Maria Eugenia Ibarrarán

Extreme climate events and adaptation: an exploratory analysis of drought in Mexico.

Climate change is increasing the intensity of extreme weather events. Mexico is particularly prone to suffer at least two different types of these events: droughts and hurricanes. This paper focuses on the effects of an extended drought on the Mexican economy. Through a computable general equilibrium model, we simulate the impact of a drought that affects primarily agriculture, livestock, forestry, and hydropower generation. We look at the effects on the overall economy. We then simulate the effects of several adaptation strategies in (chiefly) the agricultural, forestry, and power sectors, and we arrive at some tentative yet significant conclusions. We find that the effects of such an event vary substantially by sector with moderate to severe overall impacts. Furthermore, we find that adaptation policies can only effect modest changes to the economic losses to be suffered.

Distributional Impacts of Climate Change and Disasters

Climate change tends to increase the frequency and intensity of weather-related disasters, which puts many people at risk. Economic, social and environmental impacts further increase vulnerability to disasters and tend to set back development, destroy livelihoods, and increase disparity nationally and worldwide. This book addresses the differential vulnerability of people and places, introducing concepts and methods for analysis and illustrating the impact on local, regional, national, and global scales.

Introduction: Distributional Effects of Climate Change – Social and Economic Implications

Climate change has global impacts relative to both its causes and its eff ects. These impacts, however, are not distributed evenly but can create dissimilar eff ects across diff erent latitudes, altitudes and even groups of people, within the same location. For example, some parts of the globe may be impacted by a large number of hurricanes, while others suff er from frequent episodes of drought. Other parts may be more prone to vector disease due to temperature rise or to land loss from sea level rise. Simultaneously, diff erent groups of people may be aff ected, to diff ering degrees, because the distribution of these eff ects combine with yet another important distinction – the coping capacity of diff erent countries, and of the individuals within those countries. Access to information is a key issue in preventing, and adapting to, current and expected impacts from climate change. There is wide variation in the real availability of such information to diff erent groups. Other key issues concern the ways in which stakeholders act on that information. Climate change tends to increase the frequency and the intensity of weather-related natural disasters. Depending on the location of populated areas, this puts many people at risk with respect to access to water, coastal fl ooding, disease and hunger. This can leave them with a more degraded environment. Economic, social and environmental impacts, in turn, further increase vulnerability to natural disasters and tend to set back development, destroy livelihoods (especially of the poor), and increase disparity both nationally and worldwide. Acknowledging and understanding these diff erences can lead to better adaptation processes for all. In this book we address the many aspects of the distributional issues resulting from climate change from a wide range of perspectives. In general, we discuss some issues at the international level, making reference to worldwide diff erences at a country level. We also explore the diff erent vulnerabilities that exist among countries and, fi nally, some at the country level. This enables us better to capture the nature of the distributional

Compounding Factors: Air Pollution and Climate Variability in Mexico City

In early 2016, Mexico City suffered from repeated severe episodes of high ozone concentrations. Tropospheric ozone is a secondary compound produced by precursors such as nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds. However, other conditions such as cloud coverage, solar radiation, humidity, wind speed, and temperature play a significant role on the rate at which ground-level ozone forms. During periods of low precipitation, that is, March through May 2016, Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) witnessed high concentrations of tropospheric ozone. We look at the correlation between the occurrence of El Nino events, meteorological conditions, and ground concentration of ozone. We also describe other features of MCMA that can contribute to explain this deterioration of air quality as well as discuss health and economic costs this may entail. We finally address some public policies that may help reduce low air quality in this and other metropolitan areas.