Maia A. Rabaa

Host and viral features of human dengue cases shape the population of infected and infectious Aedes aegypti mosquitoes

Dengue is the most prevalent arboviral disease of humans. The host and virus variables associated with dengue virus (DENV) transmission from symptomatic dengue cases (n = 208) to Aedes aegypti mosquitoes during 407 independent exposure events was defined. The 50% mosquito infectious dose for each of DENV-1–4 ranged from 6.29 to 7.52 log10 RNA copies/mL of plasma. Increasing day of illness, declining viremia, and rising antibody titers were independently associated with reduced risk of DENV transmission. High early DENV plasma viremia levels in patients were a marker of the duration of human infectiousness, and blood meals containing high concentrations of DENV were positively associated with the prevalence of infectious mosquitoes 14 d after blood feeding. Ambulatory dengue cases had lower viremia levels compared with hospitalized dengue cases but nonetheless at levels predicted to be infectious to mosquitoes. These data define serotype-specific viremia levels that vaccines or drugs must inhibit to prevent DENV transmission.

Prioritization of Influenza Pandemic Vaccination to Minimize Years of Life Lost

BACKGROUND How to allocate limited vaccine supplies in the event of an influenza pandemic is currently under debate. Conventional vaccination strategies focus on those at highest risk for severe outcomes, including seniors, but do not consider (1) the signature pandemic pattern in which mortality risk is shifted to younger ages, (2) likely reduced vaccine response in seniors, and (3) differences in remaining years of life with age. METHODS We integrated these factors to project the age-specific years of life lost (YLL) and saved in a future pandemic, on the basis of mortality patterns from 3 historical pandemics, age-specific vaccine efficacy, and the 2000 US population structure. RESULTS For a 1918-like scenario, the absolute mortality risk is highest in people <45 years old; in contrast, seniors (those >or=65 years old) have the highest mortality risk in the 1957 and 1968 scenarios. The greatest YLL savings would be achieved by targeting different age groups in each scenario; people <45 years old in the 1918 scenario, people 45-64 years old in the 1968 scenario, and people >45 years old in the 1957 scenario. CONCLUSIONS Our findings shift the focus of pandemic vaccination strategies onto younger populations and illustrate the need for real-time surveillance of mortality patterns in a future pandemic. Flexible setting of vaccination priority is essential to minimize mortality.

Phylogeography of Recently Emerged DENV-2 in Southern Viet Nam

Revealing the dispersal of dengue viruses (DENV) in time and space is central to understanding their epidemiology. However, the processes that shape DENV transmission patterns at the scale of local populations are not well understood, particularly the impact of such factors as human population movement and urbanization. Herein, we investigated trends in the spatial dynamics of DENV-2 transmission in the highly endemic setting of southern Viet Nam. Through a phylogeographic analysis of 168 full-length DENV-2 genome sequences obtained from hospitalized dengue cases from 10 provinces in southern Viet Nam, we reveal substantial genetic diversity in both urban and rural areas, with multiple lineages identified in individual provinces within a single season, and indicative of frequent viral migration among communities. Focusing on the recently introduced Asian I genotype, we observed particularly high rates of viral exchange between adjacent geographic areas, and between Ho Chi Minh City, the primary urban center of this region, and populations across southern Viet Nam. Within Ho Chi Minh City, patterns of DENV movement appear consistent with a gravity model of virus dispersal, with viruses traveling across a gradient of population density. Overall, our analysis suggests that Ho Chi Minh City may act as a source population for the dispersal of DENV across southern Viet Nam, and provides further evidence that urban areas of Southeast Asia play a primary role in DENV transmission. However, these data also indicate that more rural areas are also capable of maintaining virus populations and hence fueling DENV evolution over multiple seasons.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam

An improved understanding of heterogeneities in dengue virus transmission might provide insights into biological and ecologic drivers and facilitate predictions of the magnitude, timing, and location of future dengue epidemics. To investigate dengue dynamics in urban Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring rural provinces in Vietnam, we analyzed a 10-year monthly time series of dengue surveillance data from southern Vietnam. The per capita incidence of dengue was lower in Ho Chi Minh City than in most rural provinces; annual epidemics occurred 1–3 months later in Ho Chi Minh City than elsewhere. The timing and the magnitude of annual epidemics were significantly more correlated in nearby districts than in remote districts, suggesting that local biological and ecologic drivers operate at a scale of 50–100 km. Dengue incidence during the dry season accounted for 63% of variability in epidemic magnitude. These findings can aid the targeting of vector-control interventions and the planning for dengue vaccine implementation.

