Mara Violato

On the causal relationship between trade-openness and government-size: evidence from OECD countries

The compensation hypothesis predicts a positive causation from international economic openness to the size of the public sector, as governments step in to perform a risk mitigating role to counterbalance the increasing exposure to external risk and the economic dislocations caused by growing international openness. We use time series data from 22 OECD countries over the period 1955-2003 and examine the statistical significance of both long-run and short-run causality channels in each country separately. Our findings fail to provide an overwhelming support for this hypothesis, with only five countries showing some evidence in its favour.

Resource use and costs associated with coeliac disease before and after diagnosis in 3,646 cases: results of a UK primary care database analysis.

Background Despite the considerable health impact of coeliac disease (CD), reliable estimates of the impact of diagnosis on health care use and costs are lacking. Aims To quantify the volume, type and costs, in a United Kingdom primary care setting, of healthcare resources used by individuals diagnosed with CD up to ten years before and after diagnosis, and to estimate medical costs associated with CD. Methods A cohort of 3,646 CD cases and a parallel cohort of 32,973 matched controls, extracted from the General Practice Research Database (GPRD) over the period 1987–2005 were used i) to evaluate the impact of diagnosis on the average resource use and costs of cases; ii) to assess direct healthcare costs due to CD by comparing average resource use and costs incurred by cases vs. controls. Results Average annual healthcare costs per patient increased by £310 (95% CI £299, £320) after diagnosis. CD cases experienced higher healthcare costs than controls both before diagnosis (mean difference £91; 95% CI: £86, £97) and after diagnosis (mean difference £354; 95% CI: £347, £361). These differences were driven mainly by higher test and referral costs before diagnosis, and by increased prescription costs after diagnosis. Conclusions This study shows significant additional primary care costs associated with coeliac disease. It provides novel evidence that will assist researchers evaluating interventions in this area, and will challenge policymakers, clinicians, researchers and the public to develop strategies that maximise the health benefits of the resources associated with this disease.

The relationship between household income and childhood respiratory health in the United Kingdom

Growing empirical evidence on the association between household income and adverse child health outcomes has generated mixed results with some North-American studies showing a significant inverse relationship and some British studies identifying a much weaker association. We use data from the rich UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) dataset and check the robustness of these recent findings by focusing on the impact of household income on adverse childhood respiratory outcomes (i.e. asthma and wheezing). We also identify pathways, such as mothers child-health-related behaviours, parental health and grandparental socioeconomic status, through which income might influence child health. Our econometric strategy is to use, both in a cross-sectional and in a panel data context, detailed information in the MCS dataset to directly account for as many potential confounding factors as possible that might bias the income-child health nexus. Overall our results show that household income has a weak direct effect on child health after we control for potential mechanisms that mediate the income-child health association. We argue that our evidence should inform government health and broader fiscal policies aimed at reducing health inequalities in childhood.

Clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of brief guided parent-delivered cognitive behavioural therapy and solution-focused brief therapy for treatment of childhood anxiety disorders: a randomised controlled trial

