Maria I. Creatore

Age- and sex-related prevalence of diabetes mellitus among immigrants to Ontario, Canada

Background: The majority of immigrants to Canada originate from the developing world, where the most rapid increase in prevalence of diabetes mellitus is occurring. We undertook a population-based study involving immigrants to Ontario, Canada, to evaluate the distribution of risk for diabetes in this population. Methods: We used linked administrative health and immigration records to calculate age-specific and age-adjusted prevalence rates among men and women aged 20 years or older in 2005. We compared rates among 1 122 771 immigrants to Ontario by country and region of birth to rates among long-term residents of the province. We used logistic regression to identify and quantify risk factors for diabetes in the immigrant population. Results: After controlling for age, immigration category, level of education, level of income and time since arrival, we found that, as compared with immigrants from western Europe and North America, risk for diabetes was elevated among immigrants from South Asia (odds ratio [OR] for men 4.01, 95% CI 3.82–4.21; OR for women 3.22, 95% CI 3.07–3.37), Latin America and the Caribbean (OR for men 2.18, 95% CI 2.08–2.30; OR for women 2.40, 95% CI: 2.29–2.52), and sub-Saharan Africa (OR for men 2.31, 95% CI 2.17–2.45; OR for women 1.83, 95% CI 1.72–1.95). Increased risk became evident at an early age (35–49 years) and was equally high or higher among women as compared with men. Lower socio-economic status and greater time living in Canada were also associated with increased risk for diabetes. Interpretation: Recent immigrants, particularly women and immigrants of South Asian and African origin, are at high risk for diabetes compared with long-term residents of Ontario. This risk becomes evident at an early age, suggesting that effective programs for prevention of diabetes should be developed and targeted to immigrants in all age groups.

Assessment of the potential for international dissemination of Ebola virus via commercial air travel during the 2014 west African outbreak

Summary Background The WHO declared the 2014 west African Ebola epidemic a public health emergency of international concern in view of its potential for further international spread. Decision makers worldwide are in need of empirical data to inform and implement emergency response measures. Our aim was to assess the potential for Ebola virus to spread across international borders via commercial air travel and assess the relative efficiency of exit versus entry screening of travellers at commercial airports. Methods We analysed International Air Transport Association data for worldwide flight schedules between Sept 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2014, and historic traveller flight itinerary data from 2013 to describe expected global population movements via commercial air travel out of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Coupled with Ebola virus surveillance data, we modelled the expected number of internationally exported Ebola virus infections, the potential effect of air travel restrictions, and the efficiency of airport-based traveller screening at international ports of entry and exit. We deemed individuals initiating travel from any domestic or international airport within these three countries to have possible exposure to Ebola virus. We deemed all other travellers to have no significant risk of exposure to Ebola virus. Findings Based on epidemic conditions and international flight restrictions to and from Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone as of Sept 1, 2014 (reductions in passenger seats by 51% for Liberia, 66% for Guinea, and 85% for Sierra Leone), our model projects 2·8 travellers infected with Ebola virus departing the above three countries via commercial flights, on average, every month. 91 547 (64%) of all air travellers departing Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone had expected destinations in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Screening international travellers departing three airports would enable health assessments of all travellers at highest risk of exposure to Ebola virus infection. Interpretation Decision makers must carefully balance the potential harms from travel restrictions imposed on countries that have Ebola virus activity against any potential reductions in risk from Ebola virus importations. Exit screening of travellers at airports in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone would be the most efficient frontier at which to assess the health status of travellers at risk of Ebola virus exposure, however, this intervention might require international support to implement effectively. Funding Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Potential for Zika virus introduction and transmission in resource-limited countries in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region: a modelling study

BACKGROUND As the epidemic of Zika virus expands in the Americas, countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are becoming increasingly susceptible to the importation and possible local spread of the virus. To support public health readiness, we aim to identify regions and times where the potential health, economic, and social effects from Zika virus are greatest, focusing on resource-limited countries in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. METHODS Our model combined transportation network analysis, ecological modelling of mosquito occurrences, and vector competence for flavivirus transmission, using data from the International Air Transport Association, entomological observations from Zikas primary vector species, and climate conditions using WorldClim. We overlaid monthly flows of airline travellers arriving to Africa and the Asia-Pacific region from areas of the Americas suitable for year-round transmission of Zika virus with monthly maps of climatic suitability for mosquito-borne transmission of Zika virus within Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. FINDINGS An estimated 2·6 billion people live in areas of Africa and the Asia-Pacific region where the presence of competent mosquito vectors and suitable climatic conditions could support local transmission of Zika virus. Countries with large volumes of travellers arriving from Zika virus-affected areas of the Americas and large populations at risk of mosquito-borne Zika virus infection include India (67 422 travellers arriving per year; 1·2 billion residents in potential Zika transmission areas), China (238 415 travellers; 242 million residents), Indonesia (13 865 travellers; 197 million residents), Philippines (35 635 travellers; 70 million residents), and Thailand (29 241 travellers; 59 million residents). INTERPRETATION Many countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are vulnerable to Zika virus. Strategic use of available health and human resources is essential to prevent or mitigate the health, economic, and social consequences of Zika virus, especially in resource-limited countries. FUNDING Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Density, Destinations or Both? A Comparison of Measures of Walkability in Relation to Transportation Behaviors, Obesity and Diabetes in Toronto, Canada

