Maksym Obrizan

The Aftermath of Hip Fracture: Discharge Placement, Functional Status Change, and Mortality

The authors prospectively explored the consequences of hip fracture with regard to discharge placement, functional status, and mortality using the Survey on Assets and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD). Data from baseline (1993) AHEAD interviews and biennial follow-up interviews were linked to Medicare claims data from 1993-2005. There were 495 postbaseline hip fractures among 5,511 respondents aged >or=69 years. Mean age at hip fracture was 85 years; 73% of fracture patients were white women, 45% had pertrochanteric fractures, and 55% underwent surgical pinning. Most patients (58%) were discharged to a nursing facility, with 14% being discharged to their homes. In-hospital, 6-month, and 1-year mortality were 2.7%, 19%, and 26%, respectively. Declines in functional-status-scale scores ranged from 29% on the fine motor skills scale to 56% on the mobility index. Mean scale score declines were 1.9 for activities of daily living, 1.7 for instrumental activities of daily living, and 2.2 for depressive symptoms; scores on mobility, large muscle, gross motor, and cognitive status scales worsened by 2.3, 1.6, 2.2, and 2.5 points, respectively. Hip fracture characteristics, socioeconomic status, and year of fracture were significantly associated with discharge placement. Sex, age, dementia, and frailty were significantly associated with mortality. This is one of the few studies to prospectively capture these declines in functional status after hip fracture.

Long-term declines in ADLs, IADLs, and mobility among older Medicare beneficiaries

BackgroundMost prior studies have focused on short-term (≤ 2 years) functional declines. But those studies cannot address aging effects inasmuch as all participants have aged the same amount. Therefore, the authors studied the extent of long-term functional decline in older Medicare beneficiaries who were followed for varying time lengths, and the authors also identified the risk factors associated with those declines.MethodsThe analytic sample included 5,871 self- or proxy-respondents who had complete baseline and follow-up survey data that could be linked to their Medicare claims for 1993-2007. Functional status was assessed using activities of daily living (ADLs), instrumental ADLs (IADLs), and mobility limitations, with declines defined as the development of two of more new difficulties. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to focus on the associations involving respondent status, health lifestyle, continuity of care, managed care status, health shocks, and terminal drop.ResultsThe average amount of time between the first and final interviews was 8.0 years. Declines were observed for 36.6% on ADL abilities, 32.3% on IADL abilities, and 30.9% on mobility abilities. Functional decline was more likely to occur when proxy-reports were used, and the effects of baseline function on decline were reduced when proxy-reports were used. Engaging in vigorous physical activity consistently and substantially protected against functional decline, whereas obesity, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption were only associated with mobility declines. Post-baseline hospitalizations were the most robust predictors of functional decline, exhibiting a dose-response effect such that the greater the average annual number of hospital episodes, the greater the likelihood of functional status decline. Participants whose final interview preceded their death by one year or less had substantially greater odds of functional status decline.ConclusionsBoth the additive and interactive (with functional status) effects of respondent status should be taken into consideration whenever proxy-reports are used. Encouraging exercise could broadly reduce the risk of functional decline across all three outcomes, although interventions encouraging weight reduction and smoking cessation would only affect mobility declines. Reducing hospitalization and re-hospitalization rates could also broadly reduce the risk of functional decline across all three outcomes.

Recent Hospitalization and the Risk of Hip Fracture Among Older Americans

BACKGROUND We identified hip fracture risks in a prospective national study. METHODS Baseline (1993-1994) interview data were linked to Medicare claims for 1993-2005. Participants were 5,511 self-respondents aged 70 years and older and not in managed Medicare. ICD9-CM 820.xx (International Classification of Diseases, 9th Edition, Clinical Modification) codes identified hip fracture. Participants were censored at death or enrollment into managed Medicare. Static risk factors included sociodemographic, socioeconomic, place of residence, health behavior, disease history, and functional and cognitive status measures. A time-dependent marker reflecting postbaseline hospitalizations was included. RESULTS A total of 495 (8.9%) participants suffered a postbaseline hip fracture. In the static proportional hazards model, the greatest risks involved age (adjusted hazard ratios [AHRs] of 2.01, 2.82, and 4.91 for 75-79, 80-84, and > or =85 year age groups vs those aged 70-74 years; p values <.001), sex (AHR = 0.45 for men vs women; p < .001), race (AHRs of 0.37 and 0.46 for African Americans and Hispanics vs whites; p values <.001 and <.01), body mass (AHRs of 0.40, 0.77, and 1.73 for obese, overweight, and underweight vs normal weight; p values <.001, <.05, and <.01), smoking status (AHRs = 1.49 and 1.52 for current and former smokers vs nonsmokers; p values <.05 and <.001), and diabetes (AHR = 1.99; p < .001). The time-dependent recent hospitalization marker did not alter the static model effect estimates, but it did substantially increase the risk of hip fracture (AHR = 2.51; p < .001). CONCLUSIONS Enhanced discharge planning and home care for non-hip fracture hospitalizations could reduce subsequent hip fracture rates.

