Marcin Koprowski

Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature

We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s–1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer.

Dendrochronology in the dry tropics: the Ethiopian case

Dendrochronology is developing outside temperate and boreal regions. Over the past decade substantial progress has been made in Mediterranean and wet tropical regions. However, research in dry tropical regions, notably those of sub-Saharan Africa, has remained fragmentary. Here, we try to identify the unique challenges and opportunities of dendrochronology in the dry tropics. First, we briefly review the status of dendrochronology outside temperate and boreal regions with an emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa. Subsequently, we focus upon one of those areas where dendrochronology in the dry tropics is at the forefront of scientific advance: Ethiopia. A detailed review of tree ring studies in the lowlands and highlands highlights the complexity of ring formation and made us identify four major types of growth ring expression: anatomically not distinct rings, multiple rings per year, annual rings and multiple missing rings. This complex tree growth behaviour is associated with large-scale variations in precipitation regime (unimodal to multimodal) and relatively small-scale variations in tree sensitivity to water availability. Literature results are used to develop a scheme that can be used to predict differences in growth ring formation along gradients in these two factors. Because of the exceptional growth sensitivity of and the importance of local site conditions (topography, biological factors, etc.) for most trees sampled, those growing at the limits of their ecological amplitude are prone to possess multiple rings per year or multiple missing rings. In such circumstances, site selection should not always take place at the limits of the ecological amplitude of a species, but may sometimes have to be diverted to more mesic environments. Successful studies are now appearing, such as those reporting correlations between tree ring chronologies and Blue Nile river flows.

Tree rings of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as a source of information about past climate in northern Poland

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) is a very common tree in Polish forests, and therefore was widely used as timber. A relatively large amount of available wood allowed a long-term chronology to be built up and used as a source of information about past climate. The analysis of reconstructed indexed values of mean temperature in 51-year moving intervals allowed the recognition of the coldest periods in the years 1207–1346, 1383–1425, 1455–1482, 1533–1574, 1627–1646, and 1694–1785. The analysis of extreme wide and narrow rings forms a complementary method of examining climatic data within tree rings. The tree ring widths, early wood and late wood widths of 16 samples were assessed during the period 1581–1676. The most apparent effect is noted in the dry summer of 1616. According to previous research and our findings, temperature from February to March seems to be one of the most stable climatic factors which influenced pine growth in Poland. Correlation coefficients in the calibration and validation procedure gave promising results for temperature reconstruction from the pine chronology.

Towards a reconstruction of Blue Nile baseflow from Ethiopian tree rings

Most of the water in the River Nile originates from monsoonal rainfall over the Ethiopian Highlands. Despite warnings of future climate change, little is known about the historical variability in this supply, particularly at annual resolution. Development of tree-ring records in this region has been limited by the occurrence of bi- or multimodal rainfall regimes, causing the development of multiple growth rings that cannot be dated with confidence. In this study, we identified annual rings in 30 Juniperus procera trees from northwest Ethiopia by dendrochronology and AMS radiocarbon dating. Carbon isotope ratios (4 series) and ring widths (73 series) were measured.The carbon isotope series did not contain strong trends possibly attributable to increased anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 concentrations or the juvenile effect. Both carbon isotope values and ring widths were strongly correlated with Blue Nile baseflow, and from composite chronology indices (r=0.75, p < 0.01), a preliminary reconstruction of Blue Nile baseflow back to AD 1836 was developed. Subsample signal strength remained above 0.85 for most of the reconstruction. Uncertainty bands were relatively narrow and the reliability of the preliminary reconstruction was confirmed by correspondence with reported years of drought and famine. The preliminary reconstruction is characterized by an exceptional decline in baseflow during the late AD 1960s. Flows recovered during the late 1990s. Additional sampling is advised to increase replication, spatial coverage and length of the preliminary reconstruction.

Dendrochronology of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) from two range centres in lowland Poland

In Europe, spruce grows in two main regions which meet in Poland, one to the north and east, the other to the south and west. The northeastern area ranges from the northern treeline extending from Norway to Siberia, to southern Sweden, north-eastern Poland and the southern Ural mountains. The southwestern spruce region reaches the mountainous areas of the Alps and the Balkans, the mountains and uplands of the Sudety Mountains, the Carpathians and neighbouring lowlands. Opinions about the distribution of Norway spruce have changed over the years, and its scarcity in the centre of Poland has been strongly debated. The favoured current theory is that Norway spruce once had a continuous distribution in Poland. It is assumed that the rare occurrence in the central Polish lowland is due to a combination of unfavourable soil conditions and previous management activity. The main aim of this work was to analyse climate–growth relationships of Norway spruce in eastern Poland and distinguish regions with similar increment patterns with regards to spruce range. Spruce growth in northern Polish sites is positively correlated with rainfall from May to July. Tree-ring widths in southern sites are more correlated with March temperature. Selected homogenous regions are the same as range types. Trees from the so-called “spruceless area” seem to have similar climate–growth relationships to trees from the southern region. This finding does not settle the question of the origin of the trees, but it does indicate that similar environmental conditions exist in these two areas and proves that the climate was not a limiting factor there.

