Marc Stieglitz

A catchment-based approach to modeling land surface processes in a general circulation model: 1. Model structure

A new strategy for modeling the land surface component of the climate system is described. The strategy is motivated by an arguable deficiency in most state-of-the-art land surface models, namely, the disproportionately higher emphasis given to the formulation of one-dimensional, vertical physics relative to the treatment of horizontal heterogeneity in surface properties, particularly subgrid soil moisture variability and its effects on runoff generation. The new strategy calls for the partitioning of the continental surface into a mosaic of hydrologic catchments, delineated through analysis of high-resolution surface elevation data. The effective “grid” used for the land surface is therefore not specified by the overlying atmospheric grid. Within each catchment, the variability of soil moisture is related to characteristics of the topography and to three bulk soil moisture variables through a well-established model of catchment processes. This modeled variability allows the partitioning of the catchment into several areas representing distinct hydrological regimes, wherein distinct (regime specific) evaporation and runoff parameterizations are applied. Care is taken to ensure that the deficiencies of the catchment model in regions of little to moderate topography are minimized.

Increasing river discharge in the Eurasian Arctic: Consideration of dams, permafrost thaw, and fires as potential agents of change

[1] Discharge from Eurasian rivers to the Arctic Ocean has increased significantly in recent decades, but the reason for this trend remains unclear. Increased net atmospheric moisture transport from lower to higher latitudes in a warming climate has been identified as one potential mechanism. However, uncertainty associated with estimates of precipitation in the Arctic makes it difficult to confirm whether or not this mechanism is responsible for the change in discharge. Three alternative mechanisms are dam construction and operation, permafrost thaw, and increasing forest fires. Here we evaluate the potential influence of these three mechanisms on changes in discharge from the six largest Eurasian Arctic rivers (Yenisey, Ob’, Lena, Kolyma, Pechora, and Severnaya Dvina) between 1936 and 1999. Comprehensive discharge records made it possible to evaluate the influence of dams directly. Data on permafrost thaw and fires in the watersheds of the Eurasian Arctic rivers are more limited. We therefore use a combination of data and modeling scenarios to explore the potential of these two mechanisms as drivers of increasing discharge. Dams have dramatically altered the seasonality of discharge but are not responsible for increases in annual values. Both thawing of permafrost and increased fires may have contributed to changes in discharge, but neither can be considered a major driver. Cumulative thaw depths required to produce the observed increases in discharge are unreasonable: Even if all of the water from thawing permafrost were converted to discharge, a minimum of 4 m thawed evenly across the combined permafrost area of the six major Eurasian Arctic watersheds would have been required. Similarly, sensitivity analysis shows that the increases in fires that would have been necessary to drive the changes in discharge are unrealistic. Of the potential drivers considered here, increasing northward transport of moisture as a result of global warming remains the most viable explanation for the observed increases in Eurasian Arctic river discharge. INDEX TERMS: 1655 Global Change: Water cycles (1836); 1803 Hydrology: Anthropogenic effects; 1833 Hydrology: Hydroclimatology; 1860 Hydrology: Runoff and streamflow; KEYWORDS: Arctic river discharge, global change Citation: McClelland, J. W., R. M. Holmes, B. J. Peterson, and M. Stieglitz (2004), Increasing river discharge in the Eurasian Arctic: Consideration of dams, permafrost thaw, and fires as potential agents of change, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D18102,

An approach to understanding hydrologic connectivity on the hillslope and the implications for nutrient transport