Summary Background Half of all lifetime anxiety disorders emerge before age 12 years; however, access to evidence-based psychological therapies for affected children is poor. We aimed to compare the clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of two brief psychological treatments for children with anxiety referred to routine child mental health settings. We hypothesised that brief guided parent-delivered cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) would be associated with better clinical outcomes than solution-focused brief therapy and would be cost-effective. Methods We did this randomised controlled trial at four National Health Service primary child and mental health services in Oxfordshire, UK. Children aged 5–12 years referred for anxiety difficulties were randomly allocated (1:1), via a secure online minimisation tool, to receive brief guided parent-delivered CBT or solution-focused brief therapy, with minimisation for age, sex, anxiety severity, and level of parental anxiety. The allocation sequence was not accessible to the researcher enrolling participants or to study assessors. Research staff who obtained outcome measurements were masked to group allocation and clinical staff who delivered the intervention did not measure outcomes. The primary outcome was recovery, on the basis of Clinical Global Impressions of Improvement (CGI-I). Parents recorded patient-level resource use. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for use in cost-utility analysis were derived from the Child Health Utility 9D. Assessments were done at baseline (before randomisation), after treatment (primary endpoint), and 6 months after treatment completion. We did analysis by intention to treat. This trial is registered with the ISCRTN registry, number ISRCTN07627865. Findings Between March 23, 2012, and March 31, 2014, we randomly assigned 136 patients to receive brief guided parent-delivered CBT (n=68) or solution-focused brief therapy (n=68). At the primary endpoint assessment (June, 2012, to September, 2014), 40 (59%) children in the brief guided parent-delivered CBT group versus 47 (69%) children in the solution-focused brief therapy group had an improvement of much or very much in CGI-I score, with no significant differences between groups in either clinical (CGI-I: relative risk 1·01, 95% CI 0·86–1·19; p=0·95) or economic (QALY: mean difference 0·006, −0·009 to 0·02; p=0·42) outcome measures. However, brief guided parent-delivered CBT was associated with lower costs (mean difference −£448; 95% CI −934 to 37; p=0·070) and, taking into account sampling uncertainty, was likely to represent a cost-effective use of resources compared with solution-focused brief therapy. No treatment-related or trial-related adverse events were reported in either group. Interpretation Our findings show no evidence of clinical superiority of brief guided parent-delivered CBT. However, guided parent-delivered CBT is likely to be a cost-effective alternative to solution-focused brief therapy and might be considered as a first-line treatment for children with anxiety problems. Funding National Institute for Health Research.

Treatment of childhood anxiety disorder in the context of maternal anxiety disorder: a randomised controlled trial and economic analysis

BACKGROUND Cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) for childhood anxiety disorders is associated with modest outcomes in the context of parental anxiety disorder. OBJECTIVES This study evaluated whether or not the outcome of CBT for children with anxiety disorders in the context of maternal anxiety disorders is improved by the addition of (i) treatment of maternal anxiety disorders, or (ii) treatment focused on maternal responses. The incremental cost-effectiveness of the additional treatments was also evaluated. DESIGN Participants were randomised to receive (i) child cognitive-behavioural therapy (CCBT); (ii) CCBT with CBT to target maternal anxiety disorders [CCBT + maternal cognitive-behavioural therapy (MCBT)]; or (iii) CCBT with an intervention to target mother-child interactions (MCIs) (CCBT + MCI). SETTING A NHS university clinic in Berkshire, UK. PARTICIPANTS Two hundred and eleven children with a primary anxiety disorder, whose mothers also had an anxiety disorder. INTERVENTIONS All families received eight sessions of individual CCBT. Mothers in the CCBT + MCBT arm also received eight sessions of CBT targeting their own anxiety disorders. Mothers in the MCI arm received 10 sessions targeting maternal parenting cognitions and behaviours. Non-specific interventions were delivered to balance groups for therapist contact. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Primary clinical outcomes were the childs primary anxiety disorder status and degree of improvement at the end of treatment. Follow-up assessments were conducted at 6 and 12 months. Outcomes in the economic analyses were identified and measured using estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). QALYS were combined with treatment, health and social care costs and presented within an incremental cost-utility analysis framework with associated uncertainty. RESULTS MCBT was associated with significant short-term improvement in maternal anxiety; however, after children had received CCBT, group differences were no longer apparent. CCBT + MCI was associated with a reduction in maternal overinvolvement and more confident expectations of the child. However, neither CCBT + MCBT nor CCBT + MCI conferred a significant post-treatment benefit over CCBT in terms of child anxiety disorder diagnoses [adjusted risk ratio (RR) 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87 to 1.62, p = 0.29; adjusted RR CCBT + MCI vs. control: adjusted RR 1.22, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.67, p = 0.20, respectively] or global improvement ratings (adjusted RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.59, p = 0.05; adjusted RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.53, p = 0.13). CCBT + MCI outperformed CCBT on some secondary outcome measures. Furthermore, primary economic analyses suggested that, at commonly accepted thresholds of cost-effectiveness, the probability that CCBT + MCI will be cost-effective in comparison with CCBT (plus non-specific interventions) is about 75%. CONCLUSIONS Good outcomes were achieved for children and their mothers across treatment conditions. There was no evidence of a benefit to child outcome of supplementing CCBT with either intervention focusing on maternal anxiety disorder or maternal cognitions and behaviours. However, supplementing CCBT with treatment that targeted maternal cognitions and behaviours represented a cost-effective use of resources, although the high percentage of missing data on some economic variables is a shortcoming. Future work should consider whether or not effects of the adjunct interventions are enhanced in particular contexts. The economic findings highlight the utility of considering the use of a broad range of services when evaluating interventions with this client group. TRIAL REGISTRATION Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN19762288. FUNDING This trial was funded by the Medical Research Council (MRC) and Berkshire Healthcare Foundation Trust and managed by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) on behalf of the MRC-NIHR partnership (09/800/17) and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 38.

