María del Carmen Boado-Penas

Automatic Balance Mechanisms in Pay-as-You-Go Pension Systems

This paper shows the usefulness of the automatic balance mechanisms (ABMs) and explores the issue of introducing an ABM into the Spanish public contributory retirement pension system. We define the concept of the automatic balance mechanism and carry out an analysis of those existing in Sweden, Canada, Germany, Japan and Finland. We also present an indicator of the Spanish systems solvency which emerges from the actuarial balance sheet, and simulate the effect that certain changes in the parameters of the present system would have on solvency, showing the direction that could be taken if the mechanism were to be introduced in Spain. The main conclusion reached is that, given the systems situation of (in)solvency, the introduction of an automatic mechanism is highly recommended in order to set the system on the road to long-term financial solvency, neutralise the effects of ageing, changes in socio-economic conditions and the continuing increase in longevity, and to reduce populism in pension policy.

Compiling the Actuarial Balance for Pay-As-You-Go Pension Systems. Is It Better to Use the Hidden Asset or the Contribution Asset?

The aim of this article is twofold: to establish the connection between the ‘Contribution Asset’ (CA) and the ‘Hidden Asset’ (HA) and to determine whether using either of them to compile the Actuarial Balance (AB) sheet in the Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) pension system will provide a reliable solvency indicator. With these aims in mind, we develop a model based on those first put forward by Settergren and Mikula (2005) and Boado-Penas et al. (2008) to obtain the analytical properties of the CA and to confirm its soundness as a measure of the assets of a PAYG scheme. Our model also enables us to explore whether, and to what extent, the HA can be considered a second alternative measure of the assets for PAYG schemes. The main theoretical finding is that, despite their very different natures, the HA and the CA may nearly coincide at the limit when the interest rate of the financial market approaches the growth of the covered wage bill from above, but the HA supplies a solvency indicator which is not always consistent with the systems financial health.

Nonfinancial defined contribution pension schemes: is a survivor dividend necessary to make the system balanced?

The survivor dividend, at a specific age, is the portion of participants’ credited account balances that is distributed on a birth cohort basis from the account balances of participants who do not survive to retirement. This article develops a model to show whether it would be justified to include the survivor dividend in the calculation of affiliate pension balances. The main findings are that the survivor dividend has a strong financial basis which enables the macro contribution rate applied to be the same as the individual credited rate, and that including the survivor dividend in the calculation of the initial pension is not irrelevant because the initial pension could rise by up to 21.84%, depending on the mortality scenario used.

El balance actuarial del sistema de reparto. Modelo sueco frente a modelo EE.UU: posible aplicación al caso español

RESUMEN El objetivo de este trabajo es arrojar luz sobre los dos principales métodos que aplican las administraciones públicas de la Seguridad Social al formular el balance actuarial, realizando especial hincapié en sus enfoques metodológicos, aspectos actuariales aplicados y resultados más recientes con el fin de identificar sus diferencias y similitudes más notables. Asimismo, se intenta mostrar la conveniencia de incorporar, al sistema público de pensiones español, la obligatoriedad de elaborar un balance actuarial anual para mejorar su transparencia, solvencia, y facilitar el trabajo de las comisiones habilitadas con la finalidad de establecer las líneas de actuación y las reformas a introducir en el sistema de pensiones contributivo español. Los autores sugieren que la obligación de formular anualmente el balance actuarial reportaría múltiples ventajas: obligaría a los políticos españoles a renunciar al ejercicio del populismo en pensiones, los cotizantes y pensionistas tendrían una estimación fundada de cuál podría ser el grado de cumplimiento de las promesas que se les realizan respecto al pago de sus pensiones y además, las propuestas de reformas podrían ser valoradas con mayor fiabilidad.

Notional Defined Contribution Pension Schemes: Why Does Only Sweden Distribute the Survivor Dividend?

The aim of this paper is to analyse the role of the survivor dividend in notional defined contribution (NDC) pension schemes. At present, this feature can only be found in the Swedish defined contribution scheme. We develop a model that endorses the idea that the survivor dividend has a strong basis for enabling the NDC scheme to achieve financial equilibrium and that not including the dividend is a non-transparent way of compensating for increases in longevity and/or legacy costs from old pension systems. We also find that the average effect of the dividend remains unchanged for any constant annual rate of population growth, that contributors who reach retirement age always get a higher return than the scheme does, and that population growth enables cohorts with more years of contributions to benefit to a greater extent from the dividend effect.

Automatic balancing mechanisms for Notional Defined Contribution Accounts in the presence of uncertainty

The notional defined contribution model combines pay-as-you-go financing and a defined contribution pension formula. This paper aims to demonstrate the extent to which liquidity and solvency indicators are affected by fluctuations in economic and demographic conditions and to explore the introduction of an automatic balancing mechanism (ABM) into the pension scheme. We demonstrate that the introduction of an ABM reduces the volatility of the buffer fund and that, in most cases, the automatic mechanism that re-establishes solvency produces the highest value of the risk-adjusted notional factor.

Adequacy, Fairness and Sustainability of Pay-As-You-Go-Pension-Systems: Defined Benefit Versus Defined Contribution

There are three main challenges facing public pension systems. First, pension systems need to provide an adequate income for pensioners in the retirement phase. Second, participants wish a fair level of benefits in relation to the contributions paid. Last but no least, the pension system would need to be financially sustainable in the long run. In this paper, we analyse defined benefit versus defined contribution schemes in terms of adequacy, fairness and sustainability jointly. Also, risk sharing mechanisms, that involve changes in the key variables of the system, are designed to restore the financial sustainability at the same time that we study their consequences on the adequacy and fairness of the system.

Optimal strategies for long-term sustainability in PAYGO pension systems using control theory in a dynamic nonlinear framework

The aim of this paper is to design an automatic balancing mechanism, based on minimizing changes in the main variables that play a part in a Pay-As-YouGo (PAYGO) pension system (contribution rate, normal retirement age and indexation of pensions) using nonlinear programming. This mechanism identifies and applies an optimal path of these variables to a PAYGO system and absorbs fluctuations in longevity, fertility rates, life expectancy, salary growth or any other random events in a pension plan.

Models of the Actuarial Balance of the Pay-As-You-Go Pension System: A Review and Some Policy Recommendations

This paper reviews the two main methods used by government Social Security departments to draw up the so-called actuarial balance of the pay-as-you-go pension system, focusing especially on results, methodology and actuarial issues. The specific models studied are those in the United States, Japan and Sweden, and their main differences and similarities are highlighted. The authors make some specific policy recommendations that would be of interest to public finance economists, social security actuaries and policy makers, and they suggest that international organizations (ISSA, the World Bank, the OECD and others interested in public pension reform) could be supportive in developing and enforcing international accounting and actuarial valuation standards for pay-as-you-go pension systems.