Manfred Dorninger

The Convective and Orographically Induced Precipitation Study:A Research and Development Project of the World Weather Research Program for Improving Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting in Low-mountain Regions

Abstract The international field campaign called the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) took place from June to August 2007 in southwestern Germany/eastern France. The overarching goal of COPS is to advance the quality of forecasts of orographically-induced convective precipitation by four-dimensional observations and modeling of its life cycle. COPS was endorsed as one of the Research and Development Projects of the World Weather Research Program (WWRP), and combines the efforts of institutions and scientists from eight countries. A strong collaboration between instrument principal investigators and experts on mesoscale modeling has been established within COPS. In order to study the relative importance of large-scale and small-scale forcing leading to convection initiation in low mountains, COPS is coordinated with a one-year General Observations Period in central Europe, the WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project MAP D-PHASE, and the first summertime European THORPEX Regional...

MAP D-PHASE: Real-Time Demonstration of Weather Forecast Quality in the Alpine Region

Demonstration of probabilistic hydrological and atmospheric simulation of flood events in the Alpine region (D-PHASE) is made by the Forecast Demonstration Project in connection with the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). Its focus lies in the end-to-end flood forecasting in a mountainous region such as the Alps and surrounding lower ranges. Its scope ranges from radar observations and atmospheric and hydrological modeling to the decision making by the civil protection agents. More than 30 atmospheric high-resolution deterministic and probabilistic models coupled to some seven hydrological models in various combinations provided real-time online information. This information was available for many different catchments across the Alps over a demonstration period of 6 months in summer/ fall 2007. The Web-based exchange platform additionally contained nowcasting information from various operational services and feedback channels for the forecasters and end users. D-PHASE applications include objective model verification and intercomparison, the assessment of (subjective) end user feedback, and evaluation of the overall gain from the coupling of the various components in the end-to-end forecasting system.

A Mesoscale Data Analysis and Downscaling Method over Complex Terrain

Abstract A mesoscale data analysis method for meteorological station reports is presented. Irregularly distributed measured values are combined with measurement-independent a priori information about the modification of analysis fields due to topographic forcing. As a physical constraint to a thin-plate spline interpolation, the so-called “fingerprint method” recognizes patterns of topographic impact in the data and allows for the transfer of information to data-sparse areas. The results of the method are small-scale interpolation fields on a regular grid including topographically induced patterns that are not resolved by the station network. Presently, the fingerprint method is designed for the analysis of scalar meteorological variables like reduced pressure or air temperature. The principles for the fingerprint technique are based on idealized influence fields. They are calculated for thermal and dynamic surface forcing. For the former, the effects of reduced air volumes in valleys, the elevated heat s...

Inversion Breakup in Small Rocky Mountain and Alpine Basins

Comparisons are made between the postsunrise breakup of temperature inversions in two similar closed basins in very different climate settings, one in the eastern Alps and one in the Rocky Mountains. The small, highaltitude, limestone sinkholes have both experienced extreme temperature minima below 2508C and both develop strong nighttime inversions. On undisturbed clear nights, temperature inversions reach to 120-m heights in both sinkholes but are much stronger in the drier Rocky Mountain basin (24 vs 13 K). Inversion destruction takes place 2.6‐3 h after sunrise in these basins and is accomplished primarily by subsidence warming associated with the removal of air from the base of the inversion by the upslope flows that develop over heated sidewalls. A conceptual model of this destruction is presented, emphasizing the asymmetry of the boundary layer development around the basin and the effects of solar shading by the surrounding ridgeline. Differences in inversion strengths and postsunrise heating rates between the two basins are caused by differences in the surface energy budget, with drier soil and a higher sensible heat flux in the Rocky Mountain sinkhole. Inversions in the small basins break up more quickly following sunrise than for previously studied valleys. The pattern of inversion breakup in the non-snow-covered basins is the same as that reported in snow-covered Colorado valleys. The similar breakup patterns in valleys and basins suggest that along-valley wind systems play no role in the breakups, since the small basins have no along-valley wind system.

A Sinkhole Field Experiment in the Eastern Alps

Abstract Because sinkholes are an excellent natural laboratory for studying processes leading to the formation, maintenance, and dissipation of temperature inversions, an extended set of meteorological field experiments was conducted in limestone sinkholes of various sizes and shapes in the eastern Alps during the period from 17 October 2001 through 4 June 2002. The experiments were conducted in an area surrounding the Gruenloch Sinkhole, which in earlier years had recorded the lowest surface minimum temperature in Central Europe, −52.6°C. A dense array of surface temperature sensors and three automatic weather stations were operated continuously during the experimental period, and special experiments enhanced with tethersondes and other equipment were conducted from 2 to 4 June 2002. An overview of the experiments is presented and first results are given.

