Marcel Bilger

Implications of a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax when substitutions to non-beverage items are considered

Using the 2006 Homescan panel, we estimate the changes in energy, fat and sodium purchases resulting from a tax that increases the price of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) by 20% and the effect of such a tax on body weight. In addition to substitutions that may arise with other beverages, we account for substitutions between SSBs and 12 major food categories. Our main findings are that the tax would result in a decrease in store-bought energy of 24.3kcal per day per person, which would translate into an average weight loss of 1.6 pounds during the first year and a cumulated weight loss of 2.9 pounds in the long run. We do not find evidence of substitution to sugary foods and show that complementary foods could contribute to decreasing energy purchases. Despite their significantly lower price elasticity, the tax has a similar effect on calories for the largest purchasers of SSBs.

Effectiveness of activity trackers with and without incentives to increase physical activity (TRIPPA): a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Despite the increasing popularity of activity trackers, little evidence exists that they can improve health outcomes. We aimed to investigate whether use of activity trackers, alone or in combination with cash incentives or charitable donations, lead to increases in physical activity and improvements in health outcomes. METHODS In this randomised controlled trial, employees from 13 organisations in Singapore were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) with a computer generated assignment schedule to control (no tracker or incentives), Fitbit Zip activity tracker, tracker plus charity incentives, or tracker plus cash incentives. Participants had to be English speaking, full-time employees, aged 21-65 years, able to walk at least ten steps continuously, and non-pregnant. Incentives were tied to weekly steps, and the primary outcome, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) bout min per week, was measured via a sealed accelerometer and assessed on an intention-to-treat basis at 6 months (end of intervention) and 12 months (after a 6 month post-intervention follow-up period). Other outcome measures included steps, participants meeting 70 000 steps per week target, and health-related outcomes including weight, blood pressure, and quality-of-life measures. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01855776. FINDINGS Between June 13, 2013, and Aug 15, 2014, 800 participants were recruited and randomly assigned to the control (n=201), Fitbit (n=203), charity (n=199), and cash (n=197) groups. At 6 months, compared with control, the cash group logged an additional 29 MVPA bout min per week (95% CI 10-47; p=0·0024) and the charity group an additional 21 MVPA bout min per week (2-39; p=0·0310); the difference between Fitbit only and control was not significant (16 MVPA bout min per week [-2 to 35; p=0·0854]). Increases in MVPA bout min per week in the cash and charity groups were not significantly greater than that of the Fitbit group. At 12 months, the Fitbit group logged an additional 37 MVPA bout min per week (19-56; p=0·0001) and the charity group an additional 32 MVPA bout min per week (12-51; p=0·0013) compared with control; the difference between cash and control was not significant (15 MVPA bout min per week [-5 to 34; p=0·1363]). A decrease in physical activity of -23 MVPA bout min per week (95% CI -42 to -4; p=0·0184) was seen when comparing the cash group with the Fitbit group. There were no improvements in any health outcomes (weight, blood pressure, etc) at either assessment. INTERPRETATION The cash incentive was most effective at increasing MVPA bout min per week at 6 months, but this effect was not sustained 6 months after the incentives were discontinued. At 12 months, the activity tracker with or without charity incentives were effective at stemming the reduction in MVPA bout min per week seen in the control group, but we identified no evidence of improvements in health outcomes, either with or without incentives, calling into question the value of these devices for health promotion. Although other incentive strategies might generate greater increases in step activity and improvements in health outcomes, incentives would probably need to be in place long term to avoid any potential decrease in physical activity resulting from discontinuation. FUNDING Ministry of Health, Singapore.

Non-communicable diseases and injuries in Pakistan: strategic priorities

Non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases, cancers, respiratory diseases, diabetes, and mental disorders, and injuries have become the major causes of morbidity and mortality in Pakistan. Tobacco use and hypertension are the leading attributable risk factors for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and respiratory diseases. Pakistan has the sixth highest number of people in the world with diabetes; every fourth adult is overweight or obese; cigarettes are cheap; antismoking and road safety laws are poorly enforced; and a mixed public-private health-care system provides suboptimum care. Furthermore, almost three decades of exposure to sociopolitical instability, economic uncertainty, violence, regional conflict, and dislocation have contributed to a high prevalence of mental health disorders. Projection models based on the Global Burden of Disease 2010 data suggest that there will be about 3·87 million premature deaths by 2025 from cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and chronic respiratory diseases in people aged 30-69 years in Pakistan, with serious economic consequences. Modelling of risk factor reductions also indicate that Pakistan could achieve at least a 20% reduction in the number of these deaths by 2025 by targeting of the major risk factors. We call for policy and legislative changes, and health-system interventions to target readily preventable non-communicable diseases in Pakistan.

Comparison of preferences for end-of-life care among patients with advanced cancer and their caregivers: A discrete choice experiment

Background: Patients with advanced cancer often have to make difficult decisions, such as how much to spend on moderately life-extending treatments. This and other end-of-life decisions are also influenced by their informal caregivers. Understanding the relative value that patients and their caregivers place on various aspects of end-of-life care can help clinicians tailor treatments to best meet the preferences of their patients. Aim: To quantify willingness to pay of patients with advanced cancer and their caregivers to extend the patients’ life by 1 year and to compare this result to their willingness to pay for other end-of-life improvements. Design: Cross-sectional survey using a discrete choice experiment. Participants: A total of 211 patients with stage IV cancer and their informal caregivers. Results: The willingness to pay of patients to extend their life by 1 year (S

Effects of financial incentives on motivating physical activity among older adults: results from a discrete choice experiment

18,570; 95% confidence interval: S

Preferences for end-of-life care among community-dwelling older adults and patients with advanced cancer: A discrete choice experiment

6687–S

The effect of weight loss on health, productivity, and medical expenditures among overweight employees.

30,542) was not statistically different from their willingness to pay to avoid severe pain (S

Measuring overfitting in nonlinear models: a new method and an application to health expenditures.

22,199; S

Consumption Of Specific Foods And Beverages And Excess Weight Gain Among Children And Adolescents

11,648–S

Design and baseline characteristics of participants in the TRial of Economic Incentives to Promote Physical Activity (TRIPPA): A randomized controlled trial of a six month pedometer program with financial incentives

32,450), to die at home (S