Manuela Francisco

Exchange Rate Regimes, Inflation and Growth in Developing Countries - An Assessment

Official and four alternative regime classification schemes based on observed exchange rate behaviour are used to examine the relationship with inflation and growth in 91 developing countries over the period 1984-2001. Apart from one scheme that produces markedly unfavourable results for floating (for reasons that are discussed in the paper), the consistent findings are that (a) floats have similar growth rates to soft pegs and only slightly higher inflation; and (b) hard pegs have lower inflation and slower growth than other regimes.

Trade liberalization and ‘export response’: Whither complementary reforms?

What enables Ecuadorian manufacturing firms to start exporting? And what are the determinants of the share of total sales exported by a firm, once the decision of becoming an exporter has been made? We apply a Heckman selection model to the Ecuadors Investment Climate Survey (ICS) to investigate supply-side constraints to export performance at the firm level. We estimate export propensity (the probability of exporting) and export intensity (the share of total sales that are exported). The application of the Heckman selection model to a rich dataset as the ICS is a major contribution as previous applications of the Heckman selection model used much limited datasets, limiting the range of hypotheses to be tested. Furthermore, other studies on export performance based on ICS data use either Tobit or Probit models, incurring important methodological limitations. We find robust and stable relationships for export propensity and intensity with firm size, import of inputs, labor regulations, in-house R&D, quality certification, Web use, and foreign ownership. Capacity utilization and trade with the US positively affect export intensity, while trade within the Andean Community has the opposite effect in our outcome variable. No significant relationship was found with the infrastructure variables.

IS THE PHILLIPS CURVE DIFFERENT IN POOR COUNTRIES

It has been suggested that the Phillips curve (positive output†inflation correlation) is inverted in poor countries. It is argued here that the truth is more complex. In poor countries temporary supply†side shocks, for example to agricultural output, induce a negative correlation between prices and output rather than between inflation rates and output. Empirical evidence supports this hypothesis.