Margreth Keiler

Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework

The paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and different dimensions that need to be addressed when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural hazards and climate change. The approach underlines that the key factors of such a common framework are related to the exposure of a society or system to a hazard or stressor, the susceptibility of the system or community exposed, and its resilience and adaptive capacity. Additionally, it underlines the necessity to consider key factors and multiple thematic dimensions when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural and socio-natural hazards. In this regard, it shows key linkages between the different concepts used within the disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) research. Further, it helps to illustrate the strong relationships between different concepts used in DRM and CCA. The framework is also a tool for communicating complexity and stresses the need for societal change in order to reduce risk and to promote adaptation. With regard to this, the policy relevance of the framework and first results of its application are outlined. Overall, the framework presented enhances the discussion on how to frame and link vulnerability, disaster risk, risk management and adaptation concepts.

Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review

Many areas of the world are prone to several natural hazards, and effective risk reduction is only possible if all relevant threats are considered and analyzed. However, in contrast to single-hazard analyses, the examination of multiple hazards poses a range of additional challenges due to the differing characteristics of processes. This refers to the assessment of the hazard level, as well as to the vulnerability toward distinct processes, and to the arising risk level. As comparability of the single-hazard results is strongly needed, an equivalent approach has to be chosen that allows to estimate the overall hazard and consequent risk level as well as to rank threats. In addition, the visualization of a range of natural hazards or risks is a challenging task since the high quantity of information has to be depicted in a way that allows for easy and clear interpretation. The aim of this contribution is to give an outline of the challenges each step of a multi-hazard (risk) analysis poses and to present current studies and approaches that face these difficulties.

Climate change and geomorphological hazards in the eastern European Alps

Climate and environmental changes associated with anthropogenic global warming are being increasingly identified in the European Alps, as seen by changes in long-term high-alpine temperature, precipitation, glacier cover and permafrost. In turn, these changes impact on land-surface stability, and lead to increased frequency and magnitude of natural mountain hazards, including rock falls, debris flows, landslides, avalanches and floods. These hazards also impact on infrastructure, and socio-economic and cultural activities in mountain regions. This paper presents two case studies (2003 heatwave, 2005 floods) that demonstrate some of the interlinkages between physical processes and human activity in climatically sensitive alpine regions that are responding to ongoing climate change. Based on this evidence, we outline future implications of climate change on mountain environments and its impact on hazards and hazard management in paraglacial mountain systems.

Improvement of vulnerability curves using data from extreme events: debris flow event in South Tyrol

Alpine hazards such as debris flow, floods, snow avalanches, rock falls, and landslides pose a significant threat to local communities. The assessment of the vulnerability of the built environment to these hazards in the context of risk analysis is a topic that is growing in importance due to global environmental change impacts as well as socio-economic changes. Hence, the vulnerability is essential for the development of efficient risk reduction strategies. In this contribution, a methodology for the development of a vulnerability curve as a function of the intensity of the process and the degree of loss is presented. After some modifications, this methodology can also be used for other types of hazards in the future. The curve can be a valuable tool in the hands of local authorities, emergency and disaster planners since it can assist decision making and cost–benefit analysis of structural protection measures by assessing the potential cost of future events. The developed methodology is applied in two villages (Gand and Ennewasser) located in Martell valley, South Tyrol, Italy. In the case study area, buildings and infrastructure suffered significant damages following a debris flow event in August 1987. The event caused extensive damage and was very well documented. The documented data were used to create a vulnerability curve that shows the degree of loss corresponding to different process intensities. The resulting curve can be later used in order to assess the potential economic loss of future events. Although the validation process demonstrated the reliability of the results, a new damage assessment documentation is being recommended and presented. This documentation might improve the quality of the data and the reliability of the curve. The presented research has been developed in the European FP7 project MOVE (Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe).

Loss estimation for landslides in mountain areas - An integrated toolbox for vulnerability assessment and damage documentation

Global environmental change includes changes in a wide range of global scale phenomena, which are expected to affect a number of physical processes, as well as the vulnerability of the communities that will experience their impact. Decision-makers are in need of tools that will enable them to assess the loss of such processes under different future scenarios and to design risk reduction strategies. In this paper, a tool is presented that can be used by a range of end-users (e.g. local authorities, decision makers, etc.) for the assessment of the monetary loss from future landslide events, with a particular focus on torrential processes. The toolbox includes three functions: a) enhancement of the post-event damage data collection process, b) assessment of monetary loss of future events and c) continuous updating and improvement of an existing vulnerability curve by adding data of recent events. All functions of the tool are demonstrated through examples of its application. We developed a tool that will support decision making for disaster risk reduction strategies in mountain areas.The tool incorporates three functions: damage documentation, loss estimation and updating of the vulnerability curve.The tool was applied and tested in South Tyrol, Italy.Future developments (more elements at risks and hazards, uncertainty analysis, mobile applications) have been pointed out.

