Magnuz Engardt

An Eulerian Limited-Area Atmospheric Transport Model

Abstract A limited-area, offline, Eulerian atmospheric transport model has been developed. The model is based on a terrain-following vertical coordinate and a mass-conserving, positive definite advection scheme with small phase and amplitude errors. The objective has been to develop a flexible, all-purpose offline model. The model includes modules for emission input, vertical turbulent diffusion, and deposition processes. The model can handle an arbitrary number of chemical components and provides a framework for inclusion of modules describing physical and chemical transformation processes between different components. Idealized test cases, as well as simulations of the atmospheric distribution of 222Rn, demonstrate the ability of the model to meet the requirements of mass conservation and positiveness and to produce realistic simulations of a simple atmospheric tracer.

The MICS-Asia study: model intercomparison of long-range transport and sulfur deposition in East Asia

Abstract An intercomparison study involving eight long-range transport models for sulfur deposition in East Asia has been initiated. The participating models included Eulerian and Lagrangian frameworks, with a wide variety of vertical resolutions and numerical approaches. Results from this study, in which models used common data sets for emissions, meteorology, and dry, wet and chemical conversion rates, are reported and discussed. Model results for sulfur dioxide and sulfate concentrations, wet deposition amounts, for the period January and May 1993, are compared with observed quantities at 18 surface sites in East Asia. At many sites the ensemble of models is found to have high skill in predicting observed quantities. At other sites all models show poor predictive capabilities. Source–receptor relationships estimated by the models are also compared. The models show a high degree of consistency in identifying the main source–receptor relationships, as well as in the relative contributions of wet/dry pathways for removal. But at some locations estimated deposition amounts can vary by a factor or 5. The influence of model structure and parameters on model performance is discussed. The main factors determining the deposition fields are the emissions and underlying meteorological fields. Model structure in terms of vertical resolution is found to be more important than the parameterizations used for chemical conversion and removal, as these processes are highly coupled and often work in compensating directions.

European ozone in a future climate: Importance of changes in dry deposition and isoprene emissions

[1] Using a regional chemistry transport model (CTM) driven with meteorological data from a regional climate model (A2 emission scenario) we have investigated important processes for determining su ...

Ozone risk for vegetation in the future climate of Europe based on stomatal ozone uptake calculations

The negative impacts of surface ozone (O3) on vegetation are determined by external exposure, leaf gas exchange and plant antioxidant defence capacity, all dependent on climate and CO2 concentrations. In this study the influence of climate change on simulated stomatal O3 uptake of a generic crop and a generic deciduous tree at ten European sites was investigated, using the LRTAP Mapping Manual stomatal flux model. O3 concentrations are calculated by a chemistry transport model (MATCH) for three 30-yr time-windows (1961–1990, 2021–2050, 2071–2100), with constant precursor emissions and meteorology from a regional climate model (RCA3). Despite substantially increased modelled future O3 concentrations in central and southern Europe, the flux-based risk for O3 damage to vegetation is predicted to remain unchanged or decrease at most sites, mainly as a result of projected reductions in stomatal conductance under rising CO2 concentrations. Drier conditions in southern Europe are also important for this result. At northern latitudes, the current parameterisation of the stomatal conductance model suggest O3 uptake to be mainly limited by temperature. This study demonstrates the importance of accounting for the influences by climate and CO2 on stomatal O3 uptake, and of developing their representation in models, for risk assessment involving climate change.

Climate and Emission Changes Contributing to Changes in Near-surface Ozone in Europe over the Coming Decades: Results from Model Studies

Abstract We used an off-line, regional, model of atmospheric transport and chemistry to investigate current and future levels of near-surface ozone and accumulated ozone exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb(v) (AOT40) in Europe. To describe the current situation and enable an evaluation of the models performance we simulated a number of years around 2000. To assess changes in ozone concentrations due to possible emission changes in Europe, the model was run with the meteorology of the early 2000s and precursor emissions from a set of Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) emissions scenarios. By extrapolation of the observed increase in near-surface O3 at coastal locations in northwest Europe we constructed model boundaries that were used to simulate the impact of increasing hemispheric background in 2020. To assess changes in ozone concentrations due to climate change, the model was run with recent (2000) emissions but using meteorology from a regional climate model simulating a control (1961–1990) and a future (2021–2050) climate. The results indicate that climate change will have a small impact on ozone concentrations and AOT40 in the Nordic countries. Changes in hemispheric background concentrations and changes in precursor emissions in Europe will have a larger effect on ozone in Northern Europe. The situation is quite different in southern Europe, where climate change is expected to result in a very large increase in near-surface ozone concentrations.