Defining emergency department episodes by severity and intensity: A 15-year study of Medicare beneficiaries

BackgroundEpisodes of Emergency Department (ED) service use among older adults previously have not been constructed, or evaluated as multi-dimensional phenomena. In this study, we constructed episodes of ED service use among a cohort of older adults over a 15-year observation period, measured the episodes by severity and intensity, and compared these measures in predicting subsequent hospitalization.MethodsWe conducted a secondary analysis of the prospective cohort study entitled the Survey on Assets and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old (AHEAD). Baseline (1993) data on 5,511 self-respondents ≥70 years old were linked to their Medicare claims for 1991-2005. Claims then were organized into episodes of ED care according to Medicare guidelines. The severity of ED episodes was measured with a modified-NYU algorithm using ICD9-CM diagnoses, and the intensity of the episodes was measured using CPT codes. Measures were evaluated against subsequent hospitalization to estimate comparative predictive validity.ResultsOver 15 years, three-fourths (4,171) of the 5,511 AHEAD participants had at least 1 ED episode, with a mean of 4.5 episodes. Cross-classification indicated the modified-NYU severity measure and the CPT-based intensity measure captured different aspects of ED episodes (kappa = 0.18). While both measures were significant independent predictors of hospital admission from ED episodes, the CPT measure had substantially higher predictive validity than the modified-NYU measure (AORs 5.70 vs. 3.31; p < .001).ConclusionsWe demonstrated an innovative approach for how claims data can be used to construct episodes of ED care among a sample of older adults. We also determined that the modified-NYU measure of severity and the CPT measure of intensity tap different aspects of ED episodes, and that both measures were predictive of subsequent hospitalization.

A 12-year prospective study of stroke risk in older Medicare beneficiaries

Background5.8 M living Americans have experienced a stroke at some time in their lives, 780K had either their first or a recurrent stroke this year, and 150K died from strokes this year. Stroke costs about

Older adults who persistently present to the emergency department with severe, non-severe, and indeterminate episode patterns.

66B annually in the US, and also results in serious, long-term disability. Therefore, it is prudent to identify all possible risk factors and their effects so that appropriate intervention points may be targeted.MethodsBaseline (1993–1994) interview data from the nationally representative Survey on Assets and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) were linked to 1993–2005 Medicare claims. Participants were 5,511 self-respondents ≥ 70 years old. Two ICD9-CM case-identification approaches were used. Two approaches to stroke case-identification based on ICD9-CM codes were used, one emphasized sensitivity and the other emphasized specificity. Participants were censored at death or enrollment into managed Medicare. Baseline risk factors included sociodemographic, socioeconomic, place of residence, health behavior, disease history, and functional and cognitive status measures. A time-dependent marker reflecting post-baseline non-stroke hospitalizations was included to reflect health shocks, and sensitivity analyses were conducted to identify its peak effect. Competing risk, proportional hazards regression was used.ResultsPost-baseline strokes occurred for 545 (9.9%; high sensitivity approach) and 374 (6.8%; high specificity approach) participants. The greatest static risks involved increased age, being widowed or never married, living in multi-story buildings, reporting a baseline history of diabetes, hypertension, or stroke, and reporting difficulty picking up a dime, refusing to answer the delayed word recall test, or having poor cognition. Risks were similar for both case-identification approaches and for recurrent and first-ever vs. only first-ever strokes. The time-dependent health shock (recent hospitalization) marker did not alter the static model effect estimates, but increased stroke risk by 200% or more.ConclusionThe effect of our health shock marker (a time-dependent recent hospitalization indicator) was large and did not mediate the effects of the traditional risk factors. This suggests an especially vulnerable post-hospital transition period from adverse effects associated with both their underlying health shock (the reasons for the recent hospital admission) and the consequences of their treatments.

Prior Hospitalization and the Risk of Heart Attack in Older Adults: A 12-Year Prospective Study of Medicare Beneficiaries

