Margaret Urban

Cervical carcinoma and reproductive factors: Collaborative reanalysis of individual data on 16,563 women with cervical carcinoma and 33,542 women without cervical carcinoma from 25 epidemiological studies.

The International Collaboration of Epidemiological Studies of Cervical Cancer has combined individual data on 11,161 women with invasive carcinoma, 5,402 women with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)3/carcinoma in situ and 33,542 women without cervical carcinoma from 25 epidemiological studies. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of cervical carcinoma in relation to number of full‐term pregnancies, and age at first full‐term pregnancy, were calculated conditioning by study, age, lifetime number of sexual partners and age at first sexual intercourse. Number of full‐term pregnancies was associated with a risk of invasive cervical carcinoma. After controlling for age at first full‐term pregnancy, the RR for invasive cervical carcinoma among parous women was 1.76 (95% CI: 1.53–2.02) for ≥≥7 full‐term pregnancies compared with 1–2. For CIN3/carcinoma in situ, no significant trend was found with increasing number of births after controlling for age at first full‐term pregnancy among parous women. Early age at first full‐term pregnancy was also associated with risk of both invasive cervical carcinoma and CIN3/carcinoma in situ. After controlling for number of full‐term pregnancies, the RR for first full‐term pregnancy at age <17 years compared with ≥≥25 years was 1.77 (95% CI: 1.42–2.23) for invasive cervical carcinoma, and 1.78 (95% CI: 1.26–2.51) for CIN3/carcinoma in situ. Results were similar in analyses restricted to high‐risk human papilloma virus (HPV)‐positive cases and controls. No relationship was found between cervical HPV positivity and number of full‐term pregnancies, or age at first full‐term pregnancy among controls. Differences in reproductive habits may have contributed to differences in cervical cancer incidence between developed and developing countries.

Tobacco attributable deaths in South Africa

Background: In mid 1998, a question “Was the deceased a smoker five years ago?” was introduced on the newly revised South African death notification form. Design: A total of 16 230 new death notification forms from 1998 have been coded, and comparison of the prevalence of smoking among those who died of different causes was used to estimate, by case–control comparisons, tobacco attributed mortality in South Africa. Cases comprised deaths from causes known (from other studies) to be causally associated with smoking, and controls comprised deaths from medical conditions expected to be unrelated to smoking. Those who died from external causes, and from diseases strongly related to alcohol consumption, were excluded. Subjects: Reports were available from 5340 deceased adults (age 25+), whose smoking status was given by a family member. Results: Significantly increased risks were found for deaths from tuberculosis (odds ratio (OR) 1.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23 to 2.11), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.9 to 3.4), lung cancer (OR 4.8, 95% CI 2.9 to 8.0), other upper aerodigestive cancer (OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.9 to 4.9) and ischaemic heart disease (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.3). Conclusion: If smokers had the same death rate as non-smokers, 58% of lung cancer deaths, 37% of COPD deaths, 20% of tuberculosis deaths, and 23% of vascular deaths would have been avoided. About 8% of all adult deaths in South Africa (more than 20 000 deaths a year) were caused by smoking.

The spectrum of human immunodeficiency virus-associated cancers in a South African black population: results from a case-control study, 1995-2004

The effect of the evolving HIV epidemic on cancer has been sparsely documented in Africa. We report results on the risk of cancer associated with HIV‐1 infection using data from an ongoing study. A case–control analysis was used to estimate the relative risk (odds ratio, OR) of cancer types known to be AIDS defining: Kaposis sarcoma (n = 333), non‐Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL, n = 223) and cancers of the cervix (n = 1,586), and 11 cancer types possibly associated with HIV infection: Hodgkin lymphoma (n = 154), cancers of other anogenital organs (n = 157), squamous cell cancer of the skin (SCC, n = 70), oral cavity and pharynx (n = 319), liver (n = 83), stomach (n = 142), leukemia (n = 323), melanoma (n = 53), sarcomas other than Kaposis (n = 93), myeloma (n = 189) and lung cancer (n = 363). The comparison group comprised 3,717 subjects with all other cancer types and 682 subjects with vascular disease. ORs were adjusted for age, sex (except cervical cancer), year of diagnosis, education and number of sexual partners. Significantly increased risks associated with HIV‐1 infection were found for HIV/AIDS associated Kaposis sarcoma (OR = 47.1, 95% CI = 31.9–69.8), NHL (OR = 5.9, 95% CI = 4.3–8.1) and cancer of the cervix (OR = 1.6, 95% CI = 1.3–2.0); Hodgkins disease (OR = 1.6, 95% CI = 1.0–2.7), cancers of anogenital organs other than the cervix (OR = 2.2; 95% CI = 1.4–3.3) and SCC (OR = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.4–4.9) were also significantly increased. No significant associations were found between HIV and any of the other cancers examined. Risks for HIV‐related cancers are consistent with previous studies in Africa, and are lower when compared to those observed in developed countries.

