Marcos Costa Holanda

Forecasting the impacts of climate variability: lessons from the rainfed corn market in Ceará, Brazil

A number of studies show that climatic shocks have significant economic impacts in several regions of the world, especially in, but not limited to, developing economies. In this paper we focus on a drought-related indicator of well-being and emergency spending in the Brazilian semi-arid zone – rainfed corn market – and estimate aggregate behavioral and forecast models for this market conditional on local climate determinants. We find encouraging evidence that our approach can help policy makers buy time to help them prepare for drought mitigating actions. The analysis is applicable to economies elsewhere in the world and climatic impacts other than those caused by droughts.

VANTAGENS COMPARATIVAS MUNICIPAIS: INDICADORES E DETERMINANTES

Este trabalho apresenta uma proposta de Indicador de Vantagem Comparativa Municipal (IVCM) para auxiliar politicas governamentais de investimento. O IVCM e indicador de resultado associado a Produtividade Total dos Fatores. No artigo, o IVCM e estimado para os municipios do Estado do Ceara. Alem disso, atraves de um exercicio econometrico, busca-se compreender quais sao os principais determinantes destas vantagens comparativas. Observa-se que a infra-estrutura local - variavel que o governo estadual mais intensamente pode influenciar - responde por apenas uma pequena parte da competitividade da maioria das regioes.

Contagion effect in Latin America big three

The article investigates the occurrence of contagion among the three main economies of Latin America during the second half of the 90s. The investigation is based on the Brady Bonds market for Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. Three methodologies are applied to quantify the contagion effect: correlation of Brady Bonds price, analyses of residuals of estimated regressions and signal extraction analyses through the Kalman filter.

The impact on consumption of more cash in conditional cash transfer programs

This paper evaluates the impact of an increase in the value of the cash transfer paid to families by the Brazilian Bolsa Familia program. The existence of a similar program in the state of Ceara, Bolsa Cidadao, that increases the value received by a sub-group of families, provides a unique dataset, enabling us to evaluate the effect of a higher value of transfer on the spending of comparable households. There is a significant increase in consumption, but it is smaller than the increment in the income, suggesting that the consumption of the households is not properly declared.

Industrial Development from Tax Incentives: With Special Application to Ceará

SUMMARY This work seeks to show that a fiscal incentives policy should be based on an analysis of both costs and benefits. When such an analysis is well-prepared, fiscal incentives can be a strong policy for industrial development. In order to illustrate the logic of this reasoning, the case of recent industrial development in the Brazilian state of Ceará is analyzed. RESUMEN. Este estudio busca demostrar que una política de incentivos fiscales debe basarse en el análisis de costos y beneficios. Cuando el análisis se traza correctamente, los incentivos fiscales pueden convertirse en una poderosa política de desarrollo industrial. Para ilustrar la lógica de este razonamiento, se analiza el caso del reciente desarrollo industrial ocurrido en el estado brasileño de Ceará. RESUMO. Este trabalho procura mostrar que uma política de incentivos fiscais deve ser baseada na análise de custos e benefícios. Quando bem desenhada esta análise, os incentivos fiscais podem ser uma forte política de desenvolvimento industrial. Para ilustrar a lógica deste raciocínio é analisado o caso do recente desenvolvimento industrial no estado brasileiro do Ceará.