Sulphur Simulations for East Asia Using the Match Model with Meteorological Data from ECMWF

Sulphur transport and conversion calculations have been conducted over an East Asian domain as part of a model intercomparison exercise. We hereby describe the MATCH model, used in the study, and discuss the results achieved with different model configurations. We find that is often more critical to choose a representative gridbox value than selecting a specific parameter value from the suite available. The modelled, near-surface, atmospheric concentration of total-sulphur (SO2+sulphate) in eastern China is typically 5–10 µg S m−3, with large areas exceeding 20 µg S m−3. In southern Japan the values range from 2–5 µg S m−3. Atmospheric SO2 dominates over sulphate near the emission regions while sulphate concentrations are higher over e.g. the western Pacific. The sulphur deposition exceeds several g sulphur m−2 year−1 in large areas of China. Southern Japan receives 0.5–1 g S m−2 year−1.

Past, present and future concentrations of ground-level ozone and potential impacts on ecosystems and human health in northern Europe

This review summarizes new information on the current status of ground-level ozone in Europe north of the Alps. There has been a re-distribution in the hourly ozone concentrations in northern Europe during 1990-2015. The highest concentrations during summer daytime hours have decreased while the summer night-time and winter day- and night-time concentrations have increased. The yearly maximum 8-h mean concentrations ([O3]8h,max), a metric used to assess ozone impacts on human health, have decreased significantly during 1990-2015 at four out of eight studied sites in Fennoscandia and northern UK. Also the annual number of days when the yearly [O3]8h,max exceeded the EU Environmental Quality Standard (EQS) target value of 60ppb has decreased. In contrast, the number of days per year when the yearly [O3]8h,max exceeded 35ppb has increased significantly at two sites, while it decreased at one far northern site. [O3]8h,max is predicted not to exceed 60ppb in northern UK and Fennoscandia after 2020. However, the WHO EQS target value of 50ppb will still be exceeded. The AOT40 May-July and AOT40 April-September metrics, used for the protection of vegetation, have decreased significantly at three and four sites, respectively. The EQS for the protection of forests, AOT40 April-September 5000ppbh, is projected to no longer be exceeded for most of northern Europe sometime before the time period 2040-2059. However, if the EQS is based on Phytotoxic Ozone Dose (POD), POD1, it may still be exceeded by 2050. The increasing trend for low and medium range ozone concentrations in combination with a decrease in high concentrations indicate that a new control strategy, with a larger geographical scale than Europe and including methane, is needed for ozone abatement in northern Europe.

A meridional profile of the chemical composition of submicrometre particles over the East Atlantic Ocean: regional and hemispheric variabilities

Within the framework of SWEDARP (Swedish Antarctic Program) 92/93 an aerosol sampling program was carried out on board of M/S Polarbjörn which carried staff and material to the Nordic Antarctic field exercises during the Austral summer 1992/1993. The cruise started 11 November 1992 from Oslo, went via Cape Town to Antarctica, and then back to Cape Town where the ship arrived on 4 January 1993. During the cruise, a meridional profile of physical and chemical submicrometre aerosol properties was derived covering the East Atlantic Ocean from 60°N to 70°S. The multicomponent aerosol data set combined with a trajectory analysis revealed a systematic meridional distribution of aerosol sources over the Atlantic that covered European and African continental plumes and, south of 15°S, a largely biologically controlled marine aerosol. Median number concentrations calculated over the whole cruise spanned a factor of 20 between 2000 and 100 cm−3, while total analyzed mass concentrations ranged between 7800 and 40 ng m3. From the biologically dominated subset of the data in the southern hemisphere, relationships were developed that allowed an apportionment of the observed sulfate and ammonium concentration to biogenic and anthropogenic sources over the whole meridional aerosol profile.

Model Intercomparison Study of Long Range Transport and Sulfur Deposition in East Asia (MICS-ASIA)

To help improve the use of models in science & policy analysis in Asia it is necessary to have a better understanding of model performance and uncertainties. Towards this goal an intercomparison exercise has been initiated as a collaborative study of scientists interested in long-range transport in East Asia. An overview of this study is presented in this paper. The study consists of a set of prescribed test calculations with carefully controlled experiments. Models used the same domain, emission inventory, model parameters, meteorological conditions, etc. Two periods (January and May 1993) were selected to reflect long-range transport conditions under two distinct seasons. During these periods measurements of sulfur concentrations and deposition were made throughout the study region using identical sampling and analysis protocols. The intercomparison activity consists of four tasks (Blind Test, Fixed Parameter Test, Source Receptor test, and Tuning Test). All participants were asked to do Task A, and as many of the other tasks as possible. To date seven different models have participated in this study. Results and key findings are presented.

Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe

Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health and ecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAP Report #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollution mitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071–2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 time windows, respectively.