Margit Eero

Multi-decadal responses of a cod (Gadus morhua) population to human-induced trophic changes, fishing, and climate

Understanding how human impacts have interacted with natural variability to affect populations and ecosystems is required for sustainable management and conservation. The Baltic Sea is one of the few large marine ecosystems worldwide where the relative contribution of several key forcings to changes in fish populations can be analyzed with empirical data. In this study we investigate how climate variability and multiple human impacts (fishing, marine mammal hunting, eutrophication) have affected multi-decadal scale dynamics of cod in the Baltic Sea during the 20th century. We document significant climate-driven variations in cod recruitment production at multi-annual timescales, which had major impacts on population dynamics and the yields to commercial fisheries. We also quantify the roles of marine mammal predation, eutrophication, and exploitation on the development of the cod population using simulation analyses, and show how the intensity of these forcings differed over time. In the early decades of the 20th century, marine mammal predation and nutrient availability were the main limiting factors; exploitation of cod was still relatively low. During the 1940s and subsequent decades, exploitation increased and became a dominant forcing on the population. Eutrophication had a relatively minor positive influence on cod biomass until the 1980s. The largest increase in cod biomass occurred during the late 1970s, following a long period of hydrographically related above-average cod productivity coupled to a temporary reduction in fishing pressure. The Baltic cod example demonstrates how combinations of different forcings can have synergistic effects and consequently dramatic impacts on population dynamics. Our results highlight the potential and limitations of human manipulations to influence predator species and show that sustainable management can only be achieved by considering both anthropogenic and naturally varying processes in a common framework.

Methodological Challenges in Assessing the Environmental Status of a Marine Ecosystem: Case Study of the Baltic Sea

Assessments of the environmental status of marine ecosystems are increasingly needed to inform management decisions and regulate human pressures to meet the objectives of environmental policies. This paper addresses some generic methodological challenges and related uncertainties involved in marine ecosystem assessment, using the central Baltic Sea as a case study. The objectives of good environmental status of the Baltic Sea are largely focusing on biodiversity, eutrophication and hazardous substances. In this paper, we conduct comparative evaluations of the status of these three segments, by applying different methodological approaches. Our analyses indicate that the assessment results are sensitive to a selection of indicators for ecological quality objectives that are affected by a broad spectrum of human activities and natural processes (biodiversity), less so for objectives that are influenced by a relatively narrow array of drivers (eutrophications, hazardous substances). The choice of indicator aggregation rule appeared to be of essential importance for assessment results for all three segments, whereas the hierarchical structure of indicators had only a minor influence. Trend-based assessment was shown to be a useful supplement to reference-based evaluation, being independent of the problems related to defining reference values and indicator aggregation methodologies. Results of this study will help in setting priorities for future efforts to improve environmental assessments in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere, and to ensure the transparency of the assessment procedure.

Could Seals Prevent Cod Recovery in the Baltic Sea

Fish populations are increasingly affected by multiple human and natural impacts including exploitation, eutrophication, habitat alteration and climate change. As a result many collapsed populations may have to recover in ecosystems whose structure and functioning differ from those in which they were formerly productive and supported sustainable fisheries. Here we investigate how a cod (Gadus morhua) population in the Baltic Sea whose biomass was reduced due to a combination of high exploitation and deteriorating environmental conditions might recover and develop in the 21st century in an ecosystem that likely will change due to both the already started recovery of a cod predator, the grey seal Halichoerus grypus, and projected climate impacts. Simulation modelling, assuming increased seal predation, fishing levels consistent with management plan targets and stable salinity, shows that the cod population could reach high levels well above the long-term average. Scenarios with similar seal and fishing levels but with 15% lower salinity suggest that the Baltic will still be able to support a cod population which can sustain a fishery, but biomass and yields will be lower. At present knowledge of cod and seal interactions, seal predation was found to have much lower impact on cod recovery, compared to the effects of exploitation and salinity. These results suggest that dual management objectives (recovery of both seal and cod populations) are realistic but success in achieving these goals will also depend on how climate change affects cod recruitment.

