each prioritisation strategy, and mean lifetime costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) were compared. Data sources Swedish Coronary Angiography and Angioplasty Registry (9935 patients with stable angina awaiting coronary artery bypass grafting and then followed up for cardiovascular events after the procedure for 3.8 years), and meta-analyses of prognostic effects (relative risks) of biomarkers. Results The observed risk of cardiovascular events while on the waiting list for coronary artery bypass grafting was 3 per 10 000 patients per day within the first 90 days (184 events in 9935 patients). Using a cost effectiveness threshold of £20 000-£30 000 (€22 000-€33 000;

Frailty is independently associated with 1-year mortality for elderly patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

32 000-

Cost and health outcome of primary percutaneous coronary intervention versus thrombolysis in acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction-Results of the Swedish Early Decision reperfusion Study (SWEDES) trial.

48 000) per additional QALY, a prioritisation strategy using a risk score with estimated glomerular filtration rate was the most cost effective strategy (cost per additional QALY was <£410 compared with the Ontario urgency score). The impact on population health of implementing this strategy was 800 QALYs per 100 000 patients at an additional cost of £245 000 to the National Health Service. The prioritisation strategy using a risk score with C reactive protein was associated with lower QALYs and higher costs compared with a risk score using estimated glomerular filtration rate. Conclusion Evaluating the cost effectiveness of prognostic biomarkers is important even when effects at an individual level are small. Formal prioritisation of patients awaiting coronary artery bypass grafting using a routinely assessed biomarker (estimated glomerular filtration rate) along with simple, routinely collected clinical information was cost effective. Prioritisation strategies based on the prognostic information conferred by C reactive protein, which is not currently measured in this context, or a combination of C reactive protein and estimated glomerular filtration rate, is unlikely to be cost effective. The widespread practice of using only implicit or informal means of clinically ordering the waiting list may be harmful and should be replaced with formal prioritisation approaches.

Radiofrequency ablation as initial therapy in paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: results on health-related quality of life and symptom burden. The MANTRA-PAF trial

Background For the large population of elderly patients with cardiovascular disease, it is crucial to identify clinically relevant measures of biological age and their contribution to risk. Frailty is denoting decreased physiological reserves and increased vulnerability. We analysed the manner in which the variable frailty is associated with 1-year outcomes for elderly non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) patients. Methods and Results Patients aged 75 years or older, with diagnosed NSTEMI were included at three centres, and clinical data including judgment of frailty were collected prospectively. Frailty was defined according to the Canadian Study of Health and Aging Clinical Frailty Scale. Of 307 patients, 149 (48.5%) were considered frail. By Cox regression analyses, frailty was found to be independently associated with 1-year mortality after adjusting for cardiovascular risk and comorbid conditions (hazard ratio 4.3, 95% CI 2.4–7.8). The time to the first event was significantly shorter for frail patients than for nonfrail (34 days, 95% CI 10–58, p = 0.005). Conclusions Frailty is strongly and independently associated with 1-year mortality. The combined use of frailty and comorbidity may constitute an important risk prediction concept in regard to cardiovascular patients with complex needs.

Wolff-Parkinson-White Syndrome and Atrioventricular Nodal Re-Entry Tachycardia in a Swedish Population: Consequences on Health-Related Quality of Life

BACKGROUND In ST-elevation myocardial infarction, primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has a superior clinical outcome, but it may increase costs in comparison to thrombolysis. The aim of the study was to compare costs, clinical outcome, and quality-adjusted survival between primary PCI and thrombolysis. METHODS Patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction were randomized to primary PCI with adjunctive enoxaparin and abciximab (n = 101), or to enoxaparin followed by reteplase (n = 104). Data on the use of health care resources, work loss, and health-related quality of life were collected during a 1-year period. Cost-effectiveness was determined by comparing costs and quality-adjusted survival. The joint distribution of incremental costs and quality-adjusted survival was analyzed using a nonparametric bootstrap approach. RESULTS Clinical outcome did not differ significantly between the groups. Compared with the group treated with thrombolysis, the cost of interventions was higher in the PCI-treated group (