Manfredi Manizza

An analysis of the carbon balance of the Arctic Basin from 1997 to 2006

This study used several model-based tools to analyse the dynamics of the Arctic Basin between 1997 and 2006 as a linked system of land-ocean-atmosphere C exchange. The analysis estimates that terrestrial areas of the Arctic Basin lost 62.9 Tg C yr-1 and that the Arctic Ocean gained 94.1 Tg C yr-1. Arctic lands and oceans were a net CO2 sink of 108.9 Tg C yr-1, which is within the range of uncertainty in estimates from atmospheric inversions. Although both lands and oceans of the Arctic were estimated to be CO2 sinks, the land sink diminished in strength because of increased fire disturbance compared to previous decades, while the ocean sink increased in strength because of increased biological pump activity associated with reduced sea ice cover. Terrestrial areas of the Arctic were a net source of 41.5 Tg CH4 yr-1 that increased by 0.6 Tg CH4 yr-1 during the decade of analysis, a magnitude that is comparable with an atmospheric inversion of CH4. Because the radiative forcing of the estimated CH4 emissions is much greater than the CO2 sink, the analysis suggests that the Arctic Basin is a substantial net source of green house gas forcing to the climate system.

Modeling transport and fate of riverine dissolved organic carbon in the Arctic Ocean

Received 8 October 2008; revised 5 June 2009; accepted 12 June 2009; published 7 October 2009. [1] The spatial distribution and fate of riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the Arctic may be significant for the regional carbon cycle but are difficult to fully characterize using the sparse observations alone. Numerical models of the circulation and biogeochemical cycles of the region can help to interpret and extrapolate the data and may ultimately be applied in global change sensitivity studies. Here we develop and explore a regional, three-dimensional model of the Arctic Ocean in which, for the first time, we explicitly represent the sources of riverine DOC with seasonal discharge based on climatological field estimates. Through a suite of numerical experiments, we explore the distribution of DOC-like tracers with realistic riverine sources and a simple linear decay to represent remineralization through microbial degradation. The model reproduces the slope of the DOC-salinity relationship observed in the eastern and western Arctic basins when the DOC tracer lifetime is about 10 years, consistent with published inferences from field data. The new empirical parameterization of riverine DOC and the regional circulation and biogeochemical model provide new tools for application in both regional and global change studies.

Weak response of oceanic dimethylsulfide to upper mixing shoaling induced by global warming

The solar radiation dose in the oceanic upper mixed layer (SRD) has recently been identified as the main climatic force driving global dimethylsulfide (DMS) dynamics and seasonality. Because DMS is suggested to exert a cooling effect on the earth radiative budget through its involvement in the formation and optical properties of tropospheric clouds over the ocean, a positive relationship between DMS and the SRD supports the occurrence of a negative feedback between the oceanic biosphere and climate, as postulated 20 years ago. Such a natural feedback might partly counteract anthropogenic global warming through a shoaling of the mixed layer depth (MLD) and a consequent increase of the SRD and DMS concentrations and emission. By applying two globally derived DMS diagnostic models to global fields of MLD and chlorophyll simulated with an Ocean General Circulation Model coupled to a biogeochemistry model for a 50% increase of atmospheric CO2 and an unperturbed control run, we have estimated the response of the DMS-producing pelagic ocean to global warming. Our results show a net global increase in surface DMS concentrations, especially in summer. This increase, however, is so weak (globally 1.2%) that it can hardly be relevant as compared with the radiative forcing of the increase of greenhouse gases. This contrasts with the seasonal variability of DMS (1000–2000% summer-to-winter ratio). We suggest that the “plankton–DMS–clouds–earth albedo feedback” hypothesis is less strong a long-term thermostatic system than a seasonal mechanism that contributes to regulate the solar radiation doses reaching the earths biosphere.

