Marc Klau

Some Multi-Country Evidence on the Effects of Real Exchange Rates on Output

The simultaneous occurrence of devaluation and recession in Mexico in 1995, as well as in the East Asian economies more recently, appears to contradict the conventional view that devaluations are expansionary. Moreover, a sizeable theoretical and empirical literature also argues that, contrary to the predictions of textbook analysis, exchange rate devaluations may be contractionary rather than expansionary. However, prior statistical analyses of the effects of exchange rate devaluation on output have been subject to several limitations: (i) they have failed to distinguish adequately between short and long-run effects; (ii) they have not controlled for the full range of external shocks; and (iii) they have not considered whether the effects of devaluation might differ between different regions of the world. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of devaluation on output for 27 countries while attempting to address these limitations in previous empirical analyses. We find no evidence that devaluations are contractionary in the long run. Additionally, controlling for sources of spurious correlation and reverse causality appears to mute the measured contractionary effect of devaluation in the short run, although this effect remains even after these controls are introduced. Finally, while the literature on contractionary devaluation has focused primarily on developing countries, we found no evidence that this effect is stronger in developing countries than in industrialised countries.

Measuring potential vulnerabilities in emerging market economies

This paper describes some experiments with the construction of relatively simple indices which summarise in a systematic and objective way information about emerging economies currently under pressure in financial markets and those vulnerable to such pressure in the future. A survey of the literature suggests financial crises are typically preceded by overvalued exchange rates, inadequate international reserves, recessions and excessive credit growth. These indicators and others, such as short-term external debt, which appear more important in recent crises are included in the summary indices of vulnerability. The vulnerability indices are shown to have modest predictive power for the pressure index but are far from conclusive in themselves.

Catching-Up and Inflation in Transition Economies: The Balassa-Samuelson Effect Revisited

This paper estimates the Balassa-Samuelson effects for 11 countries in central and eastern Europe on a disaggregated set of quarterly data covering the period from the mid-1990s to the first quarter of 2008. The Balassa-Samuelson effects are clearly present and explain around 24% of inflation differentials vis-a-vis the euro area (about 1.2 percentage points on average); and around 84% of domestic relative price differentials between non-tradables and tradables; or about 16% of total domestic inflation (about 1.1 percentage points on average). The paper presents mixed evidence on whether the Balassa-Samuelson effects have declined since 2001 compared with the second half of the 1990s.

Exchange rate regimes and inflation and output in sub-Saharan countries

The paper studies the role of real exchange rates and exchange rate policies in explaining differences in the economic performance in the CFA franc countries, with their fixed exchange rate regime, and another group of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with more flexible arrangements. Policy-makers in inflation-prone countries are faced with a permanent dilemma: should policy priority be given to containing inflation or to maintaining competitiveness through currency depreciation. This policy conflict tends to be aggravated by the fact that in both country groups devaluations seem to have a positive impact on economic activity, throwing doubt on previous work on possible contractionary effects of devaluations. Even so, the question as to whether the pegging of an exchange rate is advantageous, when taking account of both output and inflation effects, remains open, as it partly depends on the supply shocks to which the countries are exposed.

Higher Profits and Lower Capital Prices: Is Factor Allocation Optimal?

From an international perspective, the European rate of unemployment has been high and growing over the last one to two decades; against this background, the parallel rise in profit shares in a number of European countries seems to be at odds with expected economic behaviour.

Financial Markets Aspects of Regional Currency Areas

This book is an up-to-date, authoritative and comprehensive analysis of the key issues and challenges facing regional currency area projects in the context of financial globalization. The authors focus on several central issues that emerged during the experiences of the 1990s and 2000s: exchange rate regimes and optimal currency area theory; exchange rate regimes in emerging countries, international capital markets and regional currency areas; EMU and the euro; exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America; dollarization and the coordination of macroeconomic policies in the presence of regional currency areas.