Effects of changes in stock productivity and mixing on sustainable fishing and economic viability

viability DTU Orbit (07/11/2019) Effects of changes in stock productivity and mixing on sustainable fishing and economic viability Within the new FMSY European paradigm, this paper shows how a combination of changes in fish stock mixing, nonstationarity in productivity, and constraints on unit stock concepts undermine the effective management of fisheries, especially when management reference points are not adjusted accordingly. Recent changes in stock structures, conditions and stock mixing between eastern and western Baltic cod can jeopardize the reliability of stock assessments and of the fishery economy. We modelled how different management, individual vessel decision-making, and stock growth and mixing scenarios have induced alternative individual vessel spatial effort allocation and economic performance by affecting fishing costs and by changing the relative stock abundance and size distribution. Stock mixing heavily influences profit and stock abundance for stocks that have experienced increased fishing mortality (F) levels. Western cod F has increased from a higher total allowed catches (TAC) advised in the medium-term due to the westward migration of eastern cod while eastern cod F has increased from reduced growth in the east. Greater pressures on western cod and decreased eastern cod growth and conditions greatly reduce the overall cod spawning stock biomass, thus changing the landing size composition and associated fishery profits. As a cumulative effect, fishing efforts are redirected towards western areas depending on management (quotas). However, total profits are less affected when traditional fishing opportunities and switching possibilities for other species and areas are maintained. Our evaluation indicates that current management mechanisms cannot correct for potential detrimental effects on cod fisheries when effort re-allocation changes landing origins. By investigating different economic starting conditions we further show that Baltic cod mis-management could have resulted in unintended unequal (skewed) impacts and serious consequences for certain fleets and fishing communities compared with others. Our management strategy evaluation is instrumental in capturing non-linear effects of different recommendations on sustainability and economic viability, and we show that fixed F-values management is likely not an attainable or sufficient goal in ensuring the sustainability and viability of fisheries and stocks given changing biological conditions

Testing spatial heterogeneity with stock assessment models

This paper describes a methodology that combines meta-population theory and stock assessment models to gain insights about spatial heterogeneity of the meta-population in an operational time frame. The methodology was tested with stochastic simulations for different degrees of connectivity between sub-populations and applied to two case studies, North Sea cod (Gadus morua) and Northeast Atlantic sardine (Sardina pilchardus). Considering that the biological components of a population can be partitioned into discrete spatial units, we extended this idea into a property of additivity of sub-population abundances. If the additivity results hold true for putative sub-populations, then assessment results based on sub-populations will provide information to develop and monitor the implementation of finer scale/local management. The simulation study confirmed that when sub-populations are independent and not too heterogeneous with regards to productivity, the sum of stock assessment model estimates of sub-populations’ SSB is similar to the SSB estimates of the meta-population. It also showed that a strong diffusion process can be detected and that the stronger the connection between SSB and recruitment, the better the diffusion process will be detected. On the other hand it showed that weak to moderate diffusion processes are not easy to identify and large differences between sub-populations productivities may be confounded with weak diffusion processes. The application to North Sea cod and Atlantic sardine exemplified how much insight can be gained. In both cases the results obtained were sufficiently robust to support the regional analysis.

Faster or slower: has growth of eastern Baltic cod changed?

ABSTRACT Recent environmental changes have influenced the ecology and biology of eastern Baltic cod. Declining somatic condition, maturation at smaller size and restricted size distribution of the population suggest that growth rates have decreased between the early 2000s and the 2010s. Extensive age estimation problems have until now precluded testing of this hypothesis. This study presents evidence for a decrease in somatic growth rate of Baltic cod. Temporal patterns of growth, condition and maturation were analysed based on two complementary analyses: length frequency mode progression derived from DATRAS bottom trawl survey data and known-age samples, where size at age was back-calculated from daily otolith growth patterns. In the known-age samples, growth was positively related to somatic condition at capture with maturity dependent differences. Immature individuals had experienced significantly lower growth and were in lower condition at capture than mature individuals. Growth rates in the known-age samples were estimated at 9.5, 7.8 and 5.7 cm per year for age classes 1, 2 and 3 respectively. Growth between age 2 and 3 decreased significantly from 8.8 cm in the 1997 year class to 7.6 cm in the 2010 year class. While the 2001 and 2004 known-age samples were representative for the population, the 2013 sample was biased towards individuals with a higher condition and growth. Complementary length frequency analysis following the length mode of fish from age 2 to age 3 confirmed growth estimates from the early 2000s, while suggesting a 37.5% lower growth in 2013 compared with 2005.