Marcello Silvestri

Building Artificial Economies: From Aggregate Data to Experimental Microstructure. A Methodological Survey

This paper suggests a methodological appraisal of the main improvements witnessed by the methodology based on the interplay between Experimental Economics (EE) and Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE) in the last 5–6 years. EE and ACE proved to be “natural allies” in that they complement each other: EE helps ACE in dealing with its “degree of freedom” problem and ACE helps EE in controlling and providing benchmarks for experimental subjects’ behavior. The paper discusses the role Evolutionary Computation plays in this bidirectional relationship.

Towards a Multi-Avatar Macroeconomic System

In this paper we provide a prototype Multi-Agent macroeconomic system where artificial agents’ behavioral rules are calibrated using human behaviors. The artificial representation of humans, i.e. “molded” avatars, derives from a two steps process. The first step consists in performing laboratory experiments in order to gather microeconomic data. The second relies on the use of data mining heuristic techniques on the experimental data which allow for the identification of the behavioral models that better approximate humans’ behaviors. The implementation of these techniques, which we call microeconomic calibration, leads to the identification of heterogeneous agents. We maintain that the Multi-Avatar systems which arise from the heterogeneous microeconomic calibrated agents give the possibility to improve the existing Agent-based models. The proposed approach will generate consequently more reliable policies evaluation tools. The model discussed in the paper is motivated by the investigation on the role of entrepreneurs’ financial decisions over the business cycle. This topic was addressed especially by Hyman Minsky since the Fifties and recently gained a new momentum in the scientific community after the onset of the financial crisis.

Modeling Firms Financial Behavior in an Evolving Economy by Using Artificial Intelligence

In this paper we investigate the dynamic behavior of firms capital structure. Differently from a number of existing studies, our aim is to tackle the issue by combining two approaches: experimental and computational economics. The main goal of this paper is in fact to build an artificial agent whose behavior mimics that of experimental agents. The paper shows how the heuristic approach could provide for a valid alternative micro-foundation for the financial decisions of entrepreneurs.

The Empirical Microstructure of Agent-Based Models: Recent Trends in the Interplay between ACE and Experimental Economics

In this paper we discuss recent trends on the interplay between Experimental Economics and Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE). Experimental Economics proved useful in providing insights on human subjects’ decision-making as well as microeconomic data to estimate artificial agents. Agent-based Computations Economics allows for observing the aggregate outcome of artificial agents’ interactions and for replicating experiments at a larger scale.

The teaching evaluation model: A web application framework

The paper proposes a model for the continuous improvement of academic teaching aimed at delivering a programmed excellent learning in perspective. The proposed Teaching Evaluation Model (TEM) is a dynamic and open system based on the Deming Cycle (PLAN-DO-CHECK-ACT). The objective pursued by the model is to match the expected learning with real learning. The results of this work are intended to highlight the field application of the TEM approach. Specifically, the application consists of a web-based tool conceived and designed to allow teachers and institutions to build a continuous improvement of the teaching and learning processes. By enhancing the interior design education and hence the profession itself, the model reveals that technology-enhanced assessment may deliver tangible benefits for learners, teachers and institutions.

Decision Economics, In Commemoration of the Birth Centennial of Herbert A. Simon 1916-2016 (Nobel Prize in Economics 1978)

The special session Decision Economics (DECON) 2016 is a scientific forum by which to share ideas, projects, researches results, models and experiences associated with the complexity of behavioral decision processes aiming at explaining socio-economic phenomena. DECON 2016 held in the University of Seville, Spain, as part of the 13th International Conference on Distributed Computing and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI) 2016. In the tradition of Herbert A. Simon s interdisciplinary legacy, this book dedicates itself to the interdisciplinary study of decision-making in the recognition that relevant decision-making takes place in a range of critical subject areas and research fields, including economics, finance, information systems, small and international business, management, operations, and production. Decision-making issues are of crucial importance in economics. Not surprisingly, the study of decision-making has received a growing empirical research efforts in the applied economic literature over the last sixty years. The recognition of the oversimplification and limitations of subjective expected utility theory has produced an extraordinary volume of empirical research aimed at discovering how economic agents cope with complexity. In the centenary of his birth, the international scientific community acknowledges Herbert A. Simon s research endeavors aimed to understand the processes involved in economic decision-making and their implications for the advancement of economic studies. Within the field of decision-making, Simon s rejection of standard decision-making models of neoclassical economics inspired social scientists worldwide to develop research programs in order to study decision-making empirically. The main achievements regarded decision-making for individual, firms, markets, governments and institution. There are many scholars in the world that claim that Herbert A. Simon has precipitated something like a revolution in microeconomics focused on the concept of decision-making. Among these scholars are the Editors of this book who believe that very few scientists produce seminal work in more than one field: Herbert A. Simon was one of them, that caliber of genius

Shaping an Inductive Macroeconomics

In this paper I discuss how to develop an inductive model-building approach which, in my opinion, could give novel perspectives to macroeconomic investigation. For this end I explain reasons and ways to cope with this task. My analysis refers to three different level of thinking under which I try to develop a line of enquiry. Firstly, I focus on Hyman Minsky’s economic thought which offers a novel inductive argument. Secondly, I discuss how this inductive argument fosters a different use of the experimental method in Economics. Concluding, I argue how agent based modeling could benefit from a Minskyan vision of Economics supported by the experimental method.

Avatar-based Macroeconomics

In this paper we present a new methodological approach based on the interplay between Experimental Economics and Agent-based Economics. Advances in the design and implementation of individual autonomous economic agents are presented. The methodology is organized in three steps. The first step focuses on agents. We use an inductive rather than a deductive approach: by means of the experimental method we observe agents’ behaviors. The second step is the behavioral rules’ building process that allows us to study how to estimate and structure artificial agents. In the third step, the set of previously induced behavioral rules are used to build artificial agents, i.e. “molded” avatars, which operate in the “archetype” macroeconomic system. The resulting multi-agent system serves as the macroeconomic environment for our simulations and economic

Towards a Knowledge-Driven Application Supporting Entrepreneurs Decision-Making in an Uncertain Environment

In this paper we present an interactive web-based application which could allow to explore entrepreneurial management. The main topic of the investigation is the analysis of entrepreneurship as a judgmental decision making under uncertainty. At this stage we outline the theoretical background which is behind the software and its basic functioning. We maintain that the fundamental research, which underpins our model, could stimulate new way of thinking to the development of a knowledge-driven tool in supporting risk-taking propensity.

Learning to Be an Entrepreneur: Evidence from a Technology Enhanced Learning Tool

In this paper we present a web-based software model in which the user manages a virtual enterprise. By using the software the user experiences a number of basic economic principles such as the leverage effect, the effect of depreciation on the firm return rate and the key role of the equity base in a framework characterized by risk and uncertainty. The model has been used in an undergraduate class at the Faculty of Management Sciences at the University of Chieti - Pescara. Students have acknowledged the usefulness of this tool in order to assess the theoretical principles learned during the lectures.We then asked a different subject pool, i.e. entrepreneurs, to manage the same GUI. A comparative analysis of the results obtained in the different sessions showed that our software is a good and effective tool for learning purposes.