[1] Hydrologic processes control much of the export of organic matter and nutrients from the land surface. It is the variability of these hydrologic processes that produces variable patterns of nutrient transport in both space and time. In this paper, we explore how hydrologic ‘‘connectivity’’ potentially affects nutrient transport. Hydrologic connectivity is defined as the condition by which disparate regions on the hillslope are linked via subsurface water flow. We present simulations that suggest that for much of the year, water draining through a catchment is spatially isolated. Only rarely, during storm and snowmelt events when antecedent soil moisture is high, do our simulations suggest that mid-slope saturation (or near saturation) occurs and that a catchment connects from ridge to valley. Observations during snowmelt at a small headwater catchment in Idaho are consistent with these model simulations. During early season discharge episodes, in which the mid-slope soil column is not saturated, the electrical conductivity in the stream remains low, reflecting a restricted, local (lower slope) source of stream water and the continued isolation of upper and mid-slope soil water and nutrients from the stream system. Increased streamflow and higher stream water electrical conductivity, presumably reflecting the release of water from the upper reaches of the catchment, are simultaneously observed when the mid-slope becomes sufficiently wet. This study provides preliminary evidence that the seasonal timing of hydrologic connectivity may affect a range of ecological processes, including downslope nutrient transport, C/N cycling, and biological productivity along the toposequence. A better elucidation of hydrologic connectivity will be necessary for understanding local processes as well as material export from land to water at regional and global scales. INDEX TERMS: 1615 Global Change: Biogeochemical processes (4805); 1860 Hydrology: Runoff and streamflow; 1866 Hydrology: Soil moisture; 1899 Hydrology: General or miscellaneous; KEYWORDS: carbon and nitrogen transport, hydrologic connectivity, TOPMODEL

An Efficient Approach to Modeling the Topographic Control of Surface Hydrology for Regional and Global Climate Modeling

Abstract The current generation of land-surface models used in GCMs view the soil column as the fundamental hydrologic unit. While this may be effective in simulating such processes as the evolution of ground temperatures and the growth/ablation of a snowpack at the soil plot scale, it effectively ignores the role topography plays in the development of soil moisture heterogeneity and the subsequent impacts of this soil moisture heterogeneity on watershed evapotranspiration and the partitioning of surface fluxes. This view also ignores the role topography plays in the timing of discharge and the partitioning of discharge into surface runoff and baseflow. In this paper an approach to land-surface modeling is presented that allows us to view the watershed as the fundamental hydrologic unit. The analytic form of TOPMODEL equations are incorporated into the soil column framework and the resulting model is used to predict the saturated fraction of the watershed and baseflow in a consistent fashion. Soil moistur...

Characteristics and Trends of River Discharge into Hudson, James, and Ungava Bays, 1964–2000

Abstract The characteristics and trends of observed river discharge into the Hudson, James, and Ungava Bays (HJUBs) for the period 1964–2000 are investigated. Forty-two rivers with outlets into these bays contribute on average 714 km3 yr−1 [= 0.023 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1)] of freshwater to high-latitude oceans. For the system as a whole, discharge attains an annual peak of 4.2 km3 day−1 on average in mid-June, whereas the minimum of 0.68 km3 day−1 occurs on average during the last week of March. The Nelson River contributes as much as 34% of the daily discharge for the entire system during winter but diminishes in relative importance during spring and summer. Runoff rates per contributing area are highest (lowest) on the eastern (western) shores of the Hudson and James Bays. Linear trend analyses reveal decreasing discharge over the 37-yr period in 36 out of the 42 rivers. By 2000, the total annual freshwater discharge into HJUBs diminished by 96 km3 (−13%) from its value in 1964, equivalent to a reduction...

Drought-Induced Amplification and Epidemic Transmission of West Nile Virus in Southern Florida

Abstract We show that the spatial-temporal variability of human West Nile (WN) cases and the transmission of West Nile virus (WNV) to sentinel chickens are associated with the spatial-temporal variability of drought and wetting in southern Florida. Land surface wetness conditions at 52 sites in 31 counties in southern Florida for 2001–2003 were simulated and compared with the occurrence of human WN cases and the transmission of WNV to sentinel chickens within these counties. Both WNV transmission to sentinel chickens and the occurrence of human WN cases were associated with drought 2–6 mo prior and land surface wetting 0.5–1.5 mo prior. These dynamics are similar to the amplification and transmission patterns found in southern Florida for the closely related St. Louis encephalitis virus. Drought brings avian hosts and vector mosquitoes into close contact and facilitates the epizootic cycling and amplification of the arboviruses within these populations. Southern Florida has not recorded a severe, widespread drought since the introduction of WNV into the state in 2001. Our results indicate that widespread drought in the spring followed by wetting during summer greatly increase the probability of a WNV epidemic in southern Florida.

