Marc R. Rosenblum

Alternatives to Migration in the United States: Policy Issues and Economic Impact

Despite public opinion favoring reduced immigration, U.S. immigration policy since the 1980s has led to increased inflows of both legal and unauthorized immigrant workers, and migrants accounted for 12% of the U.S. population and 16% of its workforce in 2010. Given this disjuncture, this article explores practical alternatives to high levels of immigration in managing the U.S. workforce. The U.S. economy could reduce foreign-born employment by increasing employment among native workers, by increasing investment in technology and other enhancements to productivity, or by reducing production in immigrant-intensive industries. The article explores the feasibility of these alternatives in relation to current demographic and labor market conditions, possible policy tools, and the likely economic costs and benefits. The analysis reveals that the greatest economic benefits may be gained from enhancements to productivity, which would allow for reduced immigration without loss of output, whereas the reduction of U.S.-based production would likely generate net economic costs.

Electoral Systems, Ethnic Cleavages, and Experience with Democracy

Recent studies show that the effects of electoral systems and ethnic cleavages on the number of parties in emerging democracies differ from those effects observed in more established democracies. Building on recent arguments maintaining that the quality of democracy improves with experience, we argue the reason for the differences in the findings between established and emerging democracies is that the effects of these variables on the number of parties differ according to a country’s experience with elections. To test this argument, we analyse party system fragmentation in 89 established and emerging democracies and the conditioning effects experience with elections have on the effects of district magnitude, ethnic cleavages and variables relating to the presidential party system. The results show that the effects of institutional and social cleavage variables differ substantially between emerging and established democracies, but these effects begin to approximate those seen in more established democracies with additional experience with elections.