Margaret Mary McConnell
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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The Manchester School | 2002
Stephen G. Cecchetti; Margaret Mary McConnell; Gabriel Perez-Quiros
This paper explores two aspects of the conduct of monetary policy under a monetary union. First, even if the preferences of policymakers over inflation and output variability are identical across member countries, differences in economic structure will mean different desired policy responses to even a common shock. Second, policymakers may be forced to make important concessions in their preferences over inflation and output variability. To examine these issues, in this paper we estimate the objective functions that the European national central banks were implicitly maximizing over the 15 or so years prior to monetary union, as well as the slopes of the inflation-output variability trade-off in each country. While the slopes of the trade-offs vary dramatically across countries, the objective functions are quite similar, with most countries having weights in excess of three-quarters on inflation variability and less than one-quarter on output variability. Our findings suggest that the concessions (in terms of preferences over output and inflation variability) that current inflation-targeting countries such as the UK and Sweden would have to make on accession to the European Monetary Union (EMU) are likely to be minimal. On the other hand, the differences in economic structure across the Eurosystem countries might make it difficult to formulate a common policy even in the face of common goals, suggesting that there may still be significant costs to joining for countries currently outside the EMU.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance | 1998
Margaret Mary McConnell
The weekly numbers on initial claims for unemployment insurance convey key information about the labor market. But how reliable are claims in predicting changes in the much anticipated monthly employment report? According to a simple forecasting model, claims consistently send an accurate signal about employment during recessions but not during expansions.
The American Economic Review | 2000
Margaret Mary McConnell; Gabriel Perez-Quiros
Economic and Policy Review | 2005
James A. Kahn; Margaret Mary McConnell; Gabriel Perez-Quiros
Current Issues in Economics and Finance | 1999
Margaret Mary McConnell; Patricia C. Mosser; Gabriel Perez Quiros
Archive | 2000
James A. Kahn; Margaret Mary McConnell; Gabriel Perez-Quiros
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic policy review | 2002
James A. Kahn; Margaret Mary McConnell; Gabriel Perez-Quiros
Current Issues in Economics and Finance | 2005
Erica L. Groshen; Margaret Mary McConnell
Current Issues in Economics and Finance | 2005
Margaret Mary McConnell; Richard W. Peach; Alex Al-Haschimi
Current Issues in Economics and Finance | 2005
James A. Kahn; Margaret Mary McConnell