A high-resolution genomic analysis of multidrug-resistant hospital outbreaks of Klebsiella pneumoniae.

Multidrug‐resistant (MDR) Klebsiella pneumoniae has become a leading cause of nosocomial infections worldwide. Despite its prominence, little is known about the genetic diversity of K. pneumoniae in resource‐poor hospital settings. Through whole‐genome sequencing (WGS), we reconstructed an outbreak of MDR K. pneumoniae occurring on high‐dependency wards in a hospital in Kathmandu during 2012 with a case‐fatality rate of 75%. The WGS analysis permitted the identification of two MDR K. pneumoniae lineages causing distinct outbreaks within the complex endemic K. pneumoniae. Using phylogenetic reconstruction and lineage‐specific PCR, our data predicted a scenario in which K. pneumoniae, circulating for 6 months before the outbreak, underwent a series of ward‐specific clonal expansions after the acquisition of genes facilitating virulence and MDR. We suggest that the early detection of a specific NDM‐1 containing lineage in 2011 would have alerted the high‐dependency ward staff to intervene. We argue that some form of real‐time genetic characterisation, alongside clade‐specific PCR during an outbreak, should be factored into future healthcare infection control practices in both high‐ and low‐income settings.

Deep Sequencing of Norovirus Genomes Defines Evolutionary Patterns in an Urban Tropical Setting

ABSTRACT Norovirus is a highly transmissible infectious agent that causes epidemic gastroenteritis in susceptible children and adults. Norovirus infections can be severe and can be initiated from an exceptionally small number of viral particles. Detailed genome sequence data are useful for tracking norovirus transmission and evolution. To address this need, we have developed a whole-genome deep-sequencing method that generates entire genome sequences from small amounts of clinical specimens. This novel approach employs an algorithm for reverse transcription and PCR amplification primer design using all of the publically available norovirus sequence data. Deep sequencing and de novo assembly were used to generate norovirus genomes from a large set of diarrheal patients attending three hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, over a 2.5-year period. Positive-selection analysis and direct examination of protein changes in the virus over time identified codons in the regions encoding proteins VP1, p48 (NS1-2), and p22 (NS4) under positive selection and expands the known targets of norovirus evolutionary pressure. IMPORTANCE The high transmissibility and rapid evolutionary rate of norovirus, combined with a short-lived host immune responses, are thought to be the reasons why the virus causes the majority of pediatric viral diarrhea cases. The evolutionary patterns of this RNA virus have been described in detail for only a portion of the virus genome and never for a virus from a detailed urban tropical setting. We provide a detailed sequence description of the noroviruses circulating in three Ho Chi Minh City hospitals over a 2.5-year period. This study identified patterns of virus change in known sites of host immune response and identified three additional regions of the virus genome under selection that were not previously recognized. In addition, the method described here provides a robust full-genome sequencing platform for community-based virus surveillance.

The evolutionary consequences of blood-stage vaccination on the rodent malaria Plasmodium chabaudi.

A candidate malaria vaccine promoted the evolution of more virulent malaria parasites in mice.

Outbreak of Zika virus infection in Singapore: an epidemiological, entomological, virological, and clinical analysis