Spatiotemporal dynamics: the need for an innovative approach in mountain hazard risk management

Starting with an overview on losses due to mountain hazards in the Russian Federation and the European Alps, the question is raised why a substantial number of events still are recorded—despite considerable efforts in hazard mitigation and risk reduction. The main reason for this paradox lies in a missing dynamic risk-based approach, and it is shown that these dynamics have different roots: firstly, neglecting climate change and systems dynamics, the development of hazard scenarios is based on the static approach of design events. Secondly, due to economic development and population dynamics, the elements at risk exposed are subject to spatial and temporal changes. These issues are discussed with respect to temporal and spatial demands. As a result, it is shown how risk is dynamic on a long-term and short-term scale, which has to be acknowledged in the risk concept if this concept is targeted at a sustainable development of mountain regions. A conceptual model is presented that can be used for dynamical risk assessment, and it is shown by different management strategies how this model may be converted into practice. Furthermore, the interconnectedness and interaction between hazard and risk are addressed in order to enhance prevention, the level of protection and the degree of preparedness.

Natural Hazard Management from a Coevolutionary Perspective: Exposure and Policy Response in the European Alps

A coevolutionary perspective is adopted to understand the dynamics of exposure to mountain hazards in the European Alps. A spatially explicit, object-based temporal assessment of elements at risk to mountain hazards (river floods, torrential floods, and debris flows) in Austria and Switzerland is presented for the period from 1919 to 2012. The assessment is based on two different data sets: (1) hazard information adhering to legally binding land use planning restrictions and (2) information on building types combined from different national-level spatial data. We discuss these transdisciplinary dynamics and focus on economic, social, and institutional interdependencies and interactions between human and physical systems. Exposure changes in response to multiple drivers, including population growth and land use conflicts. The results show that whereas some regional assets are associated with a strong increase in exposure to hazards, others are characterized by a below-average level of exposure. The spatiotemporal results indicate relatively stable hot spots in the European Alps. These results coincide with the topography of the countries and with the respective range of economic activities and political settings. Furthermore, the differences between management approaches as a result of multiple institutional settings are discussed. A coevolutionary framework widens the explanatory power of multiple drivers to changes in exposure and risk and supports a shift from structural, security-based policies toward an integrated, risk-based natural hazard management system.

The influence of riparian vegetation cover on diffuse lateral sediment connectivity and biogeomorphic processes in a medium-sized agricultural catchment, Austria

Abstract Connectivity concepts are often used to describe the linkages between sediment sources and sinks within a catchment. Vegetation plays an important role as it influences surface roughness and the local capacity to store sediments and water. However, knowledge about the effects of riparian vegetation on lateral sediment connectivity as well as on the processes and factors that govern them is rare and presents an important research gap. This paper assesses the influence of riparian vegetation cover type on diffuse lateral sediment connectivity on valley floors and investigates biogeomorphic processes acting in forested riparian zones of a medium‐sized agricultural catchment. Governing processes and factors are assessed using ‐based overland flow pathway modelling and geomorphic field surveys together with multivariate statistics (principal component analysis, logistic regression modelling). The results reveal that diffuse lateral sediment connectivity is highly influenced by the respective type of riparian vegetation cover. Forested riparian zones significantly reduce sediment inputs and act as strong disconnectors between the catchment area and the river channel. Topographical features called root dams emerge from biogeomorphic processes in forested riparian zones and act as buffers that limit the connectivity between landscape compartments.

Geomorphological Hazards and Disaster Prevention: Review and future challenges in snow avalanche risk analysis

Background Snow avalanches pose a major threat to alpine communities because they affect safety in villages and on traffic routes. Therefore, dealing with avalanche danger has a long tradition in Alpine countries. In most countries, avalanches contribute only to a small degree to the overall risk of a country. For Switzerland, for example, avalanche risk represents only 2% of all risks (BABS, 2003). Snow avalanche formation, geomorphology and land use planning Snow avalanches are a type of fast-moving mass movement. They can also contain rocks, soil, vegetation or ice. Avalanche size is classified according to its destructive power (McClung and Schaerer, 2006). A medium-sized slab avalanche may involve 10,000 m 3 of snow, equivalent to a mass of about 2,000 tons (snow density 200 kg/m 3 ). Avalanche speeds vary between 50 and 200 km/h for large dry snow avalanches, whereas wet slides are denser and slower (20–100 km/h). If the avalanche path is steep, dry snow avalanches generate a powder cloud. There are different types of snow avalanches (Table 5.1), and in particular two types of release: loose snow avalanches and slab avalanches. Loose snow avalanches start from a point, in a relatively cohesionless surface layer of either dry or wet snow. Initial failure is analogous to the rotational slip of cohesionless sands or soil, but occurs within a small volume ( 3 ) in comparison to much larger initiation volumes in soil slides.

Geomorphology and Complexity – inseparably connected?

The connected use of the terms ‘geomorphology’ and ‘complex’ systems increased exponentially in recent years. Therefore, complexity in geomorphology is explored from different perspectives in this contribution to answer whether or not complexity is only a catchword or if complexity theory has made its way as a new paradigm into geomorphology. Firstly, a brief overview on general principles and frequently used terms is given, and the transfer of these ideas to geomorphologic research is described. Different interpretations of complexity in geomorphology (sensitivity, emergence, self-organisation, equilibrium) are then exemplified and the application of methods and approaches (fractals, power law, SOC, cellular automata models) are presented. The paper concludes with showing the high potential of complexity research in geomorphology and the related challenges.