Malika Bouhenia

Cholera epidemic in Yemen, 2016–18: an analysis of surveillance data

Summary Background In war-torn Yemen, reports of confirmed cholera started in late September, 2016. The disease continues to plague Yemen today in what has become the largest documented cholera epidemic of modern times. We aimed to describe the key epidemiological features of this epidemic, including the drivers of cholera transmission during the outbreak. Methods The Yemen Health Authorities set up a national cholera surveillance system to collect information on suspected cholera cases presenting at health facilities. Individual variables included symptom onset date, age, severity of dehydration, and rapid diagnostic test result. Suspected cholera cases were confirmed by culture, and a subset of samples had additional phenotypic and genotypic analysis. We first conducted descriptive analyses at national and governorate levels. We divided the epidemic into three time periods: the first wave (Sept 28, 2016, to April 23, 2017), the increasing phase of the second wave (April 24, 2017, to July 2, 2017), and the decreasing phase of the second wave (July 3, 2017, to March 12, 2018). We reconstructed the changes in cholera transmission over time by estimating the instantaneous reproduction number, Rt. Finally, we estimated the association between rainfall and the daily cholera incidence during the increasing phase of the second epidemic wave by fitting a spatiotemporal regression model. Findings From Sept 28, 2016, to March 12, 2018, 1 103 683 suspected cholera cases (attack rate 3·69%) and 2385 deaths (case fatality risk 0·22%) were reported countrywide. The epidemic consisted of two distinct waves with a surge in transmission in May, 2017, corresponding to a median Rt of more than 2 in 13 of 23 governorates. Microbiological analyses suggested that the same Vibrio cholerae O1 Ogawa strain circulated in both waves. We found a positive, non-linear, association between weekly rainfall and suspected cholera incidence in the following 10 days; the relative risk of cholera after a weekly rainfall of 25 mm was 1·42 (95% CI 1·31–1·55) compared with a week without rain. Interpretation Our analysis suggests that the small first cholera epidemic wave seeded cholera across Yemen during the dry season. When the rains returned in April, 2017, they triggered widespread cholera transmission that led to the large second wave. These results suggest that cholera could resurge during the ongoing 2018 rainy season if transmission remains active. Therefore, health authorities and partners should immediately enhance current control efforts to mitigate the risk of a new cholera epidemic wave in Yemen. Funding Health Authorities of Yemen, WHO, and Médecins Sans Frontières.

Immune Responses to an Oral Cholera Vaccine in Internally Displaced Persons in South Sudan

Despite recent large-scale cholera outbreaks, little is known about the immunogenicity of oral cholera vaccines (OCV) in African populations, particularly among those at highest cholera risk. During a 2015 preemptive OCV campaign among internally displaced persons in South Sudan, a year after a large cholera outbreak, we enrolled 37 young children (1–5 years old), 67 older children (6–17 years old) and 101 adults (≥18 years old), who received two doses of OCV (Shanchol) spaced approximately 3 weeks apart. Cholera-specific antibody responses were determined at days 0, 21 and 35 post-immunization. High baseline vibriocidal titers (>80) were observed in 21% of the participants, suggesting recent cholera exposure or vaccination. Among those with titers ≤80, 90% young children, 73% older children and 72% adults seroconverted (≥4 fold titer rise) after the 1st OCV dose; with no additional seroconversion after the 2nd dose. Post-vaccination immunological endpoints did not differ across age groups. Our results indicate Shanchol was immunogenic in this vulnerable population and that a single dose alone may be sufficient to achieve similar short-term immunological responses to the currently licensed two-dose regimen. While we found no evidence of differential response by age, further immunologic and epidemiologic studies are needed.

Cholera epidemic in South Sudan and Uganda and need for international collaboration in cholera control

Combining the official cholera line list data and outbreak investigation reports from the ministries of health in Uganda and South Sudan with molecular analysis of Vibrio cholerae strains revealed the interrelatedness of the epidemics in both countries in 2014. These results highlight the need for collaboration to control cross-border outbreaks.

