Maria Enrica Virgillito

When More Flexibility Yields More Fragility: The Microfoundations of Keynesian Aggregate Unemployment

Wages are an element of cost crucially affecting the competitiveness of individual firms. But the wage bill is also a crucial element of aggregate demand. Hence it could be that more “flexible�? and fluid labour markets, while allowing for faster inter-firm reallocation of labour, may also render the whole economic system more fragile, more prone to recession, more volatile. In this work we investigate some conditions under which such a conjecture applies. The paper presents an agent-based model that investigates the effects of two “archetypes of capitalism�?, in terms of regimes of labour governance – defined by the mechanisms of wage determination, firing, labour protection and productivity gains sharing – upon (i) labour market regularities and (ii) macroeconomic dynamics (long-term rates of growth, GDP fluctuations, unemployment rates, inequality, etc..). The model is built upon the “Keynes meets Schumpeter�? family of models (Dosi et al., 2010), explicitly incorporating different microfounded labour market regimes. Our results show that seemingly more rigid labour markets and labour relations are conducive to coordination successes with higher and smoother growth.

Causes and Consequences of Hysteresis: Aggregate Demand, Productivity and Employment

In this work we develop an agent-based model where hysteresis in major macroeconomic variables (e.g. GDP, productivity, unemployment) emerges out of the decentralized interactions of heterogeneous firms and workers. Building upon the model in Dosi et al. (2016, 2017), we specify an endogenous process of accumulation of workers’ skills and a state-dependent process of entry, studying their hysteretic impacts. Indeed, hysteresis is ubiquitous. However, this is not due to market imperfections, but rather to the very functioning of decentralised economies characterised by coordination externalities and dynamic increasing returns. So, contrary to the insider-outsider hypothesis (Blanchard and Summers, 1986), the model does not support the findings that rigid industrial relations may foster hysteretic behaviour in aggregate unemployment. On the contrary, in line with the recent discussion in Ball et al. (2014), this contribution provides evidence that during severe downturns, and thus declining aggregate demand, phenomena like lower investment and innovation rates, skills deterioration, and declining entry dynamics are better candidates to explain long-run unemployment spells and lower output growth. In that, more rigid labour markets dampen hysteretic dynamics by supporting aggregate demand, thus making the economy more resilient.

Rise of the robots: technology and the threat of a jobless future

A blossoming debate on the effects of robotization upon both employment and inequality is now emerging among scholars in the Economics discipline. But it is markedly taking place among organization...

The Effects of Labour Market Reforms upon Unemployment and Income Inequalities: An Agent Based Model

This paper is meant to analyse the effects of labour market structural reforms by means of an agent-based model. Building on Dosi et al. (2016b) we introduce a policy regime change characterized by a set of structural reforms on the labour market, keeping constant the structure of the capital- and consumption-good markets. Confirming a recent IMF report (Jaumotte and Buitron, 2015), the model shows how labour market structural reforms reducing workers’ bargaining power and compressing wages tend to increase (i) unemployment, (ii) functional income inequality, and (iii) personal income inequality. We further undertake a global sensitivity analysis on key variables and parameters which confirms the robustness of our findings.