Marcelo E. Seluchi

Tropical–midlatitude exchange of air masses during summer and winter in South America: climatic aspects and examples of intense events

Meridional transport of air masses between the tropics and midlatitudes in South America are the most intense in the entire Southern Hemisphere, mainly due to the presence of the Andes. The incursions of tropical air into midlatitudes occur on the eastern side of the Andes in two preferred regions. The first is located in the tropical latitudes, close to the mountains between 20° and 30°S, and the second is a function of the position of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). All year long, the two preferred regions maintain their behaviour, with only small variations of their position or relative importance in different seasons of the year. The variability of the meridional transport is larger on the eastern side of the Andes, due to the presence of the mountain barrier, which favours baroclinic activity and allows an active exchange of air masses in both senses, especially during winter. The importance of the air mass transport is evident in the precipitation and surface temperature fields. During summertime, the Chaco Low (25°S and 65°W) intensifies due to the positive net radiation, favouring the transport of tropical air masses towards the south and the presence of strong convective activity, which is fed by moisture from tropical regions. During winter, the penetration of tropical air towards higher latitudes is more sporadic. The displacement of midlatitude air towards tropical latitudes occurs on both sides of the Andes. On the western side, the air associated with the subtropical Pacific anticyclone flows northward channelled by the Andes. On the eastern side, incursions of polar air towards lower latitudes are linked to cold fronts whose trajectory and movement is also favoured by the presence of the Andes. In particular, during wintertime the cold fronts are more intense and faster, and sometimes even reach tropical and equatorial latitudes which produces freezes in subtropical regions, such as the coffee growing areas in southeastern Brazil. In contrast, the incursions of cold air are notably weaker and less frequent in summer, and during these events the active cold fronts move northwards merging with the SACZ, which becomes more intense. Copyright

The Northwestern Argentinean Low: A Study of Two Typical Events

Abstract A low pressure system [known as the northwestern Argentinean low (NAL)] is commonly observed over northwestern Argentina near the Andean slopes. This study describes two NAL episodes for summer and winter, with emphasis on the characterization of their three-dimensional structure and temporal variability. With the aid of a high-resolution regional model [Eta/Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos (CPTEC)], the main mechanisms involved in the NAL life cycle were studied in order to examine how the thermal topographical processes influenced the system behavior. Surface pressure changes in the NAL are mostly dominated by the 600–900-hPa thickness variability, suggesting its thermal character. Based on this result, the temperature tendency equation has been used to quantify all the contributions to thermal changes. The summer NAL has a significant diurnal cycle that has been dominated by surface warming. This single mechanism can explain the low pressure system formation by itself, suggesti...

Analysis of Three Situations of the Foehn Effect over the Andes (Zonda Wind) Using the Eta–CPTEC Regional Model

Abstract The zonda is a warm and extremely dry wind that occurs east of the Andes Cordillera in the extratropical latitudes of South America. Its orographic origin is similar to the foehn that blows in Germany and Austria and the chinook that occurs east of the Rocky Mountains. Three typical zonda events of different categories (surface and elevated) are described, through observational and Eta–Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos (CPTEC) model output. During the events the temperature rises sharply by 10°–15°C and the dewpoint temperature drops by 15°–20°C in an interval of a few hours. The sustained wind strength at the surface increases to 30 kt, with gusts of more than 40 kt. The episodes generally start around midday and last for about 10 h. The Eta–CPTEC model was able to forecast several aspects of the three analyzed zonda cases, such as wind strength, temperature, and humidity changes, and their starting and ending times. Some relationships between the intensity of the windward static ...

Influence of the Subtropical Andes on Baroclinic Disturbances: A Cold Front Case Study

Abstract The Andes Cordillera produces a significant disruption to the structure and evolution of the weather systems that cross South America. In particular, cold fronts tend to be “channeled” to the north immediately to the east of the Andes, fostering the advance of cold air incursions (cold surges) well into subtropical, and sometimes tropical, latitudes. In contrast, active cold fronts hardly reach subtropical latitudes along the western side of the Andes (Pacific sea border). Instead, as a cold front moves equatorward along the east side of the Andes, a marked low-level warming tends to appear along the west side of the subtropical Andes, leading to the formation of a mesoscale coastal low (or trough) in this region. To further understand the processes that lead to a contrasting evolution of the cold front at each side of the Andes, a typical frontal passage is studied in this work, using synoptic observations and a regional model [Eta–Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos (CPTEC)] simula...

Relationship between ENSO cycles and frost events within the Pampa Húmeda region

The objective of the present paper is to analyse the possible impact of ENSO events on the spatial and the temporal distribution of frost occurrences, within the central region of Argentina. Therefore, the minimum temperature series have been studied for 41 meteorological stations within the Pampa Humeda region and, for a period of 30 years from 1961 to 1990, exploring possible relationships with El Nino (EN)/La Nina (LN) events and the changes in the Southern Oscillation. It can be concluded that part of the frost frequency variability within this region is explained by the ENSO cycle. Results indicate that, for at least 1 of the 2 years in which the EN event takes place, the mean number of frost occurrences drops below the climatological value. The low phase of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) also coincides with those years for which the number of frost events remained below the total annual mean in all cases, with the year 1965 as an exception. Conversely, during the high phase of the SOI, this number was above the total annual mean for four of the six classified cases. In the particular case of seasonal frost occurrence, it is related to the warm event development state, exhibiting a greater impact during the autumn and winter months, for which the cold event also seems to have influence. Copyright

Land-atmosphere interactions during a northwestern Argentina low event.

