Marcelo Torres

Economic impacts of regional water scarcity in the Sao Francisco River Basin, Brazil: an application of a linked hydro-economic model

This paper presents a linked hydro-economic model and uses it to examine the regional effects of water use regulations and product price changes on the agriculture of the Sao Francisco River Basin, Brazil. The effects of weather on surface water availability are explicitly addressed using the hydrological model MIKE-Basin. Farmers’ adjustments to changes in precipitation, surface water availability, and other factors are quantified using an economic model based on non-linear programming techniques. The models are externally linked. Results show that regional impacts, at the sub-basin level, vary depending on the location of each sub-basin relative to river flows. The effects of water use regulations and of exogenous price shocks on agriculture depend on weather, location, product mix and production technology. Implications of these results for policies designed to manage agriculture and water use are discussed.

Assessing agriculture–water links at the basin scale: hydrologic and economic models of the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil

This article uses a basin-wide hydrologic model to assess the hydrologic and economic effects of expanding agriculture in the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil. It then uses a basin-wide economic model of agriculture to examine the effects of implementing water use regulations. Preliminary results suggest that substantially expanding agriculture would put pressure on some of the rivers environmental flows. Agricultural output and rural employment would increase, though not in spatially uniform ways. The economic model demonstrates how cropping area, crop mix and production technology respond simultaneously to water shortages. While farmers can adjust, the costs of doing so may be beyond the reach of resource-poor farmers.

Productive performance in fisheries: modeling, measurement, and management

We overview the roles of production structure models in measuring fisheries’ productive performance to provide policy-relevant guidance for fishery managers and analysts. In particular, we summarize the literature on the representation and estimation of production structure models to construct productive performance measures for fisheries, with a focus on parametric empirical applications and on the management implications of these kinds of measures.

Water Pricing in Brazil: Successes, Failures, and New Approaches

Brazil is marked by its vastness and contrast in terms of availability and access to water. We select and provide a description of the water pricing experiences in place during the past 15 years at the Doce, Verde Grande, Paraiba do Sul, Piracicaba-Capivari-Jundiai (PCJ), and Sao Francisco River basins, which are under federal jurisdiction and, thus, under the responsibility of the Brazilian National Water Agency (Agencia Nacional de Aguas-ANA). The pioneer pricing system of the Paraiba do Sul River basin has been a reference for others throughout Brazil. Generally, water users are charged for water withdrawal and consumption and for effluent discharge in terms of quantity and concentration of Oxygen Biologic Demand per m3. While ANA is responsible as the federal agency in charge, local basin committees were empowered and make the ultimate decision on setting basic unit prices for water, adjustment coefficients, and granting water permits.

Spatial patterns of rural poverty: an exploratory analysis in the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil

This paper uses recently released municipio-level data on rural poverty in Brazil to identify and analyze spatial patterns of rural poverty in the Sao Francisco River Basin (SFRB). Moran’s I statistics are generated and used to test for spatial autocorrelation, and to prepare cluster maps that locate rural poverty “hot spots” and “cold spots.” Our results indicate that poverty reduction policies in the SFRB should take into account the spatial distribution of poverty. Not only is poverty in the SFRB clustered spatially, but the bulk of the basin’s poor resides in municipios that comprise the poverty ‘hot spots’ we identified. These clusters did not correspond to state-level boundaries (the political delineations often used to measure poverty and to manage poverty reduction programs), so scope may exist for geographically refocusing poverty reduction efforts to make them more efficient. Maybe more importantly the results set the stage for the use of spatial econometrics for a future multivariate analysis of rural poverty in the basin.