Risk factors for oesophageal, lung, oral and laryngeal cancers in black South Africans.

The authors used data collected from 1995 to 1999, from an on-going cancer case–control study in greater Johannesburg, to estimate the importance of tobacco and alcohol consumption and other suspected risk factors with respect to cancer of the oesophagus (267 men and 138 women), lung (105 men and 41 women), oral cavity (87 men and 37 women), and larynx (51 men). Cancers not associated with tobacco or alcohol consumption were used as controls (804 men and 1370 women). Tobacco smoking was found to be the major risk factor for all of these cancers with odds ratios ranging from 2.6 (95% CI 1.5–4.5) for oesophageal cancer in female ex-smokers to 50.9 (95% CI 12.6–204.6) for lung cancer in women, and 23.9 (95% CI 9.5–60.3) for lung cancer and 23.6 (95% CI 4.6–121.2) for laryngeal cancer in men who smoked 15 or more grams of tobacco a day. This is the first time an association between smoking and oral and laryngeal cancers has been shown in sub-Saharan Africa. Long-term residence in the Transkei region in the southeast of the country continues to be a risk factor for oesophageal cancer, especially in women (odds ratio=14.7, 95% CI 4.7–46.0), possibly due to nutritional factors. There was a slight increase in lung cancer (odds ratio=2.9, 95% CI 1.1–7.5) in men working in ‘potentially noxious’ industries. ‘Frequent’ alcohol consumption, on its own, caused a marginally elevated risk for oesophageal cancer (odds ratio=1.7, 95% CI 1.0–2.9, for women and odds ratio=1.8, 95% CI 1.2–2.8, for men). The risks for oesophageal cancer in relation to alcohol consumption increased significantly in male and female smokers (odds ratio=4.7, 95% CI=2.8–7.9 in males and odds ratio=4.8, 95% CI 3.2–6.1 in females). The above results are broadly in line with international findings.

Injectable and oral contraceptive use and cancers of the breast, cervix, ovary, and endometrium in black South African women: case-control study.

A case-control study conducted in South Africa provides new estimates of the risk of specific cancers of the female reproductive system associated with use of injectable and oral contraceptives.

InterSCOPE Study: Associations Between Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Human Papillomavirus Serological Markers

BACKGROUND The role of human papillomavirus (HPV) in the causation of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma is unclear. We examined the associations between esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and 28 centrally measured HPV serological markers in serum from six existing case-control studies conducted in regions with differing background risks of esophageal cancer. METHODS We used centralized multiplex serology to test serum samples from 1561 case subjects and 2502 control subjects from six case-control studies for antibodies to the major HPV capsid protein (L1) and/or the early proteins E6 and/or E7 of eight high-risk, two low-risk, and four cutaneous HPV types. Study-specific odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using conditional logistic regression with adjustment for smoking, alcohol consumption, and other potential confounders. Pooled odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using either a linear mixed-effects approach or a joint fixed-effects approach. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS We found statistically significant associations between esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and antibodies to E6 for HPV16 (OR = 1.89, 95% CI = 1.09 to 3.29, P = .023) and HPV6 (OR = 2.53, 95% CI = 1.51 to 4.25, P < .001) but not for other tested HPV types. There were no statistically significant associations between esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and antibodies to E7 for any of the tested HPV types. Simultaneous seropositivity for HPV16 E6 and E7 was rare (four case subjects, two control subjects; OR = 5.57, 95% CI = 0.90 to 34.35; P = .064). We also found statistically significant associations between esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and capsid antibodies for the high-risk mucosal type HPV33 L1 (OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.00 to 1.69; P = .047) and the low-risk mucosal types HPV6 (OR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.05 to 1.42; P = .010) and HPV11 (OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.09 to 1.56, P = .0036). CONCLUSIONS We found limited serological evidence of an association between esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and HPV in the populations studied. Although HPV does not appear to be an important risk factor for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, we cannot exclude the possibility that certain HPV types may be involved in a small subset of cancers.

