Marc C. Chopin

Predicting Future Buyer Behavior with Consumers' Confidence and Sentiment Indexes

Knowledge of consumer attitudes and expectations is an indispensable marketing tool and may be useful for predicting changes in consumer spending and saving patterns. However, most empirical research on the value of consumer confidence (sentiment) indexes for forecasting future buyer behavior has focused on the statistical correlation between these indexes and several measures of consumer spending and business activity. As Huth et al. (1994) correctly pointed out, a more appropriate approach is to focus on the direction of Granger-causality between these variables. Prior to testing for Granger-causality, we investigate the stationarity properties of alternative measures of these variables and we employ a flexible lag structure. Our empirical results support the use of these indexes to forecast business activity but not consumer purchases or overall economic activity.

Congressional influence on U.S. monetary policy: A reconsideration of the evidence

Abstract One of the few works that finds strong evidence of congressional influence on U.S. monetary policy is Grier (1991), which finds a direct relationship between the liberalism of the Senate oversight committee leadership and monetary base growth. We extend this analysis by considering a longer sample period and by considering the preferences of House oversight committee leaders, in addition to Senators. Griers evidence is not robust to these extensions. Where we do find correlation between congressional preferences and monetary base growth, increased liberalism of congressional oversight committees is associated with lower monetary base growth.

Professional golf: labor or leisure

Although most labor and microeconomic textbooks contain a theoretical discussion of the backward‐bending labor supply curve, scant empirical evidence of this phenomenon exists. In this paper we investigate the behavior of PGA golf professionals as they make labor‐leisure choices for performing on the PGA Tour. Using tournament theory to model this labor market and data from tournament performances over three seperate years, we find significant evidence that higher paid PGA Tour players do indeed operate in the backward‐bending region of their labor supply curves.

Congressional policy preferences and U.S. monetary policy

Abstract This paper shows that the evidence of congressional impotence in influencing U.S. monetary policy presented in Chopin et al. (1996) is robust to inclusion of a dummy variable for the tenure of House Banking Committee Chairman Wright Patman. This result is in contrast to the assertion of Grier (1996). Further, we show that specification problems of models of congressional influence over a sample period that extends beyond the mid-1980s can be the result of omitted variable bias. When macroeconomic variables, including oil price shocks, are included in the model, our results continue to hold. Contrasting our results with Griers indicates that the evidence concerning congressional influence is sensitive to the measure of congressional preferences.

Executive compensation in oligopolies: Sales, profits and pay

This chapter analyzes the owner-manager contracting problem for firms competing in imperfectly competitive markets. The strategic interdependence of firms results in optimal incentive contracts that either compensate or penalize managers for sales. The predictions of the model are tested empirically and estimates of contract coefficients are reported. The results fail to confirm the predictions of the theoretical model; however, the coefficient estimates suggest that while the effects of profits and sales on compensation vary significantly across firms and industries, managers of most firms are rewarded for increases in firm profits.

The Dollar and U.S. Inflation: Some Evidence from a Vecm Process

Large fluctuations in the dollar value in recent years rekindled fears of increased U.S. price instability. With monthly data, we employ the cointegration and error-correction modeling technique to examine the nature of the interrelationship between the dollar and U.S. prices in a multivariate setting. The empirical results reveal strong and lasting effects of changes in the dollar exchange rate on U.S. inflation. The results also indicate that money supply exerts a potent and quick impact upon U.S. prices. Therefore, it seems that the Federal Reserve has shouldered much of the responsibility with respect to U.S. price stability in the face of the dramatic changes in the dollar value in recent years.