Marc Deissenroth

When Do Households Invest in Solar Photovoltaics? - An Application of Prospect Theory

While investments in renewable energy sources (RES) are incentivized around the world, the policy tools that do so are still poorly understood, leading to costly misadjustments in many cases. As a case study, the deployment dynamics of residential solar photovoltaics (PV) invoked by the German feed-in tariff legislation are investigated. Here we report a model showing that the question of when people invest in residential PV systems is found to be not only determined by profitability, but also by profitabilitys change compared to the status quo. This finding is interpreted in the light of loss aversion, a concept developed in Kahneman and Tverskys prospect theory. The model is able to reproduce most of the dynamics of the uptake with only a few financial and behavioral assumptions.

Assessing the Plurality of Actors and Policy Interactions: Agent-Based Modelling of Renewable Energy Market Integration

The ongoing deployment of renewable energy sources (RES) calls for an enhanced integration of RES into energy markets, accompanied by a new set of regulations. In Germany, for instance, the feed-in tariff legislation for renewables has been successively replaced by first optional and then obligatory marketing of RES on competitive wholesale markets. This paper introduces an agent-based model that allows studying the impact of changing energy policy instruments on the economic performance of RES operators and marketers. The model structure, its components, and linkages are presented in detail; an additional case study demonstrates the capability of our sociotechnical model. We find that changes in the political framework cannot be mapped directly to RES operators as behaviour of intermediary market actors has to be considered as well. Characteristics and strategies of intermediaries are thus an important factor for successful RES marketing and further deployment. It is shown that the model is able to assess the emergence and stability of market niches.