Using a Dynamic Hydrology Model To Predict Mosquito Abundances in Flood and Swamp Water

We modeled surface wetness at high resolution, using a dynamic hydrology model, to predict flood and swamp water mosquito abundances. Historical meteorologic data, as well as topographic, soil, and vegetation data, were used to model surface wetness and identify potential fresh and swamp water breeding habitats in two northern New Jersey watersheds. Surface wetness was positively associated with the subsequent abundance of the dominant floodwater mosquito species, Aedes vexans, and the swamp water species, Anopheles walkeri. The subsequent abundance of Culex pipiens, a species that breeds in polluted, eutrophic waters, was negatively correlated with local modeled surface wetness. These associations permit real-time monitoring and forecasting of these floodwater and nonfloodwater species at high spatial and temporal resolution. These predictions will enable public health agencies to institute control measures before the mosquitoes emerge as adults, when their role as transmitters of disease comes into play.

The Impact of Detailed Snow Physics on the Simulation of Snow Cover and Subsurface Thermodynamics at Continental Scales

The three-layer snow model of Lynch-Stieglitz is coupled to the global catchment-based land surface model of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project, and the combined models are used to simulate the growth and ablation of snow cover over the North American continent for the period of 1987‐88. The various snow processes included in the three-layer model, such as snow melting and refreezing, dynamic changes in snow density, and snow insulating properties, are shown (through a comparison with the corresponding simulation using a much simpler snow model) to lead to an improved simulation of ground thermodynamics on the continental scale. This comparison indicates that the three-layer model, originally developed and validated at small experimental catchments, does indeed capture the important snow processes that control the growth and the ablation of continental-scale snowpack and its snow insulation capabilities. 1. Background

Recent changes in nitrate and dissolved organic carbon export from the upper Kuparuk River, North Slope, Alaska

[1] Export of nitrate and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from the upper Kuparuk River between the late 1970s and early 2000s was evaluated using long-term ecological research (LTER) data in combination with solute flux and catchment hydrology models. The USGS Load Estimator (LOADEST) was used to calculate June–August export from 1978 forward. LOADEST was then coupled with a catchment-based land surface model (CLSM) to estimate total annual export from 1991 to 2001. Simulations using the LOADEST/CLSM combination indicate that annual nitrate export from the upper Kuparuk River increased by � 5 fold and annual DOC export decreased by about one half from 1991 to 2001. The decrease in DOC export was focused in May and was primarily attributed to a decrease in river discharge. In contrast, increased nitrate export was evident from May to September and was primarily attributed to increased nitrate concentrations. Increased nitrate concentrations are evident across a wide range of discharge conditions, indicating that higher values do not simply reflect lower discharge in recent years but a significant shift to higher concentration per unit discharge. Nitrate concentrations remained elevated after 2001. However, extraordinarily low discharge during June 2004 and June–August 2005 outweighed the influence of higher concentrations in determining export during these years. The mechanism responsible for the recent increase in nitrate concentrations is uncertain but may relate to changes in soils and vegetation associated with regional warming. While changes in nitrate and DOC export from arctic rivers reflect changes in terrestrial ecosystems, they also have significant implications for Arctic Ocean ecosystems.

River export of nutrients and organic matter from the North Slope of Alaska to the Beaufort Sea

While river-borne materials are recognized as important resources supporting coastal ecosystems around the world, estimates of river export from the North Slope of Alaska have been limited by a scarcity of water chemistry and river discharge data. This paper quantifies water, nutrient, and organic matter export from the three largest rivers (Sagavanirktok, Kuparuk, and Colville) that drain Alaskas North Slope and discusses the potential importance of river inputs for biological production in coastal waters of the Alaskan Beaufort Sea. Together these rivers export ∼297,000 metric tons of organic carbon and ∼18,000 metric tons of organic nitrogen each year. Annual fluxes of nitrate-N, ammonium-N, and soluble reactive phosphorus are approximately 1750, 200, and 140 metric tons per year, respectively. Constituent export from Alaskas North Slope is dominated by the Colville River. This is in part due to its larger size, but also because constituent yields are greater in the Colville watershed. River-supplied nitrogen may be more important to productivity along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast than previously thought. However, given the dominance of organic nitrogen export, the potential role of river-supplied nitrogen in support of primary production depends strongly on remineralization mechanisms. Although rivers draining the North Slope of Alaska make only a small contribution to overall river export from the pan-arctic watershed, comparisons with major arctic rivers reveal unique regional characteristics as well as remarkable similarities among different regions and scales. Such information is crucial for development of robust river export models that represent the arctic system as a whole.