Mamaru A. Moges

Biohydrology of low flows in the humid Ethiopian highlands: The Gilgel Abay catchment

In Ethiopia the population is rapidly expanding. As a consequence the landscape is rapidly changing. Eucalyptus plantations are increasing and irrigation projects are implemented. The hydrological effects of the changing landscape on river (low) flows have not been well documented and therefore the amount of water available in the future might be over optimistic. The objective of this paper is to establish how low flows have been impacted by new developments in irrigation and by landscape change. For this paper, we choose the Gilgel Abay in the headwaters of the upper Blue Nile basin, since it has both good quality discharge data and it is located in the Tana Beles growth corridor. Numerical and statistical means were used to analyze the 25 years of available low flow data. We found a statistically significant decreasing trend (P < 0.00001) of low flow in the Gilgel Abay. From 1980’s to 1990’s the low flow decreased by 25% and from 1990’s to 2000’s the low flow was reduced by 46%. The deterministic analysis with the Parameter Efficient Distributed (PED) model supported the statistical findings and indicated that in the middle of the nineteen nineties, after irrigation projects and eucalyptus plantations increased greatly, the low flows decreased more rapidly.

Soil Erosion and Discharge in the Blue Nile Basin: Trends and Challenges

Future river discharge predictions seldom take into account the degrading landscape. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship of river discharge and sediment concentrations, and the effect of changing landscape and climate on discharge and sediment transport in the Ethiopian Blue Nile basin. This study used past precipitation records and the Parameter Efficient Distributed (PED) model to examine how the relationship between precipitation, discharge, and sediment concentration changed with time. All input data to the PED model were kept constant except for a conversion of permeable hillside to degraded soil in time. The results of this study show that with a gradual increase of the degraded areas from 10 % in the 1960s to 22 % in 2000s, the observed discharge pattern and sediment concentration can be simulated well. Simulated annual runoff increased by 10 % over the 40-year periods as a result of the increase in degraded soils. Sediment loads appeared to have increased many times more, but this needs to be further validated as data availability is limited. In general, the results indicate that rehabilitating the degraded and bare areas by planting permanent vegetation can be effective in decreasing the sediment concentration in the rivers. Research should be undertaken to evaluate the effectiveness of vegetation planting.

Budgeting suspended sediment fluxes in tropical monsoonal watersheds with limited data: the Lake Tana basin

Abstract Soil erosion decreases soil fertility of the uplands and causes siltation of lakes and reservoirs; the lakes and reservoirs in tropical monsoonal African highlands are especially affected by sedimentation. Efforts in reducing loads by designing management practices are hampered by lack of quantitative data on the relationship of erosion in the watersheds and sediment accumulation on flood plains, lakes and reservoirs. The objective of this study is to develop a prototype quantitative method for estimating sediment budget for tropical monsoon lakes with limited observational data. Four watersheds in the Lake Tana basin were selected for this study. The Parameter Efficient Distributed (PED) model that has shown to perform well in the Ethiopian highlands is used to overcome the data limitations and recreate the missing sediment fluxes. PED model parameters are calibrated using daily discharge data and the occasionally collected sediment concentration when establishing the sediment rating curves for the major rivers. The calibrated model parameters are then used to predict the sediment budget for the 1994-2009 period. Sediment retained in the lake is determined from two bathymetric surveys taken 20 years apart whereas the sediment leaving the lake is calculated based on measured discharge and observed sediment concentrations. Results show that annually on average 34 t/ha/year of sediment is removed from the gauged part of the Lake Tana watersheds. Depending on the up-scaling method from the gauged to the ungauged part, 21 to 32 t/ha/year (equivalent to 24-38 Mt/year) is transported from the upland watersheds of which 46% to 65% is retained in the flood plains and 93% to 96% is trapped on the flood plains and in the lake. Thus, only 4-7% of all sediment produced in the watersheds leaves the Lake Tana Basin.

Low Flow Trends and Frequency Analysis in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Low flow analysis provides crucial information for the planning and design water resource development, risk assessment and environmental flow management. Understanding the low flow regimes and evaluating the magnitudes for incorporating in water resources management is vital for the countries like Ethiopia where demand for water is increasing. However, there were hardly enough studies in understanding the trends of low flow and frequency analysis. Therefore, this study focuses on evaluation of the trends in low flows and regional low flow analysis in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. In order to carry out the study, 15 river sub-basins in the Blue Nile Basin were selected based on the long term data availability and presence of quality of data. The 3-day sustained low flow (3d-slf), the 7-day sustained low flow (7d-slf) and the 14-day sustained low flow (14d-slf) models were used to extract the data from the daily time series stream data obtained from MoWIE. Trends in low flow were analyzed separately by using Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test. Low flow frequency analysis was used to estimate the long term low flow quantiles. In addition, regional analysis for estimating the quantiles for ungaged catchments was also developed based on the regional growth curve and catchment characteristic of drainage basins. The results indicated that 3d-slf, 7d-slf and 14d-slf models of low flow series indicated no significant difference for each station at 95% CI. Out of the 15 selected stations, 12 of stations have indicated decreasing; two stations indicated increasing and remaining one station with no trend. Mainly decreasing trend was associated with the land cover and climate change which results in increasing runoff and evapotranspiration respectively. Weibull distribution—GEV and LGN was found best fit based on the L-Moment Ratio Diagram (L-MRD). Hence quantile estimations have indicated diminishing magnitudes of low flow quintiles for 2 - 500 years return periods. Regional low frequency analysis has provided a very good relationship between discharge and catchment characteristics with an R2 of 0.72. Where area (A) and rainfall (R) followed by slope were found sensitive to compute in developing the regional region equations between mean low flows and the physiographic data. This study indicated that there needs to be a new water management scenario and adaptation mechanism of climate change and land use land cover dynamics for utilizing water resource in the Blue Nile Basin.

Evaluating erosion control practices in an actively gullying watershed in the highlands of Ethiopia: Evaluating erosion control in an actively gullying watershed

Soil erosion, with significant contributions from gullies, is a serious problem in the Ethiopian highlands. The objective of this paper is to examine patterns of discharge and sediment transport in the Ethiopian highlands, and to provide an initial assessment of whether soil and water conservation practices (SWCP) can reduce sediment loads in watersheds with actively eroding gullies. The study was conducted in the 414-ha Ene-Chilala watershed with a unimodal sub-humid monsoon climate and actively eroding gullies in the valley bottoms. In 2013 and 2014, the local community was mandated to install upland infiltration furrows and farmers voluntarily rehabilitated six gully heads and protected 16m of eroding stream banks. Discharge and sediment concentration were measured in two upslope watersheds and at the outlet. Since median infiltration capacity in the uplands was always greater than the rainfall intensity, saturation excess and interflow were main runoff pathways. After 175mm cumulative rainfall, the groundwater table reached the surface in the valley bottoms, restricting infiltration, and runoff was generated as saturation excess overland flow and flowed through active gullies out of the watershed. Upland rill erosion on ploughed land early in the rain phase, and gully erosion in saturated valley bottoms thereafter, were sources of sediment in the rivers. The mandated infiltration furrows installed on the contour overtopped and damaged cropland. The off-contour furrows increased streamflow. Gully rehabilitation of an upland gully effectively reduced stream sediment concentration in the upland weir. However, there was little benefit at the watershed outlet since the stream picked up the unconsolidated sediment from the failing banks in the downstream porting of the watershed. Therefore, soil conservation programs that in addition to installing upland practices, rehabilitate the main sediment source (gullies) appear to be the most effective approach to reducing in-stream suspended sediment concentrations.