Maik Thomas

Potential of space-borne GNSS reflectometry to constrain simulations of the ocean circulation

The Agulhas current system transports warm and salty water masses from the Indian Ocean into the Southern Ocean and into the Atlantic. The transports impact past, present, and future climate on local and global scales. The size and variability, however, of the respective transports are still much debated. In this study, an idealized model based twin experiment is used to study whether sea surface height (SSH) anomalies estimated from reflected signals of the Global Navigation Satellite System reflectometry (GNSS-R) can be used to determine the internal water mass properties and transports of the Agulhas region. A space-borne GNSS-R detector on the International Space Station (ISS) is assumed and simulated. The detector is able to observe daily SSH fields with a spatial resolution of 1–5∘. Depending on reflection geometry, the precision of a single SSH observation is estimated to reach 3 cm (20 cm) when the carrier phase (code delay) information of the reflected GNSS signal is used. The average precision over the Agulhas region is 7 cm (42 cm). The proposed GNSS-R measurements surpass the radar-based satellite altimetry missions in temporal and spatial resolution but are less precise. Using the estimated GNSS-R characteristics, measurements of SSH are generated by sampling a regional nested general circulation model of the South African oceans. The artificial observations are subsequently assimilated with a 4DVAR adjoint data assimilation method into the same ocean model but with a different initial state and forcing. The assimilated and the original, i.e., the sampled model state, are compared to systematically identify improvements and degradations in the model variables that arise due to the assimilation of GNSS-R based SSH observations. We show that SSH and the independent, i.e., not assimilated model variables velocity, temperature, and salinity improve by the assimilation of GNSS-R based SSH observations. After the assimilation of 90 days of SSH observations, improvements in the independent variables cover the whole water column. Locally, up to 39 % of the original model state are recovered. Shorter assimilation windows result in enhanced reproduction of the observed and assimilated SSH but are accompanied by an insufficient or wrong recovery of sub-surface water properties. The assimilation of real GNSS-R observations, when available, and consequently the estimation of Agulhas water mass properties and the leakage of heat and salt into the Atlantic will benefit from this model-based study.

Impact of climate variability on the tidal oceanic magnetic signal—A model-based sensitivity study

ESAs satellite magnetometer mission Swarm is supposed to lower the limit of observability for oceanic processes. While periodic magnetic signals from ocean tides are already detectable in satellite magnetometer observations, changes in the general ocean circulation are yet too small or irregular for a successful separation. An approach is presented that utilizes the good detectability of tidal magnetic signals to detect changes in the oceanic electric conductivity distribution. Ocean circulation, tides, and the resultant magnetic fields are calculated with a global general ocean circulation model coupled to a 3-D electromagnetic induction model. For the decay of the meridional overturning circulation, as an example, the impact of climate variability on tidal oceanic magnetic signals is demonstrated. Total overturning decay results in anomalies of up to 0.7 nT in the radial magnetic M2 signal at sea level. The anomalies are spatially heterogeneous and reach in extended areas 30% or more of the unperturbed tidal magnetic signal. The anomalies should be detectable in long time series from magnetometers on land or at the ocean bottom. The anomalies at satellite height (430 km) reach 0.1 nT and pose a challenge for the precision of the Swarm mission. Climate variability induced deviations in the tide system (e.g., tidal velocities and phases) are negligible. Changes in tidal magnetic fields are dominated by changes in seawater salinity and temperature. Therefore, it is concluded that observations of tidal magnetic signals could be used as a tool to detect respective state changes in the ocean.

Utilizing oceanic electromagnetic induction to constrain an ocean general circulation model: A data assimilation twin experiment

Satellite observations of the magnetic field induced by the general ocean circulation could provide new constraints on global oceanic water and heat transports. This opportunity is investigated in a model-based twin experiment by assimilating synthetic satellite observations of the ocean-induced magnetic field into a global ocean model. The general circulation of the world ocean is simulated over the period of one month. Idealized daily observations are generated from this simulation by calculating the ocean-induced magnetic field at 450 km altitude and disturbing these global fields with error estimates. Utilizing an ensemble Kalman filter, the observations are assimilated into the same ocean model with a different initial state and different atmospheric forcing. Compared to a reference simulation without data assimilation, the corrected ocean-induced magnetic field is improved throughout the whole simulation period and over large regions. The global RMS differences of the ocean-induced magnetic field are reduced by up to 17%. Local improvements show values up to 54%. RMS differences of the depth-integrated zonal and meridional ocean velocities are improved by up to 7% globally, and up to 50% locally. False corrections of the ocean model state are identified in the South Pacific Ocean and are linked to a deficient estimation of the ocean model error covariance matrices. Most Kalman filter induced changes in the ocean velocities extend from the sea-surface down to the deep ocean. Allowing the Kalman filter to correct the wind stress forcing of the ocean model is essential for a successful assimilation.

Low-frequency ocean bottom pressure variations in the North Pacific in response to time-variable surface winds

One decade of time-variable gravity field observations from the GRACE satellite mission reveals low-frequency ocean bottom pressure (OBP) variability of up to 2.5 hPa centered at the northern flank of the subtropical gyre in the North Pacific. From a 145 year-long simulation with a coupled chemistry climate model, OBP variability is found to be related to the prevailing atmospheric sea-level pressure and surface wind conditions in the larger North Pacific area. The dominating atmospheric pressure patterns obtained from the climate model run allow in combination with ERA-Interim sea-level pressure and surface winds a reconstruction of the OBP variability in the North Pacific from atmospheric model data only, which correlates favorably (r=0.7) with GRACE ocean bottom pressure observations. The regression results indicate that GRACE-based OBP observations are indeed sensitive to changes in the prevailing sea-level pressure and thus surface wind conditions in the North Pacific, thereby opening opportunities to constrain atmospheric models from satellite gravity observations over the oceans.