BACKGROUND An outbreak of Zika virus infection was detected in Singapore in August, 2016. We report the first comprehensive analysis of a national response to an outbreak of Zika virus infection in Asia. METHODS In the first phase of the outbreak, patients with suspected Zika virus infection were isolated in two national referral hospitals until their serum tested negative for the virus. Enhanced vector control and community engagement measures were deployed in disease clusters, including stepped-up mosquito larvicide and adulticide use, community participation in source reduction (destruction of mosquito breeding sites), and work with the local media to promote awareness of the outbreak. Clinical and epidemiological data were collected from patients with confirmed Zika virus infection during the first phase. In the second phase, admission into hospitals for isolation was stopped but vector control efforts continued. Mosquitoes were captured from areas with Zika disease clusters to assess which species were present, their breeding numbers, and to test for Zika virus. Mosquito virus strains were compared with human strains through phylogenetic analysis after full genome sequencing. Reproductive numbers and inferred dates of strain diversification were estimated through Bayesian analyses. FINDINGS From Aug 27 to Nov 30, 2016, 455 cases of Zika virus infection were confirmed in Singapore. Of 163 patients with confirmed Zika virus infection who presented to national referral hospitals during the first phase of the outbreak, Zika virus was detected in the blood samples of 97 (60%) patients and the urine samples of 157 (96%) patients. There were 15 disease clusters, 12 of which had high Aedes aegypti breeding percentages. Captured mosquitoes were pooled into 517 pools for Zika virus screening; nine abdomen pools (2%) were positive for Zika virus, of which seven head and thorax pools were Zika-virus positive. In the phylogenetic analysis, all mosquito sequences clustered within the outbreak lineage. The lineage showed little diversity and was distinct from other Asian lineages. The estimated most recent common ancestor of the outbreak lineage was from May, 2016. With the deployment of vector control and community engagement measures, the estimated reproductive number fell from 3·62 (95% CI 3·48-3·77) for July 31 to Sept 1, 2016, to 1·22 (95% CI 1·19-1·24) 4 weeks later (Sept 1 to Nov 24, 2016). INTERPRETATION The outbreak shows the ease with which Zika virus can be introduced and spread despite good baseline vector control. Disease surveillance, enhanced vector control, and community awareness and engagement helped to quickly curb further spread of the virus. These intensive measures might be useful for other countries facing the same threat. FUNDING National Medical Research Council Singapore, Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Research, and A*STAR Biomedical Research Council.

A novel ciprofloxacin-resistant subclade of H58 Salmonella Typhi is associated with fluoroquinolone treatment failure

The interplay between bacterial antimicrobial susceptibility, phylogenetics and patient outcome is poorly understood. During a typhoid clinical treatment trial in Nepal, we observed several treatment failures and isolated highly fluoroquinolone-resistant Salmonella Typhi (S. Typhi). Seventy-eight S. Typhi isolates were genome sequenced and clinical observations, treatment failures and fever clearance times (FCTs) were stratified by lineage. Most fluoroquinolone-resistant S. Typhi belonged to a specific H58 subclade. Treatment failure with S. Typhi-H58 was significantly less frequent with ceftriaxone (3/31; 9.7%) than gatifloxacin (15/34; 44.1%)(Hazard Ratio 0.19, p=0.002). Further, for gatifloxacin-treated patients, those infected with fluoroquinolone-resistant organisms had significantly higher median FCTs (8.2 days) than those infected with susceptible (2.96) or intermediately resistant organisms (4.01)(p<0.001). H58 is the dominant S. Typhi clade internationally, but there are no data regarding disease outcome with this organism. We report an emergent new subclade of S. Typhi-H58 that is associated with fluoroquinolone treatment failure. Clinical trial registration: ISRCTN63006567. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.14003.001

A Prospective Multi-Center Observational Study of Children Hospitalized with Diarrhea in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

We performed a prospective multicenter study to address the lack of data on the etiology, clinical and demographic features of hospitalized pediatric diarrhea in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam. Over 2,000 (1,419 symptomatic and 609 non-diarrheal control) children were enrolled in three hospitals over a 1-year period in 2009–2010. Aiming to detect a panel of pathogens, we identified a known diarrheal pathogen in stool samples from 1,067/1,419 (75.2%) children with diarrhea and from 81/609 (13.3%) children without diarrhea. Rotavirus predominated in the symptomatic children (664/1,419; 46.8%), followed by norovirus (293/1,419; 20.6%). The bacterial pathogens Salmonella, Campylobacter, and Shigella were cumulatively isolated from 204/1,419 (14.4%) diarrheal children and exhibited extensive antimicrobial resistance, most notably to fluoroquinolones and third-generation cephalosporins. We suggest renewed efforts in generation and implementation of policies to control the sale and prescription of antimicrobials to curb bacterial resistance and advise consideration of a subsidized rotavirus vaccination policy to limit the morbidity due to diarrheal disease in Vietnam.