Ocean biogeochemical response to phytoplankton-light feedback in a global model

Oceanic phytoplankton, absorbing solar radiation, can influence the bio-optical properties of seawater and hence upper ocean physics. We include this process in a global ocean general circulation model (OGCM) coupled to a dynamic green ocean model (DGOM) based on multiple plankton functional types (PFT). We not only study the impact of this process on ocean physics but we also explore the biogeochemical response due to this biophysical feedback. The phytoplankton-light feedback (PLF) impacts the dynamics of the upper tropical and subtropical oceans. The change in circulation enhances both the vertical supply in the tropics and the lateral supply of nutrients from the tropics to the subtropics boosting the subtropical productivity by up to 60 gC m(-2) a(-1). Physical changes, due to the PLF, impact on light and nutrient availability causing shifts in the ocean ecosystems. In the extratropics, increased stratification favors calcifiers (by up to similar to 8%) at the expense of mixed phytoplankton. In the Southern Ocean, silicifiers increase their biomass (by up to similar to 10%) because of the combined alleviation of iron and light limitation. The PLF has a small effect globally on air-sea fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2, 72 TmolC a(-1) outgassing) and oxygen (O-2, 46 TmolO(2) a(-1) ingassing) because changes in biogeochemical processes (primary production, biogenic calcification, and export production) highly vary regionally and can also oppose each other. From our study it emerges that the main impact of the PLF is an amplification of the seasonal cycle of physical and biogeochemical properties of the high-latitude oceans mostly driven by the amplification of the SST seasonal cycle.

Estimating net community production in the Southern Ocean based on atmospheric potential oxygen and satellite ocean color data

(1) The seasonal cycle of atmospheric potential oxygen (APOO2 + 1.1 CO2) reflects three seasonally varying ocean processes: 1) thermal in- and outgassing, 2) mixed layer net community production (NCP) and 3) deep water ventilation. Previous studies have isolated the net biological seasonal signal (i.e., the sum of NCP and ventilation), after using air-sea heat flux data to estimate the thermal signal. In this study, we resolve all three components of the APO seasonal cycle using a methodology in which the ventilation signal is estimated based on atmospheric N2O data, the thermal signal is estimated based on heat flux or atmospheric Ar/N2 data, and the production signal is inferred as a residual. The isolation of the NCP signal in APO allows for direct comparison to estimates of NCP based on satellite ocean color data, after translating the latter into an atmospheric signal using an atmospheric transport model. When applied to ocean color data using algorithms specially adapted to the Southern Ocean and APO data at three southern monitoring sites, these two independent methods converge on a similar phase and amplitude of the seasonal NCP signal in APO and yield an estimate of annual mean NCP south of 50°S of 0.8-1.2 Pg C/yr, with corresponding annual mean NPP of � 3 Pg C/yr and a mean growing season f ratio of � 0.33. These results are supported by ocean biogeochemistry model simulations, in which air-sea O2 and N2O fluxes are resolved into component thermal, ventilation and (for O2) NCP contributions. Citation: Nevison, C. D., R. F. Keeling, M. Kahru, M. Manizza, B. G. Mitchell, and N. Cassar (2012), Estimating net community production in the Southern Ocean based on atmospheric potential oxygen and satellite ocean color data, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 26, GB1020, doi:10.1029/2011GB004040.

Correcting oceanic O2/Ar-net community production estimates for vertical mixing using N2O observations

The O2/Ar approach has become a key method to estimate oceanic net community production (NCP). However, in some seasons and regions of the ocean, strong vertical mixing of O2-depleted deepwater introduces a large error into O2/Ar-derived NCP estimates. In these cases, undersaturated-O2/Ar observations have for all intents and purposes been ignored. We propose to combine underway O2/Ar and N2O observations into a composite tracer that is conservative with respect to the influence of vertical mixing on the surface biological O2 inventory. We test the proposed method with an ocean observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) in which we compare N2O-O2/Ar and O2/Ar-only gas flux estimates of NCP to the model-simulated true NCP in the Southern Ocean. Our proof-of-concept simulations show that the N2O-O2/Ar tracer significantly improves NCP estimates when/where vertical mixing is important.

Sensitivity of global ocean biogeochemical dynamics to ecosystem structure in a future climate

Terrestrial and oceanic ecosystem components of the Earth System models (ESMs) are key to predict the future behavior of the global carbon cycle. Ocean ecosystem models represent low complexity compared to terrestrial ecosystem models. In this study we use two ocean biogeochemical models based on the explicit representation of multiple planktonic functional types. We impose to the models the same future physical perturbation and compare the response of ecosystem dynamics, export production (EP) and ocean carbon uptake (OCU) to the same physical changes. Models comparison shows that: (1) EP changes directly translate into changes of OCU on decadal time scale, (2) the representation of ecosystem structure plays a pivotal role at linking OCU and EP, (3) OCU is highly sensitive to representation of ecosystem in the Equatorial Pacific and Southern Oceans.

