Maria Blangiewicz

Specification of Dynamic Wage-Price Relations in Poland (1980-1991)

This paper focuses on the analysis of wage-price relationships during the period 1980–1991 in Poland. The dynamics of wage and price series under radical structural changes are examined, as well as the impact of earlier sharp price increases. The process of wages-to-prices adjustment both in the long- and short-term is analysed. The hypothesis that the introduction of economic reform (at the beginning of 1990) would result in a tendency towards the stabilization of real wages is investigated. This is done through integration and cointegration analysis of wage and price series with special attention being paid to the problems arising from theI(2) character of the variables investigated. The concept of polynomial cointegration is applied to formulate error correction terms for the short-run model of wages. The computations have been made using quarterly data. The results reflect an inhomogeneity of the period investigated, especially the effects of the introduction of economic reform at the beginning of 1990. The nonstationarity of real wages is confirmed, but not their tendency towards stabilization.

The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of LIBOR US Dollar Interest Rates

Using the monthly sampled data on LIBOR US dollar interest rates and maturities ranging from 1 to 12 months from 1995 to 2009 we provide with a number of tests of the expecta-tions hypothesis based on a 3-variable VAR allowing for a time-varying term premium. We find some evidence against the expectations hypothesis. The term premia appear to vary in time and the yield spread has a good predictive power, however the long rates under-react to current infor-mation about future short rates. Unexpected changes in holding period returns to large extent depend upon revisions to forecasts about future short rates and to small extent upon revisions to future term premia.

The EU Accession Rally: Some Cross-Country Simulation Results

Since the initial talks about the possible incorporation of the Central and East European countries into the European Union started in 19932there has been immense speculation on which countries should be incorporated earlier and which should join the Union later, what might be the optimal sequence of the Union enlargement and how strict should be the enlargement criteria. The literature of the subject concentrates mainly on the possibilities of particular countries to fulfil the so-called Maastricht criteria (see e.g. De Grauve (1998), Brada and Kutan (2001), Buch and Piazolo (2001), Rosati (2001)) and also on the legal and political obstacles and requirements.