The convective and orographically-induced precipitation study

Abstract The international field campaign called the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) took place from June to August 2007 in southwestern Germany/eastern France. The overarching goal of COPS is to advance the quality of forecasts of orographically-induced convective precipitation by four-dimensional observations and modeling of its life cycle. COPS was endorsed as one of the Research and Development Projects of the World Weather Research Program (WWRP), and combines the efforts of institutions and scientists from eight countries. A strong collaboration between instrument principal investigators and experts on mesoscale modeling has been established within COPS. In order to study the relative importance of large-scale and small-scale forcing leading to convection initiation in low mountains, COPS is coordinated with a one-year General Observations Period in central Europe, the WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project MAP D-PHASE, and the first summertime European THORPEX Regional...

RESEARCH CAMPAIGN: The Convective and Orographically Induced Precipitation Study

Abstract The international field campaign called the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) took place from June to August 2007 in southwestern Germany/eastern France. The overarching goal of COPS is to advance the quality of forecasts of orographically-induced convective precipitation by four-dimensional observations and modeling of its life cycle. COPS was endorsed as one of the Research and Development Projects of the World Weather Research Program (WWRP), and combines the efforts of institutions and scientists from eight countries. A strong collaboration between instrument principal investigators and experts on mesoscale modeling has been established within COPS. In order to study the relative importance of large-scale and small-scale forcing leading to convection initiation in low mountains, COPS is coordinated with a one-year General Observations Period in central Europe, the WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project MAP D-PHASE, and the first summertime European THORPEX Regional...

Meteorological Events Affecting Cold-Air Pools in a Small Basin

Meteorological events affecting the evolution of temperature inversions or cold-air pools in the 1-km-diameter, high-altitude (;1300 m MSL) Grunloch basin in the eastern Alps are investigated using data from lines of temperature dataloggers running up the basin sidewalls, nearby weather stations, and weather charts. Nighttime cold-air-pool events observed from October 2001 to June 2002 are categorized into undisturbed inversion evo- lution, late buildups, early breakups, mixing events, layered erosion at the inversion top, temperature disturbances occurring in the lower or upper elevations of the pool, and inversion buildup caused by the temporary clearing of clouds. In addition, persistent multiday cold-air pools are sometimes seen. Analyses show that strong winds and cloud cover are the governing meteorological parameters that cause the inversion behavior to deviate from its undisturbed state, but wind direction can also play an important role in the life cycle of the cold-air pools, because it governs the interaction with steep or gentle slopes of theunderlying topography. Undisturbed cold-air pools are unusual in the Grunloch basin. A schematic diagram illustrates the different types of cold-air-pool events.

Thermally and Dynamically Induced Pressure Features over Complex Terrain from High-Resolution Analyses

Abstract Within the Vienna Enhanced Resolution Analysis (VERA) Climatology (VERACLIM) project, the complex influence of topographic structures on the spatial distribution of meteorological parameters has been investigated and evaluated climatologically. VERACLIM is aimed to generate a set of high-resolution analyses (lower meso-β-scale) of various meteorological parameters on a climatological basis. It tried to combine both the high spatial resolution provided by the VERA scheme that was used and the high temporal resolution of a comprehensive synoptic dataset of the last two decades, which was retrieved from ECMWF’s Meteorological Archival and Retrieval System (MARS). In the present study, the interpolated fields of reduced pressure of 3-hourly synoptic data over the Alpine region are evaluated climatologically. Using high temporal and spatial resolution, the authors were able to investigate both thermally and dynamically induced mesoscale pressure phenomena such as “Stau,” associated with trans-Alpine f...

High-resolution representation of the mechanisms responsible for the initiation of isolated thunderstorms over flat and complex terrains: analysis of CSIP and COPS cases

Two important measurement campaigns took place in Europe in the last years, the Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP) and the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) to gain a better understanding of why deep convection develops. In both campaigns, a dense network of instruments was deployed for detailed observation of the boundary layer characteristics. This paper investigates the usefulness of the combination of high-resolution surface, GPS, and radiosonde measurements to ascertain the likelihood of deep convection in particular for the complex terrain of the COPS domain. Two convection episodes were analysed for this purpose, one from the CSIP campaign and one from the COPS experiment. This study shows that despite the high spatial resolution of the radiosonde network in comparison to current observations, it was necessary to ascertain higher-resolution data sets illustrating the spatial variability of humidity, atmospheric stability, and convective inhibition. GPS and radiosonde data were used to determine high-resolution humidity fields, yielding high-resolution convection-related parameters’ fields representing atmospheric instability and inhibition in the area. The surface data provided a high-resolution representation of the near-surface convergence zones, which acted as triggering mechanism. The use of GPS measurements and surface stations, in addition to radiosonde measurements, turned out to be especially helpful to determine the regions of increased likelihood of deep convection.