Marcia Levenstein

Prognostic index for malignant melanoma

This report verifies the ability of a Prognostic Index (PI) to accurately predict 5‐year survival rates for 879 Stage I cutaneous malignant melanoma (MM) patients seen at New York University Medical Center. The PI used in this study was first reported from Munich, West Germany, and is calculated from standard histologic sections by multiplying the MM thickness in millimeters (Breslow method) by the number of MM mitoses per square millimeter. A PI value of <19 versus ≥19 was found to be a significant and independent prognostic variable for Stage I MM when compared with seven other predictive variables (including Breslow thickness). These PI intervals identified a subgroup of patients with MM of intermediate thicknesses (1.50–3.49 mm) whose significantly worse survival would not have been anticipated if prognosis were determined by Breslow thickness alone. For example, patients with MM 1.50 to 2.49 mm thick have a 5‐year survival rate of 84.1% determined by Breslow thickness alone; however, among these patients exists a subgroup with PI ≥ 19 whose survival rate is only 57.6%. This study verifies the additive usefulness of the PI in predicting survival rates of patients with Stage I cutaneous MM. Cancer 59:1236‐1241, 1987.

Regression in malignant melanoma

A multiple stepwise logistic regression analysis shows that histologic regression is more likely to be found in a malignant melanoma that is level III or less, more than 10 mm in diameter, associated with solar elastosis, located on an anatomic area other than the head or neck, and when there are areas of whiteness clinically. Although patients with malignant melanomas displaying signs of regression histologically have a slightly better 5-year disease-free survival, this may be attributed to a difference in tumor thickness.

Clinical characteristics of malignant melanomas developing in persons with dysplastic nevi

A total of 452 patients with dysplastic nevi (DN) were followed prospectively by repetitive, complete cutaneous examinations in order to determine the clinical features of early malignant melanomas (MM) arising in them. Sixteen patients (3.5%) developed 18 newly diagnosed MM during an average follow‐up period of 27 months. Twelve of the 18 MM were in situ and all of the primary invasive MM diagnosed prospectively in this follow‐up were less than 0.89 mm in Breslow thickness, implying an excellent prognosis. The principal clinical clue to the diagnosis of MM was change in a preexisting pigmented lesion. Total‐body photographs were very useful in helping to identify the early MM in these patients.

Relationship of nevocytic nevi to sun exposure in dysplastic nevus syndrome

In eighty consecutive patients who have the dysplastic nevus syndrome, the concentration of nevocytic nevi on the relatively sun-protected lateral thoracic area was compared to the concentration on the relatively sun-exposed areas of the anterior and posterior thorax. Nevocytic nevi in an area 7 X 20 cm were counted in each location. There was a total of 177 nevi on the lateral thorax (average, 2.2 nevi/person), 361 on the anterior thorax (average, 4.5 nevi/person), and 506 on the posterior thorax (average, 6.3 nevi/person). Men showed no significant difference in the number of nevi on the anterior and posterior thoracic areas, but women had fewer nevi on the anterior than on the posterior thoracic sites. These findings are consonant with the hypothesis that sunlight induces nevocytic nevi in patients who have the dysplastic nevus syndrome.

Influence of gender on survival in patients with stage I malignant melanoma

BACKGROUND Women with stage I malignant melanoma (MM) have a survival advantage over men as judged by univariate analysis. However, on multivariate analysis, gender was found to be an independent predictor of survival in only 8 of 14 published studies. OBJECTIVE This study attempts to explain the disparate findings for gender as a prognostic factor in different multivariate analyses. METHODS Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed on 832 patients with stage I MM in the New York University Melanoma Cooperative Group (NYU-MCG) data base. The results were compared with those of 14 similar studies. RESULTS In the NYU-MCG data base, gender, age of the patient, and number of mitoses per square millimeter were not independent factors on multivariate analysis, whereas thickness, anatomic site, and presence of ulceration were. The statistically significant difference in survival by gender on univariate analysis, in the NYU-MCG data base, could be explained by the differences in thickness and anatomic site of the MMs in the sexes. Comparison of these results with the reviewed reports from the literature consistently shows thickness and ulceration to be independent prognosticators of survival. Likewise, most authors agree that age is not an independent predictor. However, there is no consensus with respect to gender and site, each of which was found to be an independent predictor of survival in only about half the studies reviewed. CONCLUSION The disparate findings for gender in different multivariate analyses are explained by a gender-related difference in anatomic distribution of MM. Gender and site appear to have a similar influence in multivariate analysis and thus either one or the other is a dominant factor in different multivariate analyses.

Influence of anatomic location on prognosis of malignant melanoma: Attempt to verify the BANS model

Stage I cutaneous malignant melanomas between 0.76 and 1.69 mm thick (Breslow measurement) in BANS (upper part of the back, posterior aspects of the arms, posterior and lateral aspects of the neck, posterior aspect of the scalp) areas have been reported to portend a relatively poor prognosis compared to non-BANS sites. We were unable to confirm the 15% poorer survival for BANS area lesions (84% BANS, 99% non-BANS) originally reported. In this report of 211 patients, malignant melanomas in BANS sites had a 4.6% poorer 5-year cumulative survival rate (88.9% BANS, 93.5% non-BANS; p = 0.35). Although many more patients need to be studied, we believe this small difference in survival is insufficient to influence therapeutic management strategies.