Antibodies against six human herpesviruses in relation to seven cancers in black South Africans: a case control study.

BackgroundInfections with certain human herpesviruses have been established as risk factors for some cancer types. For example, Epstein-Barr Virus is considered a cause of Burkitts lymphoma and other immunosuppression related lymphomas, Hodgkin lymphoma, and nasopharyngeal cancer. Several other human herpesviruses have been linked to cancers but the totality of evidence is inconclusive.MethodsWe conducted a systematic sub-study from within an ongoing case control study of adult black South Africans to investigate the relationship between antibodies to six human herpesviruses and seven cancer groups that may be caused by infectious agents. Subjects had incident cancers of the oral cavity(n = 88), the cervix(n = 53), the prostate(n = 66), Hodgkin lymphoma(n = 83), non-Hodgkin lymphoma(n = 80), multiple myeloma(n = 94) or leukaemia(n = 203). For comparison, patients with other cancers(n = 95) or cardiovascular disease(n = 101) were randomly selected from within the study. Patients were interviewed and their blood was tested for IgG antibodies against HSV-1, HSV-2, VZV, EBV-EBNA, CMV and HHV-6 using enzyme linked immunosorbent assays. Because these viruses are highly prevalent in this population, optical density results from the assays were used as an indirect, quantitative measure of antibody level.ResultsThere was significant variation in the mean log antibody measures for HSV-2, VZV, CMV and HHV-6 between the disease groups. However, none of the specific cancer groups had significantly higher mean log antibody measures for any of the viruses compared to either control group. In a more detailed examination of seven associations between cancers and herpesviruses for which there had been prior reports, two statistically significant associations were found: a decreasing risk of myeloid leukaemia and an increasing risk of oral cancer with increasing tertiles of antibodies against HHV-6 compared to all other patients (p-trend = 0.03 and 0.02, respectively). Odds ratios for the top tertile compared to the bottom tertile were 0.58 (95%CI 0.3 – 1.0) for myeloid leukaemia and 2.21 (95% CI 1.1 – 4.3) for oral cancer.ConclusionIn this population, using these tests for IgG, neither mean antibody measure nor high antibody measure against human herpesviruses 1–6 was strongly associated with any of the seven cancer groups. However, we may not have had sufficient power to detect weak associations or associations with a sub-type of cancer if they were present.

Mucosal Alpha-Papillomaviruses are not associated with Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinomas: Lack of Mechanistic Evidence from South Africa, China and Iran and from a World-Wide Meta-Analysis.

Epidemiological and mechanistic evidence on the causative role of human papillomaviruses (HPV) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is unclear. We retrieved alcohol‐ and formalin‐fixed paraffin‐embedded ESCC tissues from 133 patients seropositive for antibodies against HPV early proteins, from high‐incidence ESCC regions: South Africa, China and Iran. With rigorous care to prevent nucleic acid contamination, we analyzed these tissues for the presence of 51 mucosotropic human alpha‐papillomaviruses by two sensitive, broad‐spectrum genotyping methods, and for the markers of HPV‐transformed phenotype: (i) HPV16/18 viral loads by quantitative real‐time PCR, (ii) type‐specific viral mRNA by E6*I/E6 full‐length RT‐PCR assays and (iii) expression of cellular protein p16INK4a. Of 118 analyzable ESCC tissues, 10 (8%) were positive for DNA of HPV types: 16 (4 tumors); 33, 35, 45 (1 tumor each); 11 (2 tumors) and 16, 70 double infection (1 tumor). Inconsistent HPV DNA+ findings by two genotyping methods and negativity in qPCR indicated very low viral loads. A single HPV16 DNA+ tumor additionally harbored HPV16 E6*I mRNA but was p16INK4a negative (HPV16 E1 seropositive patient). Another HPV16 DNA+ tumor from an HPV16 E6 seropositive patient showed p16INK4a upregulation but no HPV16 mRNA. In the tumor tissues of these serologically preselected ESCC patients, we did not find consistent presence of HPV DNA, HPV mRNA or p16INK4a upregulation. These results were supported by a meta‐analysis of 14 other similar studies regarding HPV‐transformation of ESCC. Our study does not support the etiological role of the 51 analyzed mucosotropic HPV types in the ESCC carcinogenesis.