Factors Associated with Sequelae of Campylobacter and Non-typhoidal Salmonella Infections: A Systematic Review

Despite the significant global burden of gastroenteritis and resulting sequelae, there is limited evidence on risk factors for sequelae development. We updated and extended previous systematic reviews by assessing the role of antibiotics, proton pump inhibitors (PPI) and symptom severity in the development of sequelae following campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis. We searched four databases, including PubMed, from 1 January 2011 to 29 April 2016. Observational studies reporting sequelae of reactive arthritis (ReA), Reiters syndrome (RS), irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) and Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) following gastroenteritis were included. The primary outcome was incidence of sequelae of interest amongst cases of campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis. A narrative synthesis was conducted where heterogeneity was high. Of the 55 articles included, incidence of ReA (n = 37), RS (n = 5), IBS (n = 12) and GBS (n = 9) were reported following campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis. A pooled summary for each sequela was not estimated due to high level of heterogeneity across studies (I2 > 90%). PPI usage and symptoms were sparsely reported. Three out of seven studies found a statistically significant association between antibiotics usage and development of ReA. Additional primary studies investigating risk modifying factors in sequelae of GI infections are required to enable targeted interventions.

Relationship between socioeconomic status and gastrointestinal infections in developed countries: A systematic review protocol

BackgroundThe association between low socioeconomic status (SES) and poor health is well documented in the existing literature. Nonetheless, evidence on the relationship between SES and gastrointestinal (GI) infections is limited, and the mechanisms underlying this relationship are not well understood with published studies pointing to conflicting results. This review aims to identify studies that investigate the relationship between SES and GI infections in developed countries, in order to assess the direction of the association and explore possible explanations for any differences in the risk, incidence or prevalence of GI infections across socioeconomic groups.MethodsThree systematic methods will be used to identify relevant literature: electronic database, reference list and grey literature searching. The databases MEDLINE, Scopus and Web of Science Core Collection will be searched using a broad range of search terms. Screening of the results will be performed by two reviewers using pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. The reference lists of included studies will be searched, and Google will be used to identify grey literature. Observational studies reporting quantitative results on the prevalence or incidence of any symptomatic GI infections by SES, in a representative population sample from a member country of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), will be included. Data will be extracted using a standardised form. Study quality will be assessed using the Liverpool University Quality Assessment Tools (LQAT). A narrative synthesis will be performed including tabulation of studies for comparison.DiscussionThis systematic review will consolidate the existing knowledge on the relationship between SES and GI infections. The results will help to identify gaps in the literature and will therefore provide an evidence base for future empirical studies to deepen the understanding of the relationship, including effective study design and appropriate data analysis methods. Ultimately, gaining insight into this relationship will help to inform policies to reduce any health inequalities identified.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO CRD42015027231

Socioeconomic status and infectious intestinal disease in the community: a longitudinal study (IID2 Study)