Abstract The impact of changes in soil moisture in subtropical Argentina in rainfall distribution and low-level circulation is studied with a state-of-the-art regional model in a downscaling mode, with different scenarios of soil moisture for a 10-day period. The selected case (starting 29 January 2003) was characterized by a northwestern Argentina low event associated with well-defined low-level northerly flow that extended east of the Andes over subtropical latitudes. Four tests were conducted at 40-km horizontal resolution with 31 sigma levels, decreasing and increasing the soil moisture initial condition by 50% over the entire domain, and imposing a 50% reduction over northwest Argentina and 50% increase over southeast South America. A control run with NCEP/Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) initial conditions was used to assess the impact of the different soil moisture configurations. It was found that land surface interactions are stronger when soil moisture is decreased, with a coherent reducti...

Error Evaluation of NCEP and LAHM Regional Model Daily Forecasts over Southern South America

Abstract NCEP short-range operational forecast and Limited Area HIBU (Federal Hydrometeorological Institute and Belgrade University) Model (LAHM) regional model performance during a 2-month period over the southern part of South America are evaluated through the analysis of bias and rmses. While spatial structure of errors could be only examined using gridded operational analyses as the “ground truth,” observed data have been used at two radiosonde stations to have an independent control of forecast and analysis quality. LAHM precipitation forecast error has been also determined using observed 24-h accumulated precipitation over a subregion of interest. Bias and rmse are, in general, lower for Medium-Range Forecast Model (MRF) 24-h forecasts than for the regional model, though MRF errors appear to be larger than those reported by other studies carried out over the whole Southern Hemisphere, suggesting the necessity to perform regional verification analysis whenever gridded analyses and/or forecasts are b...

An early freeze in southern Brazil in April 1999 and its NWP guidance

A cold air outbreak occurred in the third week of April 1999 in southern Brazil. A synoptic study of this rare event is undertaken. A surface high pressure cell in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Chile slowly built up and moved eastward on 14 April. It started crossing the Andes, acquiring the characteristic shape of a bean on 15th, and separated into two cells later in the day. The cell on the lee side of the mountains moved gradually northwards over central South America affecting northern Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, Bolivia and southern Brazil. The temperature fell in the state of Mato Grosso (about ). In southern Brazil temperatures below freezing were registered in some places on the 17th and 18th and frost occurred in many states. There was snowfall in the uplands of Santa Catarina on the 17th, and such an early snow had not been recorded for 30 years. Baroclinic synoptic wave intensification followed by surface low development in association with a cut-off low formation in the middle and upper troposphere were responsible for strong surface southerlies over Argentina on the 16th and 17th. Cold air advection by the southerlies in the eastern sector of the high-pressure centre was responsible for the northward projection of the high pressure cell east of the Andes. The whole event was well predicted by the Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos/Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (CPTEC/INPE) operational global and regional models with lead times of 120 and 60 hours respectively. Copyright

Baixa do Noroeste Argentino e Baixa do Chaco: caracterísitcas, diferenças e semelhanças

The Chaco Low and the Northwestern Argentinean Low are frequently confounded or treated as a single system, due to our limited knowledge about them (especially concerning the Chaco Low), the low resolution of global analyses -that show them as a single low pressure system-, and the relatively poor data coverage over the region where they are usually located. This article aims to contribute to a better understanding of the differences and similarities between them, as well as to analyze the atmospheric dynamical and thermo-dynamical conditions where they evolve. It is considered that this study will aid to a better recognition of both systems. With this purpose, regional reanalyses from the Eta/CPTEC model for the 2000-2004 period has been used. The article focuses in summer months, since both low-pressure systems are more active during this season. Results show that the Northwestern Argentinean Low is more related to transient activity, as can be deducted from the subtropical jet influence on this system and also from the temporal variability of some key variables -such as the sea level pressure and the equivalent potential temperature-. From a thermo-dynamic point of view, the Chaco Low develops in a more unstable environment and is less influenced by middle latitude dynamics.

Classificação sinótica dos campos de pressão atmosférica na América do Sul e sua relação com as baixas do chaco e do noroeste argentino

This work performs a classification of sea level pressure fields for South America during summer and winter, in order to identify the main synoptic patterns associated with the Northwestern Argentinean Low (NAL) and the Chaco Low (CHL). To this purpose, the Principal Component Analysis technique in rotated mode was applied to the NCEP reanalysis for the period from 1985 to 2010. A second objective was to determine the main variability frequencies related to both systems, by employing Spectral Analysis. The results provide five circulation patterns, representative of about 80% of all cases. During summer, the CHL, located between northern Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia and southern MS, is mainly associated with two synoptic patterns. The NAL is associated with a single synoptic mode, similar to the seasonal mean field. During winter, the CHL is not recognized, in agreement with its thermal nature related to latent heat released by tropical convection. The NAL is also associated with a unique synoptic mode during this season. This mode is similar to that obtained in the summer and is also related to synoptic scale disturbances but explaining a lesser percentage of variance. The Frequency Analysis show that the circulation mode associated to the CHL has an energy peak at around 17 days, while the NAL has an energy peak around 22 days in summer and a relative increase of synoptic variability in winter.