Risk factors for high anti-HHV-8 antibody titers (≥1:51,200) in black, HIV-1 negative South African cancer patients: a case control study

BackgroundInfection with human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8), also known as Kaposis sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV), is the necessary causal agent in the development of Kaposis sarcoma (KS). Infection with HIV-1, male gender and older age all increase risk for KS. However, the geographic distribution of HHV-8 and KS both prior to the HIV/AIDS epidemic and with HIV/AIDS suggest the presence of an additional co-factor in the development of KS.MethodsBetween January 1994 and October 1997, we interviewed 2576 black in-patients with cancer in Johannesburg and Soweto, South Africa. Blood was tested for antibodies against HIV-1 and HHV-8 and the study was restricted to 2191 HIV-1 negative patients. Antibodies against the latent nuclear antigen of HHV-8 encoded by orf73 were detected with an indirect immunofluorescence assay. We examined the relationship between high anti-HHV-8 antibody titers (≥1:51,200) and sociodemographic and behavioral factors using unconditional logistic regression models. Variables that were significant at p = 0.10 were included in multivariate analysis.ResultsOf the 2191 HIV-1 negative patients who did not have Kaposis sarcoma, 854 (39.0%) were positive for antibodies against HHV-8 according to the immunofluorescent assay. Among those seropositive for HHV-8, 530 (62.1%) had low titers (1:200), 227 (26.6%) had medium titers (1:51,200) and 97 (11.4%) had highest titers (1:204,800). Among the 2191 HIV-1 negative patients, the prevalence of high anti-HHV-8 antibody titers (≥1:51,200) was independently associated with increasing age (ptrend = 0.04), having a marital status of separated or divorced (p = 0.003), using wood, coal or charcoal as fuel for cooking 20 years ago instead of electricity (p = 0.02) and consuming traditional maize beer more than one time a week (p = 0.02; p-trend for increasing consumption = 0.05) although this may be due to chance given the large number of predictors considered in this analysis.ConclusionsAmong HIV-negative subjects, patients with high anti-HHV-8 antibody titers are characterized by older age. Other associations that may be factors in the development of high anti-HHV-8 titers include exposure to poverty or a low socioeconomic status environment and consumption of traditional maize beer. The relationship between these variables and high anti-HHV-8 titers requires further, prospective study.

Erratum to “Prostate Cancer in South Africa: Pathology Based National Cancer Registry Data (1986–2006) and Mortality Rates (1997–2009)”

Prostate cancer is one of the most common male cancers globally; however little is known about prostate cancer in Africa. Incidence data for prostate cancer in South Africa (SA) from the pathology based National Cancer Registry (1986–2006) and data on mortality (1997–2009) from Statistics SA were analysed. World standard population denominators were used to calculate age specific incidence and mortality rates (ASIR and ASMR) using the direct method. Prostate cancer was the most common male cancer in all SA population groups (excluding basal cell carcinoma). There are large disparities in the ASIR between black, white, coloured, and Asian/Indian populations: 19, 65, 46, and 19 per 100 000, respectively, and ASMR was 11, 7, 52, and 6 per 100 000, respectively. Prostate cancer was the second leading cause of cancer death, accounting for around 13% of male deaths from a cancer. The average age at diagnosis was 68 years and 74 years at death. For SA the ASIR increased from 16.8 in 1986 to 30.8 in 2006, while the ASMR increased from 12.3 in 1997 to 16.7 in 2009. There has been a steady increase of incidence and mortality from prostate cancer in SA.