Marcelo D. Nosetto

Protecting climate with forests

Policies for climate mitigation on land rarely acknowledge biophysical factors, such as reflectivity, evaporation, and surface roughness. Yet such factors can alter temperatures much more than carbon sequestration does, and often in a conflicting way. We outline a framework for examining biophysical factors in mitigation policies and provide some best-practice recommendations based on that framework. Tropical projects—avoided deforestation, forest restoration, and afforestation—provide the greatest climate value, because carbon storage and biophysics align to cool the Earth. In contrast, the climate benefits of carbon storage are often counteracted in boreal and other snow-covered regions, where darker trees trap more heat than snow does. Managers can increase the climate benefit of some forest projects by using more reflective and deciduous species and through urban forestry projects that reduce energy use. Ignoring biophysical interactions could result in millions of dollars being invested in some mitigation projects that provide little climate benefit or, worse, are counter-productive.

Water subsidies from mountains to deserts: their role in sustaining groundwater-fed oases in a sandy landscape

In arid regions throughout the world, shallow phreatic aquifers feed natural oases of much higher productivity than would be expected solely from local rainfall. In South America, the presence of well-developed Prosopis flexuosa woodlands in the Monte Desert region east of the Andes has puzzled scientists for decades. Today these woodlands provide crucial subsistence to local populations, including descendants of the indigenous Huarpes. We explore the vulnerability and importance of phreatic groundwater for the productivity of the region, comparing the contributions of local rainfall to that of remote mountain recharge that is increasingly being diverted for irrigated agriculture before it reaches the desert. We combined deep soil coring, plant measurements, direct water-table observations, and stable-isotopic analyses (2H and 18O) of meteoric, surface, and ground waters at three study sites across the region, comparing woodland stands, bare dunes, and surrounding shrublands. The isotopic composition of phreatic groundwaters (delta2H: -137 per thousand +/- 5 per thousand) closely matched the signature of water brought to the region by the Mendoza River (-137 per thousand +/- 6 per thousand), suggestin that mountain-river infiltration rather than in situ rainfall deep drainage (-39 per thousand +/- 19 per thousand) was the dominant mechanism of recharge. Similarly, chloride mass balances determined from deep soil profiles (> 6 m) suggested very low recharge rates. Vegetation in woodland ecosystems, where significant groundwater discharge losses, likely >100 mm/yr occurred, relied on regionally derived groundwater located from 6.5 to 9.5 m underground. At these locations, daily water-table fluctuations of 10 mm, and stable-isotopic measurements of plant water, indicated groundwater uptake rates of 200-300 mm/yr. Regional scaling suggests that groundwater evapotranspiration reaches 18-42 mm/yr across the landscape, accounting for 7 17% of the Mendoza River flow regionally. Our study highlights the reliance of ecosystem productivity in natural oases on Andean snowmelt, which is increasingly being diverted to one of the largest irrigated regions of the continent. Understanding the ecohydrological coupling of mountain and desert ecosystems here and elsewhere should help managers balance production agriculture and conservation of unique woodland ecosystems and the rural communities that rely on them.

Long-term Satellite NDVI Data Sets: Evaluating Their Ability to Detect Ecosystem Functional Changes in South America

In the last decades, South American ecosystems underwent important functional modifications due to climate alterations and direct human intervention on land use and land cover. Among remotely sensed data sets, NOAA-AVHRR “Normalized Difference Vegetation Index” (NDVI) represents one of the most powerful tools to evaluate these changes thanks to their extended temporal coverage. In this paper we explored the possibilities and limitations of three commonly used NOAA-AVHRR NDVI series (PAL, GIMMS and FASIR) to detect ecosystem functional changes in the South American continent. We performed pixel-based linear regressions for four NDVI variables (average annual, maximum annual, minimum annual and intra-annual coefficient of variation) for the 1982-1999 period and (1) analyzed the convergences and divergences of significant multi-annual trends identified across all series, (2) explored the degree of aggregation of the trends using the O-ring statistic, and (3) evaluated observed trends using independent information on ecosystem functional changes in five focal regions. Several differences arose in terms of the patterns of change (the sign, localization and total number of pixels with changes). FASIR presented the highest proportion of changing pixels (32.7%) and GIMMS the lowest (16.2%). PAL and FASIR data sets showed the highest agreement, with a convergence of detected trends on 71.2% of the pixels. Even though positive and negative changes showed substantial spatial aggregation, important differences in the scale of aggregation emerged among the series, with GIMMS showing the smaller scale (≤11 pixels). The independent evaluations suggest higher accuracy in the detection of ecosystem changes among PAL and FASIR series than with GIMMS, as they detected trends that match expected shifts. In fact, this last series eliminated most of the long term patterns over the continent. For example, in the “Eastern Paraguay” and “Uruguay River margins” focal regions, the extensive changes due to land use and land cover change expansion were detected by PAL and FASIR, but completely ignored by GIMMS. Although the technical explanation of the differences remains unclear and needs further exploration, we found that the evaluation of this type of remote sensing tools should not only be focused at the level of assumptions (i.e. physical or mathematical aspects of image processing), but also at the level of results (i.e. contrasting observed patterns with independent proofs of change). We finally present the online collaborative initiative “Land ecosystem change utility for South America”, which facilitates this type of evaluations and helps to identify the most important functional changes of the continent.

