Márcia D. B. Oliveira

An overview of social network analysis

Data mining is being increasingly applied to social networks. Two relevant reasons are the growing availability of large volumes of relational data, boosted by the proliferation of social media web sites, and the intuition that an individuals connections can yield richer information than his/her isolate attributes. This synergistic combination can show to be germane to a variety of applications such as churn prediction, fraud detection and marketing campaigns. This paper attempts to provide a general and succinct overview of the essentials of social network analysis for those interested in taking a first look at this area and oriented to use data mining in social networks.

A framework to monitor clusters evolution applied to economy and finance problems

The study of evolution has become an important research issue, especially in the last decade, due to our ability to collect and store high detailed and time-stamped data. The need for describing and understanding the behavior of a given phenomena over time led to the emergence of new frameworks and methods focused on the temporal evolution of data and models. In this paper we address the problem of monitoring the evolution of clusters over time and propose the MEC framework. MEC traces evolution through the detection and categorization of clusters transitions, such as births, deaths and merges, and enables their visualization through bipartite graphs. It includes a taxonomy of transitions, a tracking method based in the computation of conditional probabilities, and a transition detection algorithm. We use MEC with two main goals: to determine the general evolution trends and to detect abnormal behavior or rare events. To demonstrate the applicability of our framework we present real world economic and financial case studies, using datasets extracted from Banco de Portugal Central Balance-Sheet Database and the The Data Page of New York University --Leonard N. Stern School of Business. The results allow us to draw interesting conclusions about the evolution of activity sectors and European companies.

Bipartite graphs for monitoring clusters transitions

The study of evolution has become an important research issue, especially in the last decade, due to a greater awareness of our world’s volatility. As a consequence, a new paradigm has emerged to respond more effectively to a class of new problems in Data Mining. In this paper we address the problem of monitoring the evolution of clusters and propose the MClusT framework, which was developed along the lines of this new Change Mining paradigm. MClusT includes a taxonomy of transitions, a tracking method based in Graph Theory, and a transition detection algorithm. To demonstrate its feasibility and applicability we present real world case studies, using datasets extracted from Banco de Portugal and the Portuguese Institute of Statistics. We also test our approach in a benchmark dataset from TSDL. The results are encouraging and demonstrate the ability of MClusT framework to provide an efficient diagnosis of clusters transitions.

Dynamic communities in evolving customer networks: an analysis using landmark and sliding windows

The widespread availability of Customer Relationship Management applications in modern organizations, allows companies to collect and store vast amounts of high-detailed customer-related data. Making sense of these data using appropriate methods can yield insights into customers’ behaviour and preferences. The extracted knowledge can then be explored for marketing purposes. Social Network Analysis techniques can play a key role in business analytics. By modelling the implicit relationships among customers as a social network, it is possible to understand how patterns in these relationships translate into competitive advantages for the company. Additionally, the incorporation of the temporal dimension in such analysis can help detect market trends and changes in customers’ preferences. In this paper, we introduce a methodology to examine the dynamics of customer communities, which relies on two different time window models: a landmark and a sliding window. Landmark windows keep all the historical data and treat all nodes and links equally, even if they only appear at the early stages of the network life. Such approach is appropriate for the long-term analysis of networks, but may fail to provide a realistic picture of the current evolution. On the other hand, sliding windows focus on the most recent past thus allowing to capture current events. The application of the proposed methodology on a real-world customer network suggests that both window models provide complementary information. Nevertheless, the sliding window model is able to capture better the recent changes of the network.

Where are we going? predicting the evolution of individuals

When searching for patterns on data streams, we come across perennial (dynamic) objects that evolve over time. These objects are encountered repeatedly and each time with different definition and values. Examples are (a) companies registered at stock exchange and reporting their progress at the end of each year, and (b) students whose performance is evaluated at the end of each semester. On such data, domain experts also pose questions on how the individual objects will evolve: would it be beneficial to invest in a given company, given both the companys individual performance thus far and the drift experienced in the model? Or, how will a given student perform next year, given the performance variations observed thus far? While there is much research on how models evolve/change over time [Ntoutsi et al., 2011a], little is done to predict the change of individual objects when the states are not known a priori. In this work, we propose a framework that learns the clusters to which the objects belong at each moment, uses them as ad hoc states in a state-transition graph, and then learns a mixture model of Markov Chains, which predicts the next most likely state/cluster per object. We report on our evaluation on synthetic and real datasets.

Empirical analysis of the Portuguese governments social network

The Portuguese governmental network comprising all the 776 ministers and junior ministers who were part of the 19 governments between the year 1976 and 2013 is presented and analyzed. The data contain information on connections concerning business and other types of organizations and, to our knowledge, there is no such extensive research in previous literature. Upon the presentation of the data, a social network analysis considering the temporal dimension is performed at three levels of granularity: network-level, subnetwork-level (political groups) and node-level. A discussion based on the results is presented. We conclude that although it fits two of the four preconditions of a small-world model, the Portuguese governmental network is not a small-world network, although presenting an evolution pointing toward becoming one. Also, we use a resilience test to study the evolution of the robustness of the Portuguese governmental network, pinpointing the moment when a set of members became structurally important.

A Framework for Analysing Dynamic Communities in Large-scale Social Networks

Telecommunications companies must process large-scale social networks that reveal the communication patterns among their customers. These networks are dynamic in nature as new customers appear, old customers leave, and the interaction among customers changes over time. One way to uncover the evolution patterns of such entities is by monitoring the evolution of the communities they belong to. Large-scale networks typically comprise thousands, or hundreds of thousands, of communities and not all of them are worth monitoring, or interesting from the business perspective. Several methods have been proposed for tracking the evolution of groups of entities in dynamic networks but these methods lack strategies to effectively extract knowledge and insight from the analysis. In this paper we tackle this problem by proposing an integrated business-oriented framework to track and interpret the evolution of communities in very large networks. The framework encompasses several steps such as network sampling, community detection, community selection, monitoring of dynamic communities and rule-based interpretation of community evolutionary profiles. The usefulness of the proposed framework is illustrated using a real-world large-scale social network from a major telecommunications company.