Marco Locurcio

Land Use, Economic Welfare and Property Values: An Analysis of the Interdependencies of the Real-Estate Market with Zonal and Socio-Economic Variables in the Municipalities of Apulia Region (Italy)

In the paper an analysis of functional correlations of property prices with the main locational and socio-economic variables, which generally contribute to define the market value of properties, has been developed. Locational characteristics are represented by the surfaces of soil used for the main functions, borrowing the logic of the system of classification of CORINE Land Cover (European Commission). The analysis has been contextualized to the 258 municipalities of the Apulia region (Southern Italy), and has been referred to two different moments (years 2006 and 2011), and two different market segments (residential and retail). The functional relationships between property prices and explanatory variables considered, estimated through a software that implements a genetic algorithm, are particularly interesting. The methodology outlined constitutes a valuable reference for the definition of models aimed at supporting, in a more rational and convenient way, public planning decisions and private investment choices.

Fuzzy logic and coherence control in multi-criteria evaluation of urban redevelopment projects

In the decision-making process of urban regeneration projects, the lack of transparency is one of the most frequent causes of the deceleration and the stopping of initiatives. In the present work, with reference to a multi-criteria model recently developed for the municipality of Rome Italy, a solution to this issue has been proposed. Borrowing the formal logic of fuzzy systems, the possibility to assign a different importance to the parameters which explain the objectives of the redevelopment, to compare the projects submitted by different operators, as well as to make it clear the phase in which the public administration evaluates the priorities of the projects, has been introduced. A measure of the coherence of the projects submitted by private operators with the importance of the objectives of redevelopment set by the public administration has been computed. The result is a flexible structure of the algorithm developed, able to adapt to the specificities of the case study and to the changes that, over time, could arise in the evaluation mechanism of the decision maker.

Urban Redevelopment: A Multi-criteria Valuation Model Optimized through the Fuzzy Logic

In decision-making processes related to urban redevelopment, the clarity and the transparency play a primary role. In these contexts, the multi-criteria techniques, despite having a wide application, are not always adequate to represent and to quantify the quality effects of the urban initiatives, as well as to compare the alternatives for choosing the best solution, phases in which the logical rules followed by the decision-maker are not usually explicited. In the present work, with reference to a multi-criteria model recently developed for the municipality of Rome (Italy) to streamline and make more transparent the definition of urban regeneration projects, a solution to these issues is proposed, through the use of a fuzzy logic system. Using linguistic variables and expressions of ordinary language, logical rules followed by the decision-maker in performing the evaluations have been formalized. The result is a decision-making process clear and easy to understand, with positive effects on the legitimacy of the decisions of the Public Administration.

Property Valuations in Times of Crisis. Artificial Neural Networks and Evolutionary Algorithms in Comparison

In the current economic situation, characterized by a high uncertainty in the appraisal of property values, the need of “slender” models able to operate even on limited data, to automatically capture the causal relations between explanatory variables and selling prices and to predict property values in the short term, is increasingly widespread. In addition to Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), that satisfy these prerogatives, recently, in some fields of Civil Engineering an hybrid data-driven technique has been implemented, called Evolutionary Polynomial Regression (EPR), that combines the effectiveness of Genetic Programming with the advantage of classical numerical regression. In the present paper, ANN methods and the EPR procedure are compared for the construction of estimation models of real estate market values. With reference to a sample of residential apartments recently sold in a district of the city of Bari (Italy), two estimation models of market value are implemented, one based on ANN and another using EPR, in order to test the respective performance. The analysis has highlighted the preferability of the EPR model in terms of statistical accuracy, empirical verification of results obtained and reduction of the complexity of the mathematical expression.

Multicriteria analysis and genetic algorithms for mass appraisals in the Italian property market

Purpose This paper aims to test and compare two innovative methodologies (utility additive and evolutionary polynomial regression) for mass appraisal of residential properties. The aim is to deepen their characteristics, by exploring the potentialities and the operating limits. Design/methodology/approach With reference to the same case studies, concerning samples of residential properties recently sold in three Italian cities, the two procedures are tested and the results are compared. The first method is the utility additive, which interprets the process of the property price formation as a multi-criteria selection of multi-objective typology, where the selection criteria are the property characteristics that are decisive in the real estate market; the second method is a hybrid data-driven technique, called evolutionary polynomial regression, that uses multi-objective genetic algorithms to search those models expressions that simultaneously maximize accuracy of data and parsimony of mathematical functions. Findings The outputs obtained from the experimentation highlight the potentialities and the limits of the two methodologies, as well as the possibility of jointly applying them to interpret and predict the real estate phenomena in a more realistic representation. Originality value In all countries, mass appraisal techniques have become strategic for the definition of management and enhancement policies of public and private property assets, in the case of investments of technical and economic refunctionalization (energy, environment, etc.), and for the alienation of buildings no longer suitable for public needs (military barracks, hospitals, areas in disuse, etc.). In this context, the use of mass appraisal techniques for residential properties assumes a leading role for sector operators (buyers, sellers, institutions, insurance companies, banks, real estate funds, etc.). Therefore, the results of the applications outline the potentialities of the two methodologies implemented and the opportunity of further insights of the topics that have been dealt with in this research.

Energy Production Through Roof-Top Wind Turbines A GIS-Based Decision Support Model for Planning Investments in the City of Bari (Italy)

In this paper the financial feasibility in the installation of roof-top wind turbines in the territory of the city of Bari (Italy) has been analyzed. The elaborations carried out have allowed to define “wind” maps, in terms of annual mean wind speed and annual energy production, and evaluative maps, in terms of total profit for the investor and land lease values of the flat roofs of existing buildings. The thematic maps generated constitute a primary support for the operators interested in taking advantage of European resources and/or the incentives offered by energy regulations for the installation of roof-top wind turbines and identifying the areas characterized by higher yields. Furthermore, the model obtained provides investors and flat roofs’ owners motivated and contextualized economic values, referred to the local wind power capacities of the areas in which the installation of roof-top wind turbines is financially convenient.

An innovative interpretation of the DCFA evaluation criteria in the public-private partnership for the enhancement of the public property assets

With reference to the public-private partnership procedures for the enhancement of the public property assets, in this paper an innovative methodology for assessing the financial conveniences of the parties involved (private investor and Public Administration) is proposed. The developed method borrows the most widely-used evaluation criteria for the verification of the investment financial sustainability, and through basic logical assumptions, it allows to define combinations of the financial performance indicators easily interpretable by the parties involved and to be used in the negotiation phases. The aim is to provide a rapid tool for the verification of the investment financial viability, through an original interpretation of the classic DCFA evaluation criteria, that could be more relevant to the typology of public-private partnership agreements for the territorial regeneration.

A Fuzzy Multi-criteria Decision Model for the Regeneration of the Urban Peripheries

The regeneration of the urban peripheral areas is undoubtedly among the most complex issues with which the Public Administrations are currently facing. Different interests, often conflicting, coming from citizens, entrepreneurs and stakeholders, focus on these areas. In the present research a fuzzy multi-criteria decision model is proposed, as support of the Public Administration in the analysis of different scenarios, referred to different temporal moments. The application to four different urban peripheries located in the metropolitan area of Rome (Italy) highlights the potentialities of this model. The representation of the results through a radar diagram and a histogram makes them easily intelligible also by non-expert subjects.