Regional patterns and controls of ecosystem salinization with grassland afforestation along a rainfall gradient

[1] Vegetation change affects water fluxes and influences the direction and intensity of salt exchange between ecosystems and groundwater. In some conditions it can also lead to an intense accumulation of salts in soils and aquifers, as has been documented for the conversion of native grassland to tree plantations in the plains of Argentina, Hungary and Russia. In this paper we present a hierarchical framework to predict salt accumulation following vegetation change that is based on climatic, hydrogeological and biological factors. We evaluated this spatially explicit framework in temperate South America using a network of 32 pairs of adjacent plantation and grassland stands studied with detailed field measurements and remotely sensed imagery from MODIS. Our sites cover a broad precipitation gradient (770 to 1500 mm a � 1 ) and are underlain by shallow water tables (<2.5 m of depth). At the regional scale, geoelectric surveying revealed that the salinization of plantation soils depended strongly on climate, occurring only where the annual water balance (mean precipitation-Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration) was <100 mm a �1 (p < 0.0001, n = 24). At the local scale, we observed that groundwater salinities observed under � 50-year old plantations of different species were associated with their tolerance to salinity (p < 0.001, n = 10). Salinization occurred rapidly where rainfall was insufficient to meet the water requirements of tree plantations and where groundwater use compensated for this deficit, driving salt accumulating in the ecosystem. A general understanding of the vegetation-groundwater relationship will help predict and manage the negative and positive consequences of groundwater use from stand to regional levels of analysis.

What does it take to flood the Pampas?: Lessons from a decade of strong hydrological fluctuations

While most landscapes respond to extreme rainfalls with increased surface water outflows, very flat and poorly drained ones have little capacity to do this and their most common responses include (i) increased water storage leading to rising water tables and floods, (ii) increased evaporative water losses, and, after reaching high levels of storage, (iii) increased liquid water outflows. The relative importance of these pathways was explored in the extensive plains of the Argentine Pampas, where two significant flood episodes (denoted FE1 and FE2) occurred in 2000–2003 and 2012–2013. In two of the most flood-prone areas (Western and Lower Pampa, 60,000 km2 each), surface water cover reached 31 and 19% during FE1 in each subregion, while FE2 covered up to 22 and 10%, respectively. From the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the flood events, we distinguished slow floods lasting several years when the water table is brought to the surface following sustained precipitation excesses in groundwater-connected systems (Western Pampa), and “fast” floods triggered by surface water accumulation over the course of weeks to months, typical of poor surface-groundwater connectivity (Lower Pampa) or when exceptionally strong rainfalls overwhelm infiltration capacity. Because of these different hydrological responses, precipitation and evapotranspiration were strongly linked in the Lower Pampa only, while the connection between water fluxes and storage was limited to the Western Pampa. In both regions, evapotranspirative losses were strongly linked to flooded conditions as a regulatory feedback, while liquid water outflows remained negligible.

Is aridity restricting deforestation and land uses in the South American Dry Chaco

ABSTRACT In this paper, we explored how aridity influences the regional deforestation and land-use patterns (i.e. crops/pastures) in South American Dry Chaco. To do this, we contrasted land use during last decade (2001–2012) with a spatially explicit aridity index, which we complemented with a crop water balance model. Land-use classifications were performed by considering the temporal variability of NDVI from MODIS satellites, showing that 40 and 60% of deforested land was assigned to crops and pastures, respectively. Results indicate that although the regional deforestation pattern was not associated with the aridity gradient, with drier areas similarly deforested as wetter areas, contrasting differences were observed in the use of this land, with crops mostly located (90%) in wetter areas and pastures evenly distributed across the whole aridity gradient. This research highlighted the strong effect of water limitations on the land-use option after deforestation and may help to set the basis for future land-use planning policies.

Tree Plantation in South America and The Water Cycle: Impacts and Emergent Opportunities

South American tree plantations expand at a rate of 5,000 km2/year favored by increasingly globalized markets and local economic conditions. The main hydrological impacts of these plantations involve shifts in (a) the partition of precipitation inputs between vapour vs. liquid fluxes (associated to transpiration and canopy interception shifts) and (b) the partition of liquid fluxes between run-off and fast flow vs. deep drainage and base flow (associated to infiltration and surface water routing shifts). In sloped terrains global stream flow measurements in paired watersheds indicate declining water yields (40% less on average) under plantations vs. native vegetation. These effects are stronger under drier climates, where host vegetation is herbaceous, and where planted trees are eucalypts. In flat landscapes with native grassland vegetation, tree plantations switch the water balance from positive (net recharge) to negative (net discharge) triggering local salinization. Contrastingly, where native vegetation has been a woodland tree plantation can remediate the undesirable recharge and water table rise/salinization problems brought by agriculture. In degraded rolling (sub)tropical landscapes with intense rainfall inputs and high run-off, tree plantations can increase infiltration rates, reducing erosion, stabilizing flow, but cutting total water yield. As a result of these shifts, erosion can be reduced and the stability and quality of water provision improved, yet these benefits can be erased by large scale clear cutting practices. Context (climate, current vegetation and topography/geology) and design (species, densities, harvesting methods, and scale/pattern) can decide the magnitude and sign of tree plantations effects and need to be carefully considered to get the best ecological outcome of afforestation in the continent.