BackgroundIt is well known that older adults figure prominently in the use of emergency departments (ED) across the United States. Previous research has differentiated ED visits by levels of clinical severity and found health status and other individual characteristics distinguished severe from non-severe visits. In this research, we classified older adults into population groups that persistently present with severe, non-severe, or indeterminate patterns of ED episodes. We then contrasted the three groups using a comprehensive set of covariates.MethodsUsing a unique dataset linking individual characteristics with Medicare claims for calendar years 1991-2007, we identified patterns of ED use among the large, nationally representative AHEAD sample consisting of 5,510 older adults. We then classified one group of older adults who persistently presented to the ED with clinically severe episodes and another group who persistently presented to the ED with non-severe episodes. These two groups were contrasted using logistic regression, and then contrasted against a third group with a persistent pattern of ED episodes with indeterminate levels of severity using multinomial logistic regression. Variable selection was based on Andersens behavioral model of health services use and featured clinical status, demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, health behaviors, health service use patterns, local health care supply, and other contextual effects.ResultsWe identified 948 individuals (17.2% of the entire sample) who presented a pattern in which their ED episodes were typically defined as severe and 1,076 individuals (19.5%) who typically presented with non-severe episodes. Individuals who persistently presented to the ED with severe episodes were more likely to be older (AOR 1.52), men (AOR 1.28), current smokers (AOR 1.60), experience diabetes (AOR (AOR 1.80), heart disease (AOR 1.70), hypertension (AOR 1.32) and have a greater amount of morbidity (AOR 1.48) than those who persistently presented to the ED with non-severe episodes. When contrasted with 1,177 individuals with a persistent pattern of indeterminate severity ED use, persons with severe patterns were older (AOR 1.36), more likely to be obese (AOR 1.36), and experience heart disease (AOR 1.49) and hypertension (AOR 1.36) while persons with non-severe patterns were less likely to smoke (AOR 0.63) and have diabetes (AOR 0.67) or lung disease (AOR 0.58).ConclusionsWe distinguished three large, readily identifiable groups of older adults which figure prominently in the use of EDs across the United States. Our results suggest that one group affects the general capacity of the ED to provide care as they persistently present with severe episodes requiring urgent staff attention and greater resource allocation. Another group persistently presents with non-severe episodes and creates a considerable share of the excess demand for ED care. Future research should determine how chronic disease management programs and varied co-payment obligations might impact the use of the ED by these two large and distinct groups of older adults with consistent ED use patterns.

EXPLORING CROSS-COUNTRY VARIATION IN GOVERNMENT SHARES: WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM RELATIVE PRODUCTIVITIES?

BACKGROUND We investigated whether prior hospitalization was a risk factor for heart attacks among older adults in the survey on Assets and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. METHODS Baseline (1993-1994) interview data were linked to 1993-2005 Medicare claims for 5,511 self-respondents aged 70 years and older and not enrolled in managed Medicare. Primary hospital International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) 410.xx discharge codes identified postbaseline hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarctions (AMIs). Participants were censored at death or postbaseline managed Medicare enrollment. Traditional risk factors and other covariates were included. Recent postbaseline non-AMI hospitalizations (ie, prior hospitalizations) were indicated by a time-dependent marker, and sensitivity analyses identified their peak effect. RESULTS The total number of person-years of surveillance was 44,740 with a mean of 8.1 (median = 9.1) per person. Overall, 483 participants (8.8%) suffered postbaseline heart attacks, with 423 participants (7.7%) having their first-ever AMI. As expected, significant traditional risk factors were sex (men); race (whites); marital status (never being married); education (noncollege); geography (living in the South); and reporting a baseline history of angina, arthritis, diabetes, and heart disease. Risk factors were similar for both any postbaseline and first-ever postbaseline AMI analyses. The time-dependent recent non-AMI hospitalization marker did not alter the effects of the traditional risk factors but increased AMI risk by 366% (adjusted hazards ratio = 4.66, p < .0001). Discussion. Our results suggest that some small percentage (<3%) of heart attacks among older adults might be prevented if effective short-term postdischarge planning and monitoring interventions were developed and implemented.

Tobacco Spending in Georgia: Machine Learning Approach

Government shares in total output are characterized by significant variation across countries. As a starting point of my study, I notice strong negative correlation between government consumption share and price of government services in terms of private consumption. Motivated by this empirical observation, I develop a neoclassical growth model with added government that is capable of matching the variation in government shares very closely using only relative prices. In addition, I provide empirical evidence showing that the relative price of government consumption increases in income which is consistent with distortions prevailing in poor countries. These two observations combined imply that government shares tend to be higher in poorer countries.

Quantifying the Gap in Self-Rated Health for Transition Countries Over 1989–2014

The purpose of this study is to analyze tobacco spending in Georgia using various machine learning methods applied to a sample of 10,757 households from Integrated Household Survey collected by GeoStat in 2016. Previous research has shown that smoking is the leading cause of death for 35-69 year olds. In addition, tobacco expenditures may constitute as much as 17% of the household budget. Five different algorithms (ordinary least squares, random forest, two gradient boosting methods and deep learning) were applied to 8,173 households (or 76.0%) in the train set. Out-of-sample predictions were then obtained for 2,584 remaining households in the test set. Under the default settings random forest algorithm showed the best performance with more than 10% improvement in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE). Improved accuracy and availability of machine learning tools in R calls for active use of these methods by policy makers and scientists in health economics, public health and related fields.