Marek Brabec

Food Reconstruction Using Isotopic Transferred Signals ( FRUITS): A Bayesian Model for Diet Reconstruction

Human and animal diet reconstruction studies that rely on tissue chemical signatures aim at providing estimates on the relative intake of potential food groups. However, several sources of uncertainty need to be considered when handling data. Bayesian mixing models provide a natural platform to handle diverse sources of uncertainty while allowing the user to contribute with prior expert information. The Bayesian mixing model FRUITS (Food Reconstruction Using Isotopic Transferred Signals) was developed for use in diet reconstruction studies. FRUITS incorporates the capability to account for dietary routing, that is, the contribution of different food fractions (e.g. macronutrients) towards a dietary proxy signal measured in the consumer. FRUITS also provides relatively straightforward means for the introduction of prior information on the relative dietary contributions of food groups or food fractions. This type of prior may originate, for instance, from physiological or metabolic studies. FRUITS performance was tested using simulated data and data from a published controlled animal feeding experiment. The feeding experiment data was selected to exemplify the application of the novel capabilities incorporated into FRUITS but also to illustrate some of the aspects that need to be considered when handling data within diet reconstruction studies. FRUITS accurately predicted dietary intakes, and more precise estimates were obtained for dietary scenarios in which expert prior information was included. FRUITS represents a useful tool to achieve accurate and precise food intake estimates in diet reconstruction studies within different scientific fields (e.g. ecology, forensics, archaeology, and dietary physiology).

The trend of BMI values of US adults by deciles, birth cohorts 1882-1986 stratified by gender and ethnicity

We estimate trends in BMI values by deciles of the US adult population by birth cohorts 1882-1986 stratified by ethnicity and gender. The highest decile increased by some 18-22 BMI units in the course of the century while the lowest ones increased by merely 1-3 BMI units. For example, a typical African American woman in the 10th percentile and 64 in. (162.6 cm) tall increased in weight by just 12 pounds (5 kg) whereas in the 90th percentile her weight would have increased by 128 pounds (58 kg). Hence, the BMI distribution became increasingly right skewed as the distance between the deciles increased considerably. The rate of change of the BMI decile curves varied greatly over time and across gender and ethnicity. The BMI deciles of white men and women experienced upswings after the two world wars and downswings during the Great Depression and also decelerated after 1970. However, among African Americans the pattern is different during the first half of the century with mens rate of increase in BMI values decreasing substantially and that of females remaining constant at a relatively high level until the Second World War. After the war, though, the rate of change of BMI values of blacks came to resemble that of whites with an accelerating phase followed by a slowdown around the 1970s.

Spring migration distances of some Central European amphibian species

Migration distances of eight species of amphibians were studied at 14 sites in the Czech Republic in the course of the 2007 spring migration season. Drift fences with pit-fall traps were installed at varying distances from the reproduction pond. No substitute breeding ponds were available nearby. 4423 m of drift fence was installed and data from a total of 4823 specimens were collected. The estimate 95th percentile migration distances for the newts Lissotriton vulgaris , Mesotriton alpestris and Triturus cristatus were between 105-866 m, and for the frogs Bombina bombina , Bufo bufo , Rana arvalis and R. temporaria estimates were between 170-2214 m. No adult individuals of R. ridibunda were caught out of water. With two exceptions in B. bufo there were no significant among-site differences in migration distances between L. vulgaris , T. cristatus and B. bufo . There were no significant between-sex differences in migration distances of L. vulgaris , M. alpestris , T. cristatus , B. bufo and R. arvalis . Thanks to a great number of various sites processed simultaneously and by the same methodology, presented data provide information on the overall distribution of migration distances in different habitats. The results could be used for the estimation of the extent of the influence on amphibian populations in cases of transection or other habitat degradation in the vicinity of their reproduction ponds.

Leukotrienes and 8-isoprostane in exhaled breath condensate in bronchoprovocation tests with occupational allergens.