Litter is more effective than forest canopy reducing soil evaporation in Dry Chaco rangelands

Soil evaporation is a dominant water flux of flat dry ecosystems, reducing available water for plant transpiration. Vegetation plays a key role at controlling evaporation, especially by altering soil surface micro-meteorological conditions. Here we explored the vegetation cover effect on soil evaporation, differentiating the effects of canopy cover (shadow) and of surface cover (litter) in forests and pastures of Dry Chaco rangelands (San Luis, Argentina). We measured daily soil evaporation using irrigated micro-lysimeters installed at regularly spaced (2 m) patches along transects in native dry forests (n=54 patches) and pastures (n=27 patches). In each forest patch we established a pair of micro-lysimeters, one with litter (3 cm depth, representing high litter cover conditions of the site) and one with bare soil, while in pastures only one micro-lysimeter with bare soil was installed at each patch (representing the typical no litter cover conditions of pastures of the study site). We found that, when soil water was not limiting, litter cover had the strongest effect in reducing evaporation rates, with a 4- and 6.4-fold reduction respect to bare soil micro-lysimeters in the forest and pasture, respectively. Evaporation decreased sharply with declining incident radiation fraction in bare soil micro-lysimeters from 5.6 mm/day (full radiation) to 3.5 mm/day (full canopy shadow) (R2=0.50). Litter-covered micro-lysimeters showed lower and more stable evaporation rates, decreasing only from 1.35 to 1.03 mm/day under the same radiation conditions (R2=0.10). In accordance with J.T. Ritchie evaporation model, we identified a threshold of ~10.5 mm of cumulative evaporation at which evaporation switched from energy to water limitation in all situations, as revealed by declining evaporation rates and raising surface temperatures. Under typical wet-summer conditions, the pasture, the forest with bare soil and the forest with litter would need on average a drying cycle of 1.5, 2.5 and 9.5 days, respectively, to reach that threshold. Simulations showed that, considering the distribution of rainfall events at our study site, litter would maintain evaporation in the energy-limited mode most of the time (68.8% of summer days), strongly favoring transpiration. The ecohydrological key role of soil litter controlling evaporation highlights the importance of an accurate assessment of management practices controlling the evaporation/transpiration partition in dry ecosystems.

Ecohydrological transformation in the Dry Chaco and the risk of dryland salinity: Following Australia's footsteps?

During the last century the massive conversion of Australian dry forests to crops and pastures triggered the massive soil and groundwater degradation process known as dryland salinity. Currently, South American Chacos dry forests are undergoing a similar transformation, leading global deforestation rates. The goal of this study was to review existing ecohydrological information about natural and cultivated systems in the Chaco to assess the dryland salinity risks. We review deep soil water, salt stocks and groundwater recharge from agriculture/native dry forests stands located in a precipitation range of 450-1100 mm. We complement this with water table level records and geoelectric profiles together with personal observations. We use data from 15 Australian studies for comparison. Strong salt leaching, especially after 20 years of forest clearance, indicates the onset of deep drainage following forest conversion to agriculture in the Dry Chaco. Water stocks were more than double in the cleared stands compared to their dry forest pairs and recharge rates were up to two order magnitude higher in agricultural areas. While in the Dry Chaco lower atmospheric salt deposition, younger sediments, and relatively high water-consuming agricultural systems, attenuate salinization risks compared to Australia, the very flat topography and related shallow water table levels of the South American region could make groundwater recharge and salt mobilization processes more widespread and difficult to manage. The lack of awareness among the general public, farmers and decision makers about this issue amplifies the problem, making land management plans for the Argentine dry forest territories essential.

A linked modelling framework to explore interactions among climate, soil water, and land use decisions in the Argentine Pampas

Abstract In flat environments, groundwater is relatively shallow, tightly associated with surface water and climate, and can have either positive and negative impacts on natural and human systems depending on its depth. A linked modelling and analysis framework that seeks to capture linkages across multiple scales at the climate/water/crop nexus in the Argentine Pampas is presented. This region shows a strong coupling between climate, soil water, and land use due to its extremely flat topography and poorly developed drainage networks. The work describes the components of the framework and, subsequently, presents results from simulations performed with the twin goals of (i) validating the framework as a whole and (ii) demonstrating its usefulness to explore interesting contexts such as unexperienced climate scenarios (wet/dry periods), hypothetical policies (e.g., differential grains export taxes), and adoption of non-structural technologies (e.g., cover crops) to manage water table depth.