Maria Ana Lugo

Inequality of opportunity and economic growth : a cross-country analysis

Income differences arise from many sources. While some kinds of inequality, caused by effort differences, might be associated with faster economic growth, other kinds, arising from unequal opportunities for investment, might be detrimental to economic progress. This study uses two new metadata sets, consisting of 118 household surveys and 134 Demographic and Health Surveys, to revisit the question of whether inequality is associated with economic growth and, in particular, to examine whether inequality of opportunity -- driven by circumstances at birth -- has a negative effect on subsequent growth. The results are suggestive but not robust: while overall income inequality is generally negatively associated with growth in the household survey sample, we find no evidence that this is due to the component associated with unequal opportunities. In the Demographic and Health Surveys sample, both overall wealth inequality and inequality of opportunity have a negative effect on growth in some of the preferred specifications, but the results are not robust to relatively minor changes. On balance, although the results are suggestive of a negative association between inequality and growth, the data do not permit robust conclusions as to whether inequality of opportunity is bad for growth.

Opportunity-Sensitive Poverty Measurement

This paper offers an axiomatic characterization of two classes of poverty measures that are sensitive to inequality of opportunity, one a strict subset of the other. The proposed indices are sensitive not only to income shortfalls from the poverty line, but also to differences in the opportunities faced by people with different predetermined characteristics, such as race or family background. Dominance conditions are established for each class of measures and a sub-family of scalar indices, based on a rank-dependent aggregation of type-specific poverty levels, is also introduced. In empirical analysis using household survey data from eighteen European countries in 2005, substantial differences in country rankings based on standard Foster-Greer-Thorbecke indices and on the new opportunity-sensitive indices are found. Cross-country differences in opportunity-sensitive poverty are decomposed into a level effect, a distribution effect, and a population composition effect.

Inequality of Opportunity and Economic Growth: How Much Can Cross-Country Regressions Really Tell Us?

Income differences arise from many sources. While some kinds of inequality, caused by differential rewards to effort, might be associated with faster economic growth, other kinds, arising from unequal opportunities for investment, might be detrimental to economic progress. This study uses two new datasets, consisting of 117 income and expenditure household surveys and 134 Demographic and Health Surveys, to revisit the relationship between total inequality and economic growth. In particular, we ask whether inequality of opportunity, driven by circumstances at birth, has a negative effect on subsequent growth. Using the income and expenditure micro dataset, we find that while both total income inequality and inequality of opportunity are negatively associated with growth, the coefficient estimates are insignificant. The evidence is similarly equivocal using the Demographic and Health Surveys data. On balance, the data do not provide support for the hypothesis that inequality of opportunity is bad for growth.

Chapter 1 Refining the basic needs approach: A multidimensional analysis of poverty in Latin America

Latin America has a longstanding tradition in multidimensional poverty measurement through the unsatisfied basic needs (UBN) approach. However, the method has been criticized on several grounds, including the selection of indicators, the implicit weighting scheme and the aggregation methodology, among others. The estimates by the UBN approach have traditionally been complemented (or replaced) with income poverty estimates. Under the premise that poverty is inherently multidimensional, in this chapter we propose three methodological refinements to the UBN approach. Using the proposed methodology we provide a set of comparable poverty estimates for six Latin American countries between 1992 and 2006.

The Incidence of Subsidies to Residential Public Services in Argentina: The Subsidy System in 2014 and Some Alternatives

More than a decade of energy and transport subsidies have weakened Argentina’s fiscal capacity. Following the 2001 crisis, public services tariffs were frozen in an attempt to offset the negative effects on households’ real purchasing power. However, these subsidies steadily increased over the years, particularly since 2006, becoming a significant fiscal burden. Though subsidies can be a tool to protect the poor, in Argentina they led to distortions and a large share have been absorbed by upper classes and non-residential consumers. This paper first analyzes the incidence of the 2014 system of residential federal subsidies to residential public services (defined as electricity, gas, water and transport) and then simulates the distributional impacts of alternative subsidy structures. Simulations on the electricity sector suggest that targeting consumption levels through a simple lifeline tariff is not sufficient to achieve a propoor incidence of subsidies. Instead, explicit targeting is necessary (though not sufficient) and needs to ensure comprehensive coverage of the poorest households. Similarly, on the transport sector show that the existing tariffs are not well-targeted, but that an expanded set of social programs could improve coverage of the poorest. Gas subsidy simulations showed that a social tariff would virtually eliminate the subsidy, suggesting that there is little overlap between the receipt of social programs and access to piped gas.

Is Uruguay More Resilient this Time? Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similar to the 2001/02 Argentine Crisis

The 2001/02 Argentine crisis had a profound impact on Uruguays economy. Uruguays gross domestic product shrank by 17.5 percent and the proportion of people living below the poverty line doubled in just two years. It took almost 10 years for the poverty rate to recover to its pre-crisis level. This paper uses a macro-micro simulation technique to simulate the impact of a similar crisis on the current Uruguayan economy. The simulation exercise suggests that Uruguay would now be in a better place to weather such a severe crisis. The impact on poverty would be considerably lower, inequality would not change significantly, and household incomes would be 8 percent lower than in the absence of a crisis (almost 9 percent lower for those households in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution). Young individuals, female-headed households, those living in Montevideo, and those who do not have complete secondary education are more vulnerable to falling into poverty were the crisis to strike.