Evaluating CMIP5 ocean biogeochemistry and Southern Ocean carbon uptake using atmospheric potential oxygen: Present-day performance and future projection

Observed seasonal cycles in atmospheric potential oxygen (APO~O2 + 1.1 CO2) were used to evaluate eight ocean biogeochemistry models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Model APO seasonal cycles were computed from the CMIP5 air-sea O2 and CO2 fluxes and compared to observations at three Southern Hemisphere monitoring sites. Four of the models captured either the observed APO seasonal amplitude or phasing relatively well, while the other four did not. Many models had an unrealistic seasonal phasing or amplitude of the CO2 flux, which in turn influenced APO. By 2100 under RCP8.5, the models projected little change in the O2 component of APO but large changes in the seasonality of the CO2 component associatedwith ocean acidification. Themodels with poorer performance on present-day APO tended to project larger net carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean, both today and in 2100.

Impacts of ENSO on air‐sea oxygen exchange: Observations and mechanisms

Models and observations of Atmospheric Potential Oxygen (APO ≃ O2 + 1.1*CO2) are used to investigate the influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on air-sea O2 exchange. An atmospheric transport inversion of APO data from the Scripps flask network shows significant interannual variability in tropical APO fluxes that is positively correlated with the Nino3.4 index, indicating anomalous ocean outgassing of APO during El Nino. Hindcast simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL) model show similar APO sensitivity to ENSO, differing from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL) model, which shows an opposite APO response. In all models, O2 accounts for most APO flux variations. Detailed analysis in CESM shows the O2 response is driven primarily by ENSO-modulation of the source and rate of equatorial upwelling, which moderate the intensity of O2 uptake due to vertical transport of low-O2 waters. These upwelling changes dominate over counteracting effects of biological productivity and thermally-driven O2 exchange. During El Nino, shallower and weaker upwelling leads to anomalous O2 outgassing, whereas deeper and intensified upwelling during La Nina drives enhanced O2 uptake. This response is strongly localized along the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, leading to an equatorial zonal dipole in atmospheric anomalies of APO. This dipole is further intensified by ENSO-related changes in winds, reconciling apparently conflicting APO observations in the tropical Pacific. These findings suggest a substantial and complex response of the oceanic O2 cycle to climate variability that is significantly (>50%) underestimated in magnitude by ocean models.

Net primary productivity estimates and environmental variables in the Arctic Ocean: An assessment of coupled physical-biogeochemical models

The relative skill of 21 regional and global biogeochemical models was assessed in terms of how well the models reproduced observed net primary productivity (NPP) and environmental variables such as nitrate concentration (NO3), mixed layer depth (MLD), euphotic layer depth (Zeu), and sea ice concentration, by comparing results against a newly updated, quality-controlled in situ NPP database for the Arctic Ocean (1959–2011). The models broadly captured the spatial features of integrated NPP (iNPP) on a pan-Arctic scale. Most models underestimated iNPP by varying degrees in spite of overestimating surface NO3, MLD, and Zeu throughout the regions. Among the models, iNPP exhibited little difference over sea ice condition (ice-free versus ice-influenced) and bottom depth (shelf versus deep ocean). The models performed relatively well for the most recent decade and toward the end of Arctic summer. In the Barents and Greenland Seas, regional model skill of surface NO3 was best associated with how well MLD was reproduced. Regionally, iNPP was relatively well simulated in the Beaufort Sea and the central Arctic Basin, where in situ NPP is low and nutrients are mostly depleted. Models performed less well at simulating iNPP in the Greenland and Chukchi Seas, despite the higher model skill in MLD and sea ice concentration, respectively. iNPP model skill was constrained by different factors in different Arctic Ocean regions. Our study suggests that better parameterization of biological and ecological microbial rates (phytoplankton growth and zooplankton grazing) are needed for improved Arctic Ocean biogeochemical modeling.