Structure and function of intra–annual density fluctuations: Mind the gaps

Tree rings are natural archives of climate and environmental information with a yearly resolution. Indeed, wood anatomical, chemical, and other properties of tree rings are a synthesis of several intrinsic and external factors, and their interaction during tree growth. In particular, Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations (IADFs) can be considered as tree-ring anomalies that can be used to better understand tree growth and to reconstruct past climate conditions with intra-annual resolution. However, the ecophysiological processes behind IADF formation, as well as their functional impact, remain unclear. Are IADFs resulting from a prompt adjustment to fluctuations in environmental conditions to avoid stressful conditions and/or to take advantage from favorable conditions? In this paper we discuss: (1) the influence of climatic factors on the formation of IADFs; (2) the occurrence of IADFs in different species and environments; (3) the potential of new approaches to study IADFs and identify their triggering factors. Our final aim is to underscore the advantages offered by network analyses of data and the importance of high-resolution measurements to gain insight into IADFs formation processes and their relations with climatic conditions, including extreme weather events.

Did the late spring frost in 2007 and 2011 affect tree-ring width and earlywood vessel size in Pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) in northern Poland?

Trees are sensitive to extreme weather and environmental conditions. This sensitivity is visible in tree-ring widths and cell structure. In our study, we hypothesized that the sudden frost noted at the beginning of May in both 2007 and 2011 affected cambial activity and, consequently, the number and size of vessels in the tree rings. It was decided to test this hypothesis after damage to leaves was observed. The applied response function model did not show any significant relationships between spring temperature and growth. However, this method uses average values for long periods and sometimes misses the short-term effects. This is why we decided to study each ring separately, comparing them with rings unaffected by the late frost. Our study showed that the short-term effect of sudden frost in late spring did not affect tree rings and selected cell parameters. The most likely reasons for this are (i) cambial activity producing the earlywood vessels before the occurrence of the observed leaf damage, (ii) the forest micro-climate protecting the trees from the harsh frost and (iii) the temperature decline being too short-lived an event to affect the oaks. On the other hand, the visible damage may be occasional and not affect cambium activity and tree vitality at all. We conclude that oak is well-adapted to this phenomenon.

Growth/Climate Relationships in Tree-Ring Widths of Picea Abies in Lithuania and Poland

The main aim of this study is to generalise the climate – growth response of spruce on the selected sites in natural stands of Poland and Lithuania where climatic conditions and biogeographical differences are expressed in terms of the influences of oceanic and continental climates. For this purpose almost 2,000 cores were taken from 92 sites (10–30 trees per site, two cores per tree). Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) was used to distinguish regions with similar increment patterns. Climate-growth relationships were calculated by means of the PRECON program (Fritts 1996). We were able to recognize four main groups where linkage distance is higher than 2 (Figs. 14.1 and 14.2). Tree-ring-widths from three regions (1a, 1b, 2a) are mostly determined by precipitation during the vegetation period, especially from May to July (Tables 14.1, 14.2 and 14.3). Trees from the southern part of Poland (region 2b) are more sensitive to March temperature (Table 14.4).The decrease in dominance of the Atlantic climate from the south to the northeast is also responsible for distinguishing regions 2a and 2b.

The application of potato starch effluent causes a reduction in the photosynthetic efficiency and growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.)

Key messageThe high concentration of N and K caused a weakening of physiological conditions of the trees. Application of N, P and K from starch effluent is not a suitable method of waste management.AbstractSince 1984, potato starch effluent has been applied to trees in the Iława Forest Inspectorate to promote the biological utilization of this waste product containing high amounts of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K). We examined the tree rings of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) to study the effect of intensive fertilization on tree rings. A total of 120 samples were taken from three sites representing a fertilized and unfertilized area and trees growing at a control site, outside the forest waste water system. We found that February and March temperature influenced the growth of tree rings. We used multiple regression to investigate the influence of N, P and K concentration, the amount of waste water and February and March temperature upon tree growth. Akaike information criterion (AIC) model selection was applied to choose the most influential factors upon growth, and additional multiple regression analyses were performed for two subsets of variables. Trees growing on the unfertilized site responded positively to N content and negatively to P content. For the fertilized site, the high concentration of N and K together with decreasing volume of waste water caused a growth decline. Trees from fertilized area also showed a decrease in their photosynthetic efficiency.

REACTION OF SILVER FIR (ABIES ALBA) GROWING OUTSIDE ITS NATURAL RANGE TO EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS AND A LONG-TERM INCREASE IN MARCH TEMPERATURE

Abstract Silver fir trees grown outside their natural distributional range were intensively studied in terms of their adaptability to increased late winter temperature and extreme weather events. The main questions of the study are: what is the influence of March temperature increase on tree rings and is the further introduction of silver fir outside its natural range economically justified? A total of 268 cores of silver fir were obtained from 12 sites throughout north Poland, which were located outside its natural range. Next, standard dendrochronological and dendroclimatological methods were applied. The March temperature increase was investigated using the bootstrap running correlation option with a 25-year moving window. Response function analysis revealed that the studied trees were more sensitive to winter temperature than to precipitation. Hierarchical cluster analysis identified two distinct geographical regions of fir growth. The positive effect of high March temperature is observed in both regions. Trees from the northwestern Poland region recovered from an extreme cold period in the following year, whereas trees from northeastern Poland were more sensitive, and needed an additional year for recovery. The reason for the relatively fast growth recovery in northwestern Poland is the influence of the mild Atlantic and Baltic climates.