On the Use of Satellite Altimetry to Detect Ocean Circulation's Magnetic Signals

Oceanic magnetic signals are sensitive to ocean velocity, salinity, and heat content. The detection of respective signals with global satellite magnetometers would pose a very valuable source of information. While tidal magnetic fields are already detected, electromagnetic signals of the ocean circulation still remain unobserved from space. We propose to use satellite altimetry to construct proxy magnetic signals of the ocean circulation. These proxy time series could subsequently be fitted to satellite magnetometer data. The fitted data could be removed from the observations or the fitting constants could be analyzed for physical properties of the ocean, e.g., the heat budget. To test and evaluate this approach, synthetic true and proxy magnetic signals are derived from a global circulation model of the ocean. Both data sets are compared in dependence of location and time scale. We study and report when and where the proxy data describe the true signal sufficiently well. Correlations above 0.6 and explained variances of above 80% can be reported for large parts of the Antarctic ocean, thus explaining the major part of the global, sub-seasonal magnetic signal.

Estimating ocean tide model uncertainties for electromagnetic inversion studies

Over a decade ago the semidiurnal lunar M2 ocean tide was identified in CHAMP satellite magnetometer data. Since then and especially since the launch of the satellite mission Swarm, electromagnetic tidal observations from satellites are increasingly used to infer electric properties of the upper mantle. In most of these inversions, ocean tidal models are used to generate oceanic tidal electromagnetic signals via electromagnetic induction. The modeled signals are subsequently compared to the satellite observations. During the inversion, since the tidal models are considered error free, discrepancies between forward models and observations are projected only onto the induction part of the modeling, e.g., Earth’s conductivity distribution. Our study analyzes uncertainties in oceanic tidal models from an electromagnetic point of view. Velocities from hydrodynamic and assimilative tidal models are converted into tidal electromagnetic signals and compared. Respective uncertainties are estimated. The studies main goal is to provide errors for electromagnetic inversion studies. At satellite height, the differences between the hydrodynamic tidal models are found to reach up to 2 nT, i.e., over 100 % of the local M2 signal. Assimilative tidal models show smaller differences of up to 0.1 nT, which in some locations still corresponds to over 30 % of the M2 signal.

The use of the A10-022 absolute gravimeter to construct the relative gravimeter calibration baselines in China

The A10-022 absolute gravimeter is utilised to measure the gravitational acceleration (g) for the first time at the 24 sites of the six relative gravimeter calibration baselines (the required absolute standard uncertainty for 10 µGal, 1 µGal = 1 × 10−8 m s−2) in China. The A10-022 was firstly used in long-term indoor observations and compared with a FG5 absolute gravimeter. The analysis of the data indicates that the standard deviation of the measurements was 4.7 µGal, the maximum peak-to-peak gravitational acceleration was 16.9 µGal at the laboratory and the offset compared to the FG5-232 absolute gravimeter was less than 4 µGal. The expanded uncertainties of A10-022 are approximately 22.0 µGal combining the uncertainty of the KCRV (Key Comparison Reference Value), the stability of the reference absolute gravimeter (FG5-232 in this case) and the bias measured during the comparison. Since 2011, the experiment has been implemented at the Lushan (LS) relative gravimeter calibration baseline to detect the feasibility and technical requirements of the A10 in field absolute gravity measurements. The gravitational acceleration was measured using the A10-022 at five new calibration baselines in 2012. Finally, all of the data from the A10-022 were adjusted to the height (25 cm) of the CG-5 relative gravimeter to compare with the results of gravity differences from the CG-5 at the six baselines. The results indicate that the average bias and the standard deviation of the differences between the A10 and the relative gravity differences measured by CG-5 were 5.1 µGal and 2.8 µGal, respectively. The expanded uncertainty of the A10-022 measurements covers the average biases between the A10-022 and CG-5 for each calibration baseline.

Time Variations in Ocean Bottom Pressure from a Few Hours to Many Years: In Situ Data, Numerical Models, and GRACE Satellite Gravimetry

In situ ocean bottom pressure (OBP) obtained from 154 different locations irregularly scattered over the globe is carefully processed to isolate signals related to the ocean general circulation and large‐scale sea level changes. Comparison against a global numerical ocean model experiment indicates poor correspondence for periods below 24 hr, possibly related to residual tidal signals and small timing errors in the atmospheric forcing applied to the ocean model. Correspondence increases rapidly for periods between 3 and 10 days, where wind‐driven dynamics are already well understood and consequently well implemented into numerical models. Coherence decreases again for periods around 30 days and longer, where processes not implemented into ocean general circulation models as barystatic sea level changes become more important. Correspondence between in situ data and satellite‐based OBP as obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) German Research Centre for Geosciences RL05a gravity fields critically depends on the postprocessing of Level‐2 Stokes coefficients that also includes the selection of appropriate averaging regions for the GRACE‐based mass anomalies. The assessment of other available GRACE Level‐2 products indicates even better fit of more recent solutions as ITSG‐Grace2016 and the Center for Space Research and Jet Propulsion Laboratory RL05 mascons. In view of the strong high‐frequency component of OBP, however, a higher temporal resolution of the oceanic GRACE products would be rather advantageous.

Improved 90-day Earth orientation predictions from angular momentum forecasts of atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial hydrosphere

Short-term forecasts of atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological effective angular momentum functions (EAM) of Earth rotation excitation are combined with least-squares extrapolation and autoregressive modeling to routinely predict polar motion (PM) and