Marcelo Teixeira de Holanda

Does my patient have chronic Chagas disease? Development and temporal validation of a diagnostic risk score

INTRODUCTION With the globalization of Chagas disease, unexperienced health care providers may have difficulties in identifying which patients should be examined for this condition. This study aimed to develop and validate a diagnostic clinical prediction model for chronic Chagas disease. METHODS This diagnostic cohort study included consecutive volunteers suspected to have chronic Chagas disease. The clinical information was blindly compared to serological tests results, and a logistic regression model was fit and validated. RESULTS The development cohort included 602 patients, and the validation cohort included 138 patients. The Chagas disease prevalence was 19.9%. Sex, age, referral from blood bank, history of living in a rural area, recognizing the kissing bug, systemic hypertension, number of siblings with Chagas disease, number of relatives with a history of stroke, ECG with low voltage, anterosuperior divisional block, pathologic Q wave, right bundle branch block, and any kind of extrasystole were included in the final model. Calibration and discrimination in the development and validation cohorts (ROC AUC 0.904 and 0.912, respectively) were good. Sensitivity and specificity analyses showed that specificity reaches at least 95% above the predicted 43% risk, while sensitivity is at least 95% below the predicted 7% risk. Net benefit decision curves favor the model across all thresholds. CONCLUSIONS A nomogram and an online calculator (available at http://shiny.ipec.fiocruz.br:3838/pedrobrasil/chronic_chagas_disease_prediction/) were developed to aid in individual risk estimation.

Evolution of anti-Trypanosoma cruzi antibody production in patients with chronic Chagas disease: Correlation between antibody titers and development of cardiac disease severity

Chagas disease is one of the most important endemic infections in Latin America affecting around 6–7 million people. About 30–50% of patients develop the cardiac form of the disease, which can lead to severe cardiac dysfunction and death. In this scenario, the identification of immunological markers of disease progression would be a valuable tool for early treatment and reduction of death rates. In this observational study, the production of anti-Trypanosoma cruzi antibodies through a retrospective longitudinal follow-up in chronic Chagas disease patients´ cohort and its correlation with disease progression and heart commitment was evaluated. Strong inverse correlation (ρ = -0.6375, p = 0.0005) between anti-T. cruzi IgG1 titers and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC) patients were observed after disease progression. Elevated levels of anti-T. cruzi IgG3 titers were detected in all T. cruzi-infected patients, indicating a lack of correlation of this IgG isotype with disease progression. Furthermore, low levels of anti-T. cruzi IgG2, IgG4, and IgA were detected in all patients through the follow-up. Although without statistical significance anti-T. cruzi IgE tends to be more reactive in patients with the indeterminate form (IND) of the disease (p = 0.0637). As this study was conducted in patients with many years of chronic disease no anti-T. cruzi IgM was detected. Taken together, these results indicate that the levels of anti-T. cruzi IgG1 could be considered to seek for promising biomarkers to predict the severity of chronic Chagas disease cardiomyopathy.