Manfred Hafner

Transition Towards a Low Carbon Energy System by 2050: What role for the EU

Each semester the THINK project publishes two research reports based on topics proposed by the European Commission

The Challenge of Energy Access in Africa

There are multiple dimensions to the problem of energy access in Sub-Saharan Africa, where large shares of population lack a reliable supply of electricity and affordable modern cooking fuels: from insufficient power generation capacity, to difficulties in managing energy infrastructure and attract investments in the sector, to challenges in serving low-income users. Booming populations, urbanization, and ambitions of economic development will all demand more energy. This chapter illustrates the main challenges ahead towards the sustainable development objective of achieving universal access to electricity and clean cooking in the region.

Energy Investments for Africa’s Energy Transition

The challenge of bringing modern energy to everyone in Africa is a global challenge that requires substantial investments as well as a strong commitment to make the energy sector more effective and efficient within the single countries. This chapter suggests that both African governments and the plethora of foreign investors have the possibility to improve the situation, taking action respectively in terms of structural reforms (of power utilities and pro-poor subsidies) and in the coordination and streamlining of financial assistance. Notably EU countries and institutions—together with the World Bank Group the largest investor in energy development in the region—could easily reduce the bureaucracy and redundancy of existing electrification programs to achieve greater impact. In this process, the objective of universal clean cooking and the actual investments required to achieve it (particularly in LPG and bioenergy) should not be forgotten.

Prospects for Renewable Energy in Africa

Not long ago renewable power generation was an expensive choice to be subsidised by industrialized governments to signal an intention to shift to clean energy, however today renewable resources are becoming strategic assets for developing countries too, as the global industry grows stronger and the cost of technology falls dramatically. Their potential is particularly evident in Africa where solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and biomass resources are abundant. While it is becoming evident that renewables have a major role to play in the electrification process of many countries in the region—including at small scale and off-grid—several challenges remain when it comes to establishing appropriate regulations, attracting foreign investments, and even sometimes simply setting clear targets. After describing the distribution of resources, this chapter looks at the policy frameworks in place in order to point at possible ways forward.

Energy in Africa: Challenges and Opportunities

Energy poverty is a major barrier to development, and this problem is particularly evident in sub-Saharan Africa, where the majority of the population lives without access to electricity and clean cooking. The continent has more than enough resources to satisfy its current and future demands, but most countries struggle with significant difficulties to attract large investments and to support virtuous small businesses, both necessary to run the race towards universal access to modern energy. After introducing the problem in its most critical features, this book looks at existing opportunities, with the double objective of providing a snapshot of Africa’s resources (both renewable and non-renewable) and to discuss their potential in the light of today’s global energy landscape. While the main focus is on the specific challenges of sub-Saharan Africa, when it comes to resources an effort is made to paint a complete picture of the continent, implicitly suggesting the potential for a pan-African energy future. In the final chapter, the book sheds light on the level of investments required to scale up Africa’s energy systems, discussing the role of international financing institutions and calling for greater coordination among European initiatives on the one hand and more effort to tackle the problem of clean cooking on the other hand.

The Role of Hydrocarbons in Africa’s Energy Mix

Africa is rich in hydrocarbon resources, with some countries ranking among the biggest exporters in the world. Compared of North Africa and also South Africa, where this endowment translated into the creation of domestic markets, in the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa investments have largely focused on the upstream industry for export. This chapter elaborates on the possible role of hydrocarbon resources in the future of SSA countries, taking into account the new reality that renewable energy is becoming more and more competitive as well as the fact that—despite increasing climate and environmental concerns that see international financing institutions increasingly reticent to support investments in fossil fuels—the sector remains strategic for many countries.

Toward a New Euro-Mediterranean Energy Roadmap: Setting the Key Milestones

Abstract The energy situation in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs) continues to be characterized by a rapid increase of energy demand, low energy efficiency, and low domestic energy prices due to the extensive deployment of universal consumption subsidies. The patterns of energy supply and consumption greatly affect the main macroeconomic parameters of the countries, including fiscal balances and poverty trends. In short, the current energy situation of SEMCs does not appear sustainable and poses several risks to the prospects of socioeconomic development of the region. This chapter intends to shed light on these crucial issues, first of all by providing an overview of the regional energy landscape, and then – on this basis – by setting the six fundamentals milestones of a new Euro-Mediterranean Energy Roadmap aimed at enhancing regional cooperation in the field to achieve a truly sustainable development path.

East Africa: The Next Game-Changer for the Global Gas Markets?

The geographical distribution of African natural gas resources is going through a period of profound change as new gas discoveries in East Africa emerge to reshape the continents energy landscape. This region is rapidly establishing itself as a world-class natural gas province and two countries have already emerged as key-players of this new African natural gas renaissance: Mozambique and Tanzania. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the gas developments in the region, which could well become the next game-changer of the global gas market.

The External Cost of European Crude Oil Imports

This paper is the first to assess operational and probabilistic externalities of oil extraction and transportation to Europe on the basis of a comprehensive evaluation of realistic future oil demand-supply scenarios, of the relative relevance of import routes, of the local specificities in terms of critical passages and different burdens and impacts along import routes. The resulting externalities appear reasonable both under the assumption of high future demand and under low demand. Estimates range from 2.32 Euro in 2030 in the low demand scenario to 2.60 Euro in 2010 in the high demand scenario per ton of imported oil.