Manuela Alcañiz

Calculation of the Variance in Surveys of the Economic Climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated. As in any survey conducted on a sample the question of the measurement of the sample error of the results has to be addressed, since the error influences both the reliability of the results and the calculation of the sample size adequate for a desired confidence interval. The results presented here are based on data from the Survey of the Business Climate (Encuesta de Clima Empresarial) developed through the collaboration of the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Institut d’Estadistica de Catalunya) with the Chambers of Commerce (Camaras de Comercio) of Sabadell and Terrassa.

The impact of traffic violations on the estimated cost of traffic accidents with victims

We analyse accidents with victims and calculate the influence of traffic violations on the probability of having a serious or fatal accident, compared to a slight accident. Traffic violations related to speed limitations, administrative infringements or faults related to the driver are considered. Data were obtained from all available reports on accidents with victims that occurred in Spain from 2003 to 2005. A multinomial logistic regression model is specified to find the probability that an accident with victims is slight, serious or fatal, given the presence/absence of thirty different types of traffic violations. The average cost per victim and the average number of victims per accident are then used to find the estimated cost of an accident with victims, given the information on the traffic violations incurred. This demonstrates which combinations of traffic violations lead to higher estimated average costs, compared to cases in which no traffic violation occurred. We conclude with some recommendations on the severity of penalties, and suggest that regulators penalize the occurrences of some specific combinations of traffic violations more rigorously.

A Logistic Regression Approach to Estimating Customer Profit Loss Due to Lapses in Insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

Factors affecting hospital admission and recovery stay duration of in-patient motor victims in Spain.

Hospital expenses are a major cost driver of healthcare systems in Europe, with motor injuries being the leading mechanism of hospitalizations. This paper investigates the injury characteristics which explain the hospitalization of victims of traffic accidents that took place in Spain. Using a motor insurance database with 16,081 observations a generalized Tobit regression model is applied to analyse the factors that influence both the likelihood of being admitted to hospital after a motor collision and the length of hospital stay in the event of admission. The consistency of Tobit estimates relies on the normality of perturbation terms. Here a semi-parametric regression model was fitted to test the consistency of estimates, concluding that a normal distribution of errors cannot be rejected. Among other results, it was found that older men with fractures and injuries located in the head and lower torso are more likely to be hospitalized after the collision, and that they also have a longer expected length of hospital recovery stay.

Prevalencia y condicionantes de la obesidad en la población infantojuvenil de Cataluña, 2006-2012

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalence of obesity and overweight in children aged 2 to 14 years in Catalonia, its trends between 2006 and 2010-2012, and to evaluate social determinants and lifestyle associated with obesity. MATERIAL AND METHODS A cross-sectional study, using the data from 4,389 surveys from Catalonia Health Surveys of the years 2006 and 2010-2012, was conducted. Obesity and overweight were determined by World Health Organization criteria. Socioeconomic position, parents education, usual diet and activity, and hours of sleep were assessed. RESULTS The prevalence of obesity and overweight were: 15.4 and 20.2% in 2010-2012. The prevalence of obesity was higher in boys (15.5%) compared to girls (12.8%) (P<.05), and higher in children ranging from 2 to 9 years old (17.5%) than children aged 10 to 14 years (7.7%) (P<.05). In 2006, the prevalence of obesity and overweight were similar to the prevalence in 2010-2012. Obesity was more frequent in children with parents with a low socioeconomic position and/or a primary or elementary parents education. CONCLUSIONS During the last 5 years (2006-2012), child obesity and overweight have remained stable in Catalonia, yet they are relatively high in Europe. Public health programmes against obesity must consider conducting an intersectional action taking social determinants and family life styles into account.

Prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers based on random breath tests in a roadside survey in Catalonia (Spain).

Sobriety checkpoints are not usually randomly located by traffic authorities. As such, information provided by non-random alcohol tests cannot be used to infer the characteristics of the general driving population. In this paper a case study is presented in which the prevalence of alcohol-impaired driving is estimated for the general population of drivers. A stratified probabilistic sample was designed to represent vehicles circulating in non-urban areas of Catalonia (Spain), a region characterized by its complex transportation network and dense traffic around the metropolis of Barcelona. Random breath alcohol concentration tests were performed during spring 2012 on 7596 drivers. The estimated prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers was 1.29%, which is roughly a third of the rate obtained in non-random tests. Higher rates were found on weekends (1.90% on Saturdays and 4.29% on Sundays) and especially at night. The rate is higher for men (1.45%) than for women (0.64%) and it shows an increasing pattern with age. In vehicles with two occupants, the proportion of alcohol-impaired drivers is estimated at 2.62%, but when the driver was alone the rate drops to 0.84%, which might reflect the socialization of drinking habits. The results are compared with outcomes in previous surveys, showing a decreasing trend in the prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers over time.

Educational attainment, gender and health inequalities among older adults in Catalonia (Spain).