Exhaled breath condensate (EBC) contains many substances, which could help in diagnosis of occupational asthma. The aim of the study is to monitor leukotrienes (LT) and 8-isoprostane from EBC in bronchoprovocation tests with allergens in 47 patients with suspected occupational asthma. Forty-one patients were tested negative. In negative bronchoprovocation tests, no significant differences (P<0.05) were seen between the five measurements during and after the test. In control measurements (without provocation), significant differences were found among four measurements done within 24h for 8-isoprostane (P=0.0138). The relationship between the log transformed ratios of the EBC parameters and FEV(1) was never significant at the 5% level in control measurements, while in negative tests, statistical significance was recorded for LTB(4) (P=0.0299) before and 5h after the test. Six of 47 patients were tested positive. Such a small number of patients did not allow proper statistical analysis and therefore, the results are described separately for each patient.

Exposure assessment of breast-fed infants in the Czech Republic to indicator PCBs and selected chlorinated pesticides: area-related differences.

The aim of our study was to obtain data on the exposure of breast-fed infants to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and selected organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in different urban areas of the Czech Republic. The PCB and OCP levels were determined in 90 human milk samples collected in seven urban areas in 1999-2000 according to the WHO protocol. The estimated daily intake (EDI) was calculated for each of the analytes and compared with the respective tolerable daily intake (TDI). Significant local differences in the sum of 35 PCB congeners analyzed (total PCBs) as well as in the most prominent indicator congeners 138, 153, and 180 values were observed, with the highest levels being found in breast milk samples from mothers living in the vicinity of a former plant using PCBs in Uherské Hradiste (median and ranges 3410 and 1448-13,754 ng g(-1)lipid weight (lw)). Non-exposed mothers from the same area had about threefold lower levels (median and ranges 1073 and 757-2139 ng/g lw, respectively). The lowest levels of total PCBs were found in Telc (median and ranges 480 and 293-731 ng g(-1)lw, respectively). In all study areas, EDIs for PCBs in breast-fed infants exceeded the TDI of 0.4 microg kg(-1)bwd(-1) recommended in the Czech Republic. EDI for HCB exceeded the recommended TDI of 0.16 microg kg(-1), EDI for DDT was slightly below TDI of 10 microg kg(-1) bw d(-1) and HCHs EDI was negligible. The database of analytical results from this study was used for Bayesian modeling of breast-fed infant exposure to PCBs and OCPs during the recommended 6 months of exclusive breastfeeding.

Population Dynamics of Aphids on Cereals: Digging in the Time-Series Data to Reveal Population Regulation Caused by Temperature

Aphid populations show periodic fluctuations and many causes are attributed to their dynamic. We investigated the regulation by temperature of the aphid populations composed of Metopolophium dirhodum, Sitobion avenae, and Rhopalosiphum padi on winter wheat using a 24 years long time series data. We computed the sum of daily temperatures above 5°C, the threshold temperature for aphid development, and the sum of daily temperatures within the [0(threshold for wheat development),5] °C interval. Applying Generalised Additive Model framework we tested influences of temperature history expressed via degree days before the start of the aphid immigration on the length of their occurrence. We aimed to estimate the magnitude and direction of this influence, and how far to the past before the start of the aphid season the temperature effect goes and then identify processes responsible for the effect. We fitted four models that differed in the way of correcting for abundance in the previous year and in specification of temperature effects. Abundance in the previous year did not affect the length of period of aphid population growth on wheat. The temperature effect on the period length increased up to 123 days before the start of the current season, i.e. when wheat completed vernalization. Increased sum of daily temperatures above 5°C and the sum of daily temperatures within the [0,5] °C interval both shortened the length of period of aphid population growth. Stronger effect of the latter suggests that wheat can escape from aphid attacks if during winter temperatures range from 0 to 5°C. The temperature influence was not homogeneous in time. The strongest effect of past temperature was about 50 to 80 and 90 to 110 days before the beginning of the current aphid season indicating important role of termination of aphid egg dormancy and egg hatching.