Quantitative survey on health and violence endured by refugees during their journey and in Calais, France

Abstract Background In 2015, more than 1 million refugees arrived in Europe. During their travels, refugees often face harsh conditions, violence and torture in transit countries, but there is a lack of quantitative evidence on their experiences. We present the results of a retrospective survey among refugees in the ‘Jungle’ of Calais, France, to document their health problems and the violence they endured during their journeys. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional population-based survey in November and December 2015. The sample size was set at 402 individuals, and geospatial simple random sampling was used. We collected data on demographics, routes travelled, health status, violence and future plans. Results Departures from the country of origin increased beginning in September 2015. Sixty-one percent of respondents reported having at least one health problem, especially while in Calais. Overall, 65.6% (95% CI 60.3–70.6) experienced at least one violent event en route; 81.5% of refugees wanted to go to the UK. Conclusions This first quantitative survey conducted among refugees in Europe provides important socio-demographic data on refugees living in Calais and describes the high rate of violence they encountered during their journeys. Similar documentation should be repeated throughout Europe in order to better respond to the needs of this vulnerable population.

Highly targeted cholera vaccination campaigns in urban setting are feasible: The experience in Kalemie, Democratic Republic of Congo

Introduction Oral cholera vaccines are primarily recommended by the World Health Organization for cholera control in endemic countries. However, the number of cholera vaccines currently produced is very limited and examples of OCV use in endemic countries, and especially in urban settings, are scarce. A vaccination campaign was organized by Médecins Sans Frontières and the Ministry of Health in a highly endemic area in the Democratic Republic of Congo. This study aims to describe the vaccine coverage achieved with this highly targeted vaccination campaign and the acceptability among the vaccinated communities. Methods and findings We performed a cross-sectional survey using random spatial sampling. The study population included individuals one year old and above, eligible for vaccination, and residing in the areas targeted for vaccination in the city of Kalemie. Data sources were household interviews with verification by vaccination card. In total 2,488 people were included in the survey. Overall, 81.9% (95%CI: 77.9–85.3) of the target population received at least one dose of vaccine. The vaccine coverage with two doses was 67.2% (95%CI: 61.9–72.0) among the target population. The vaccine coverage was higher during the first round (74.0, 95%CI: 69.3–78.3) than during the second round of vaccination (69.1%, 95%CI: 63.9–74.0). Vaccination coverage was lower in male adults. The main reason for non-vaccination was to be absent during the campaign. No severe adverse events were notified during the interviews. Conclusions Cholera vaccination campaigns using highly targeted strategies are feasible in urban settings. High vaccination coverage can be obtained using door to door vaccination. However, alternative strategies should be considered to reach non-vaccinated populations like male adults and also in order to improve the efficiency of the interventions.

Dried Blood Spots for Measuring Vibrio cholerae-specific Immune Responses

Background Vibrio cholerae causes over 2 million cases of cholera and 90,000 deaths each year. Serosurveillance can be a useful tool for estimating the intensity of cholera transmission and prioritizing populations for cholera control interventions. Current methods involving venous blood draws and downstream specimen storage and transport methods pose logistical challenges in most settings where cholera strikes. To overcome these challenges, we developed methods for determining cholera-specific immune responses from dried blood spots (DBS). Methodology/principal findings As conventional vibriocidal assay methods were unsuitable for DBS eluates from filter paper, we adopted a drop-plate culture method. We show that DBS collected from volunteers in South Sudan, and stored for prolonged periods in field conditions, retained functional vibriocidal antibodies, the titers of which correlated with paired serum titers determined by conventional spectrophotometric methods (r = 0.94, p = 0.00012). We also showed that eluates from DBS Serum Separator cards could be used with conventional spectrophotometric vibriocidal methods, and that they correlated with paired serum at a wide range of titers (r = 0.96, p<0.0001). Similarly, we used ELISA methods to show that V. cholerae O-specific polysaccharide antibody responses from DBS eluates correlated with results from paired serum for IgG (r = 0.85, p = 0.00006), IgM (r = 0.79, p = 0.00049) and IgA (r = 0.73, p = 0.0019), highlighting its potential for use in determination of isotype-specific responses. Storage of DBS cards at a range of temperatures did not change antibody responses. Conclusion In conclusion, we have developed and demonstrated a proof-of-concept for assays utilizing DBS for assessing cholera-specific immune responses.

High prevalence of shigella or enteroinvasive Escherichia coli carriage among residents of an internally displaced persons camp in South Sudan

Displaced persons living in camps are at an increased risk of diarrheal diseases. Subclinical carriage of pathogens may contribute to the spread of disease, especially for microbes that require a low infectious dose. Multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction was performed to detect a panel of 20 bacterial, viral, and protozoal targets, and we report a high prevalence of enteropathogen carriage, including Shigella spp. or enteroinvasive Escherichia coli in 14%, among a sample of 88 asymptomatic individuals in an internally displaced persons camp in South Sudan. Further studies are needed to determine the contribution of such carriage to the spread of disease.