Marcantonio Caltabiano

Changing family formation in Nepal: Marriage cohabitation and first sexual intercourse.

CONTEXT In Nepal, marriage occurs at a relatively young age and arranged weddings are widespread. However, recent changes in the family formation process and the timing of first sexual intercourse suggest that a transformation may be under way. METHODS Data on marriage, cohabitation and first sexual intercourse from the 2001 Nepalese Demographic and Health Survey were used to describe the family formation process. The sequence of these events and the intervals between them were explored for currently married men and women. Hazard models were used to identify factors associated with behavioral changes over time. RESULTS The average age at marriage among women married before age 20 increased from 13.7 years for those born in 1952-1956 to 15.6 years for those born in 1977-1981, while remaining relatively stable for men married before age 25 (17.3 years for the 1942-1946 birth cohort to 17.7 for the 1972-1976 birth cohort). After individual and couple characteristics were controlled for, younger age at interview was associated with greater odds of simultaneous marriage and cohabitation for both genders (odds ratios, 1.3-1.7). Younger age at interview was also associated with premarital sex among men--those aged 39 or younger had significantly higher risks than older men of having had premarital sex, with odds ratios rising from 1.6 among those aged 35-39 to 1.8 among those aged 15-24. CONCLUSIONS It is important not only to promote education as a means of delaying marriage and childbearing, but also to implement programs and services that prevent reproductive health problems for young married couples.

Where, in which way and to what extent can Italian fertility grow in the next 15 years?

Objective: The study aims at analysing the recent trends in fertility in Italy and at discussing its possible future trends. Methods: We analyse the evolution of demographic indicators, such as the total fertility rate and the maternal age in Italy, in the last 30 years and we look for the most relevant determinants of birth postponement. We also discuss the most recent fertility forecasts for Italy and their implications. Results: In Italy, the total fertility rate has declined sharply in the last 30 years, reaching a level among the lowest in the world. However, in the last decade a reversal in this trend has been recorded. We here show that, net of the effect of immigration, this reversal is mainly due to a recovery of postponed births after age 30. Nevertheless, this recovery is not sufficient to raise the total fertility rates up to the replacement level. The reasons for this insufficient recovery are related both to the marked delay in transition to adulthood and to the difficult reconciliation of work and maternity for Italian women, both hampering the fertility rates. Conclusions: The fertility decline in Italy has finally stopped in the last years even if the maternal age is continuously increasing. However, without ad hoc family policies the fertility recovery will be weak and limited to those areas of the country with a better welfare system and economically more developed.

A Comparison of Survey Techniques on Sensitive Sexual Behavior in Italy

This article compares two national surveys carried out through the most commonly used procedures in Italy: CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews) and SAQ-FI (self-answered questionnaires following interviews). Both surveys ask two identical questions concerning sensitive sexual behavior: early age at first intercourse and same-sex attraction. The SAQ-FI survey had both unit non-response and item non-response rates much lower than the CATI survey. Moreover, in the CATI survey, the groups with highest item non-response rates were also the groups with the lowest proportions of early intercourse and homosexual attraction. In addition, a differential analysis of the respondents produced diverse results for the two surveys. This is especially true of results by gender for same-sex attraction: Such behavior is more common among men (3.1%) than women (2.9%), according to the CATI survey, whereas the opposite is true of the SAQ-FI survey (6.1% of men vs. 7.7% women). In Italy at the beginning of the 21st century, CATI surveys reveal a lower level of early intercourse and same-sex attraction than SAQ-FI surveys. This article argues that the CATI survey underestimates the true level of these sensitive sexual behaviors in the Italian population.

The dejuvenation of the Italian population

Abstract In recent decades, a process of structural reduction of the weight of new generations in overall population (dejuvenation) has been observed. In Italy, this process started in the 1970s and accelerated in the 1990s. We present here its main consequences for Italian society and economy. The number of Italian young people (aged 0–29) was reduced from 24.5 million in 1951 (51.6% of the population) to 17.5 million in 2016 (28.8%). What is more, many young Italians are becoming a wasted resource and a social cost, facing high rates of unemployment, long economic dependence on the family of origin, renunciation of full achievement of their life plans, distrust of institutions, low social and political participation, and increasing emigration flow. We analyze, using multivariate models, the data of the Rapporto Giovani survey held by the Toniolo Institute in 2015. Our main finding is that generational disadvantages not only hamper economic growth but, in a familistic context, also exacerbate social inequalities.