Statistical modeling of energy production by photovoltaic farms

This paper introduces several alternative statistical approaches to modeling and prediction of electric energy generated by photovoltaic farms. The statistical models use outputs of a numerical weather prediction model as their inputs. Presented statistical models allow for easy-to-compute predictions, both in temporal sense and for out-of-sample individual farms. Model performance is illustrated on a sample of real photovoltaic farms located in the Czech Republic.

The variability of automated QRS duration measurement

Aims Previous studies have demonstrated substantial variability in manual assessment of QRS complex duration (QRSd). Disagreements in QRSd measurements were also found in several automated algorithms tested on digitized electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings. The aim of our study was to investigate the variability of automated QRSd measurements performed by two commercially available electrocardiographs. Methods and Results Two GE MAC 5000 (GE-1 and GE-2) electrocardiographs and two Mortara ELI 350 (Mortara-1 and Mortara-2) electrocardiographs were used in the study. Participants for the study were recruited from patients hospitalized in the department of cardiology of a university hospital. Participants underwent up to four recording sessions within a single day with a different electrocardiograph at each session when two to four immediately successive ECG recordings were undertaken. In 76 patients, 683 ECGs were recorded; the mean QRSd was 109.0 ± 26.1 ms. The QRSd difference ≥10 ms between the first and second intra-session ECG was found in 7, 3, 20, and 14% of ECG pairs for GE-1, GE-2, Mortara-1, and Mortara-2, respectively. No inter-session difference in QRSd was found within both manufacturers. In individual patients, Mortara calculated the mean QRSd to be longer by 7.3 ms (95% CI: 6.2-8.5 ms, P < 0.0001) with a 2.1-times (95% CI: 1.9-2.4) greater standard deviation of the mean QRSd (7.1 vs. 3.3 ms, P < 0.001). Conclusion Electrocardiographs from two manufacturers measured QRSd values with a systematic difference and a significantly different level of precision. This may have important clinical implications in selection of suitable candidates for cardiac resynchronization therapy.

Nowcasting sunshine number using logistic modeling

In this paper, we present a formalized approach to statistical modeling of the sunshine number, binary indicator of whether the Sun is covered by clouds introduced previously by Badescu (Theor Appl Climatol 72:127–136, 2002). Our statistical approach is based on Markov chain and logistic regression and yields fully specified probability models that are relatively easily identified (and their unknown parameters estimated) from a set of empirical data (observed sunshine number and sunshine stability number series). We discuss general structure of the model and its advantages, demonstrate its performance on real data and compare its results to classical ARIMA approach as to a competitor. Since the model parameters have clear interpretation, we also illustrate how, e.g., their inter-seasonal stability can be tested. We conclude with an outlook to future developments oriented to construction of models allowing for practically desirable smooth transition between data observed with different frequencies and with a short discussion of technical problems that such a goal brings.

Fear of driving license withdrawal in patients with insulin-treated diabetes mellitus negatively influences their decision to report severe hypoglycemic events to physicians

Background Under current European Union legislation, two severe hypoglycemic events within 12 months is grounds for driving license withdrawal. The aim of the study reported here was to determine whether fear of such a withdrawal could lead to patients concealing severe hypoglycemia from physicians, which could negatively impact further treatment decisions. Methods A total of 663 patients with insulin-treated diabetes were anonymously surveyed about whether they would conceal severe hypoglycemic events from their physicians, if revealing them could result in driving license withdrawal. This investigation utilized an adapted and expanded questionnaire by Graveling et al. Results Of all diabetic patients surveyed, 26.17% would most likely not report hypoglycemia, and 25.86% were undecided. In a group of patients with type 1 diabetes, 31.83% would likely not report hypoglycemic events, and 25.06% were undecided. The patients least likely to report severe hypoglycemic events were those who indicated that vehicles were partly essential for work, and who also had more than two hypoglycemic events monthly. Conclusion A considerable percentage of diabetic patients would likely conceal severe hypoglycemic events from their physicians due to fear of driving license withdrawal. Patient failure to report severe hypoglycemic events can potentially lead to physicians being misinformed regarding the patient’s condition, which could lead to inadequate monitoring and treatment.