Abstract Background Infectious intestinal diseases (IID) are common, affecting around 25% of people in UK each year at an estimated annual cost to the economy, individuals and the NHS of £1.5 billion. While there is evidence of higher IID hospital admissions in more disadvantaged groups, the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and risk of IID remains unclear. This study aims to investigate the relationship between SES and IID in a large community cohort. Methods Longitudinal analysis of a prospective community cohort in the UK following 6836 participants of all ages was undertaken. Hazard ratios for IID by SES were estimated using Cox proportional hazard, adjusting for follow-up time and potential confounding factors. Results In the fully adjusted analysis, hazard ratio of IID was significantly lower among routine/manual occupations compared with managerial/professional occupations (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.61–0.90). Conclusion In this large community cohort, lower SES was associated with lower IID risk. This may be partially explained by the low response rate which varied by SES. However, it may be related to differences in exposure or recognition of IID symptoms by SES. Higher hospital admissions associated with lower SES observed in some studies could relate to more severe consequences, rather than increased infection risk.

The design and implementation of a study to investigate the effectiveness of community vs hospital eye service follow-up for patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration with quiescent disease

IntroductionStandard treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) is intravitreal injections of anti-VEGF drugs. Following multiple injections, nAMD lesions often become quiescent but there is a high risk of reactivation, and regular review by hospital ophthalmologists is the norm. The present trial examines the feasibility of community optometrists making lesion reactivation decisions.MethodsThe Effectiveness of Community vs Hospital Eye Service (ECHoES) trial is a virtual trial; lesion reactivation decisions were made about vignettes that comprised clinical data, colour fundus photographs, and optical coherence tomograms displayed on a web-based platform. Participants were either hospital ophthalmologists or community optometrists. All participants were provided with webinar training on the disease, its management, and assessment of the retinal imaging outputs. In a balanced design, 96 participants each assessed 42 vignettes; a total of 288 vignettes were assessed seven times by each professional group.The primary outcome is a participant’s judgement of lesion reactivation compared with a reference standard. Secondary outcomes are the frequency of sight threatening errors; judgements about specific lesion components; participant-rated confidence in their decisions about the primary outcome; cost effectiveness of follow-up by optometrists rather than ophthalmologists.DiscussionThis trial addresses an important question for the NHS, namely whether, with appropriate training, community optometrists can make retreatment decisions for patients with nAMD to the same standard as hospital ophthalmologists. The trial employed a novel approach as participation was entirely through a web-based application; the trial required very few resources compared with those that would have been needed for a conventional randomised controlled clinical trial.

Family income, maternal psychological distress and child socio-emotional behaviour: Longitudinal findings from the UK Millennium Cohort Study.

The association between low family income and socio-emotional behaviour problems in early childhood has been well-documented, and maternal psychological distress is highlighted as central in mediating this relationship. However, whether this relationship holds for older children, and the precise mechanisms by which income may influence child behaviour is unclear. This study investigated the relationship between family income and child socio-emotional behaviour at 11 years of age, and examined the mediating role of maternal psychological distress over time using the UK Millennium Cohort Study. The primary outcome was parent-reported behavioural problems, as captured by the Total Difficulties Score (TDS), derived from the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Secondary outcomes were the emotional, peer-related, conduct, and hyperactivity/inattention problems subscales of the SDQ; and teacher-reported TDS. Permanent family income was the primary exposure variable; frequency of poverty up to age 11 years was the secondary exposure variable. Maternal psychological distress was operationalised to reflect the trajectory from child birth to age 11. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate the effect of permanent family income on child behaviour at age 11, controlling for maternal psychological distress and other relevant covariates. Results showed a statistically significant protective effect of increased permanent family income on the likelihood of behavioural problems at age 11. This finding was consistent for all SDQ subscales apart from emotional problems, and was strongest for teacher-reported behavioural problems. Maternal distress was an important mediator in the income-child behaviour relationship for parent-reported, but not teacher-reported, behavioural problems. The results of this study strengthen empirical evidence that the child behaviour-income gradient is maintained in older childhood. Mother’s psychological distress, particularly longstanding or recurrent, appears to contribute to this relationship. These findings may validate calls for psychosocial and financial supports for families affected by parental mental health issues.