BackgroundHealth expectancies vary worldwide according to socioeconomic status (SES), with health disadvantages being evident among lower SES groups. Using educational attainment as a proxy of SES, we seek to identify trends in SES differentials in health by gender, with a particular focus on individuals with low educational attainment in the adult Catalan population (Spain) aged 55 or older.MethodsUsing cross-sectional data for 1994 and 2010-2014 drawn from the Catalan Health Survey, we examined three health indicators to document social health inequalities: self-perceived health, functional limitations, and restrictions on activities of daily living (ADL). We applied logistic models for each indicator, controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, health coverage and health behaviours.ResultsAmong the less-educated, females presented a greater improvement in their self-perceived health over time than did their male counterparts, there being no significant variations among the medium/high educated. Regardless of education, males showed an increase in the prevalence of functional problems (as did the women, but the increase was not statistically significant). Both genders presented a higher prevalence of limitations when performing ADL in the second time period. The gender health gap was reduced slightly both for the low and the medium/high educated, expect in the case of ADL restrictions. Health and functioning differences by education level persisted, but showed significant signs of reduction.ConclusionsLess-educated females constitute the most disadvantaged group in terms of health and personal autonomy, though there are encouraging signs that the gap is closing both in terms of gender and level of education. Health policymakers need to devote particular attention to the aging population with low SES, especially to women. Public programmes promoting greater protection and equity, while fostering preventive and healthy practices, need to target the most underprivileged.

OriginalPrevalencia y condicionantes de la obesidad en la población infantojuvenil de Cataluña, 2006-2012Prevalence and determinants of obesity in children and young people in Catalonia, Spain, 2006-2012

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalence of obesity and overweight in children aged 2 to 14 years in Catalonia, its trends between 2006 and 2010-2012, and to evaluate social determinants and lifestyle associated with obesity. MATERIAL AND METHODS A cross-sectional study, using the data from 4,389 surveys from Catalonia Health Surveys of the years 2006 and 2010-2012, was conducted. Obesity and overweight were determined by World Health Organization criteria. Socioeconomic position, parents education, usual diet and activity, and hours of sleep were assessed. RESULTS The prevalence of obesity and overweight were: 15.4 and 20.2% in 2010-2012. The prevalence of obesity was higher in boys (15.5%) compared to girls (12.8%) (P<.05), and higher in children ranging from 2 to 9 years old (17.5%) than children aged 10 to 14 years (7.7%) (P<.05). In 2006, the prevalence of obesity and overweight were similar to the prevalence in 2010-2012. Obesity was more frequent in children with parents with a low socioeconomic position and/or a primary or elementary parents education. CONCLUSIONS During the last 5 years (2006-2012), child obesity and overweight have remained stable in Catalonia, yet they are relatively high in Europe. Public health programmes against obesity must consider conducting an intersectional action taking social determinants and family life styles into account.

Implications of Unisex Assumptions in the Analysis of Longevity for Insurance Portfolios

Since the Court of Justice of the European Union (EU) imposed a rule that insurance prices cannot be different for men and women, it is relevant to look into insights of mortality rate calculation and its implications. We already know that mortality curves are distinct between men and women, mainly in youth ages. However we are interested in the longevity risk, therefore we studied elderly ages. We start the analysis describing mortality rates for each sex and age. The data used come from INEGI and CONAPO in Mexico. For each 5-year period, the number of deaths and the number of living people by age and sex are available. We assume possible scenarios of gender proportion in mortality tables. Using survival analysis we estimated the parameters of a Weibull distribution, moreover we calculated the value at risk at different confidence levels. We emphasize the limitations of using unisex mortality tables to estimate longevity risk if the proportion of male and female is not equilibrated in the insurance portfolio. The actuarial modeling is necessary even when regulatory circumstances impose rules on the use of risk factors such as gender for tarification.

Risk of dependence associated with health, social support, and lifestyle

OBJECTIVE To analyze the prevalence of individuals at risk of dependence and its associated factors. METHODS The study was based on data from the Catalan Health Survey, Spain conducted in 2010 and 2011. Logistic regression models from a random sample of 3,842 individuals aged ≥ 15 years were used to classify individuals according to the state of their personal autonomy. Predictive models were proposed to identify indicators that helped distinguish dependent individuals from those at risk of dependence. Variables on health status, social support, and lifestyles were considered. RESULTS We found that 18.6% of the population presented a risk of dependence, especially after age 65. Compared with this group, individuals who reported dependence (11.0%) had difficulties performing activities of daily living and had to receive support to perform them. Habits such as smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, and being sedentary were associated with a higher probability of dependence, particularly for women. CONCLUSIONS Difficulties in carrying out activities of daily living precede the onset of dependence. Preserving personal autonomy and function without receiving support appear to be a preventive factor. Adopting an active and healthy lifestyle helps reduce the risk of dependence.