The design of suburban communities encourages car dependency and discourages walking, characteristics that have been implicated in the rise of obesity. Walkability measures have been developed to capture these features of urban built environments. Our objective was to examine the individual and combined associations of residential density and the presence of walkable destinations, two of the most commonly used and potentially modifiable components of walkability measures, with transportation, overweight, obesity, and diabetes. We examined associations between a previously published walkability measure and transportation behaviors and health outcomes in Toronto, Canada, a city of 2.6 million people in 2011. Data sources included the Canada census, a transportation survey, a national health survey and a validated administrative diabetes database. We depicted interactions between residential density and the availability of walkable destinations graphically and examined them statistically using general linear modeling. Individuals living in more walkable areas were more than twice as likely to walk, bicycle or use public transit and were significantly less likely to drive or own a vehicle compared with those living in less walkable areas. Individuals in less walkable areas were up to one-third more likely to be obese or to have diabetes. Residential density and the availability of walkable destinations were each significantly associated with transportation and health outcomes. The combination of high levels of both measures was associated with the highest levels of walking or bicycling (p<0.0001) and public transit use (p<0.0026) and the lowest levels of automobile trips (p<0.0001), and diabetes prevalence (p<0.0001). We conclude that both residential density and the availability of walkable destinations are good measures of urban walkability and can be recommended for use by policy-makers, planners and public health officials. In our setting, the combination of both factors provided additional explanatory power.

Unwalkable Neighborhoods, Poverty, and the Risk of Diabetes Among Recent Immigrants to Canada Compared With Long-Term Residents

OBJECTIVE This study was designed to examine whether residents living in neighborhoods that are less conducive to walking or other physical activities are more likely to develop diabetes and, if so, whether recent immigrants are particularly susceptible to such effects. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study to assess the impact of neighborhood walkability on diabetes incidence among recent immigrants (n = 214,882) relative to long-term residents (n = 1,024,380). Adults aged 30–64 years who were free of diabetes and living in Toronto, Canada, on 31 March 2005 were identified from administrative health databases and followed until 31 March 2010 for the development of diabetes, using a validated algorithm. Neighborhood characteristics, including walkability and income, were derived from the Canadian Census and other sources. RESULTS Neighborhood walkability was a strong predictor of diabetes incidence independent of age and area income, particularly among recent immigrants (lowest [quintile 1 {Q1}] vs. highest [quintile 5 {Q5}] walkability quintile: relative risk [RR] 1.58 [95% CI 1.42–1.75] for men; 1.67 [1.48–1.88] for women) compared with long-term residents (Q1 to Q5) 1.32 [1.26–1.38] for men; 1.24 [1.18–1.31] for women). Coexisting poverty accentuated these effects; diabetes incidence varied threefold between recent immigrants living in low-income/low walkability areas (16.2 per 1,000) and those living in high-income/high walkability areas (5.1 per 1,000). CONCLUSIONS Neighborhood walkability was inversely associated with the development of diabetes in our setting, particularly among recent immigrants living in low-income areas.

Geographic Methods for Understanding and Responding to Disparities in Mammography Use in Toronto, Canada

OBJECTIVE: To use spatial and epidemiologic analyses to understand disparities in mammaography use and to formulate interventions to increase its uptake in low-income, high-recent immigration areas in Toronto, Canada.DESIGN: We compared mammography rates in four income-immigration census tract groups. Data were obtained from the 1996 Canadian census and 2000 physician billing claims. Risk ratios, linear regression, multilayer maps, and spatial analysis were used to examine utilization by area for women age 45 to 64 years.SETTING: Residential population of inner city Toronto, Canada, with a 1996 population of 780,000.PARTICIPANTS: Women age 45 to 64 residing in Toronto’s inner city in the year 2000.MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 113,762 women age 45 to 64, 27,435 (24%) had received a mammogram during 2000 and 91,542 (80%) had seen a physician. Only 21% of women had a mammogram in the least advantaged group (low income-high immigration), compared with 27% in the most advantaged group (high income-low immigration) (risk ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.75 to 0.84). Multilayer maps demonstrated a low income-high immigration band running through Toronto’s inner city and low mammography rates within that band. There was substantial geographic clustering of study variables.CONCLUSIONS: We found marked variation in mammography rates by area, with the lowest rates associated with low income and high immigration. Spatial patterns identified areas with low mammography and low physician visit rates appropriate for outreach and public education interventions. We also identified areas with low mammography and high physician visit rates appropriate for interventions targeted at physicians.

Association of Neighborhood Walkability With Change in Overweight, Obesity, and Diabetes

IMPORTANCE Rates of obesity and diabetes have increased substantially in recent decades; however, the potential role of the built environment in mitigating these trends is unclear. OBJECTIVE To examine whether walkable urban neighborhoods are associated with a slower increase in overweight, obesity, and diabetes than less walkable ones. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Time-series analysis (2001-2012) using annual provincial health care (N ≈ 3 million per year) and biennial Canadian Community Health Survey (N ≈ 5500 per cycle) data for adults (30-64 years) living in Southern Ontario cities. EXPOSURES Neighborhood walkability derived from a validated index, with standardized scores ranging from 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating more walkability. Neighborhoods were ranked and classified into quintiles from lowest (quintile 1) to highest (quintile 5) walkability. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Annual prevalence of overweight, obesity, and diabetes incidence, adjusted for age, sex, area income, and ethnicity. RESULTS Among the 8777 neighborhoods included in this study, the median walkability index was 16.8, ranging from 10.1 in quintile 1 to 35.2 in quintile 5. Resident characteristics were generally similar across neighborhoods; however, poverty rates were higher in high- vs low-walkability areas. In 2001, the adjusted prevalence of overweight and obesity was lower in quintile 5 vs quintile 1 (43.3% vs 53.5%; P < .001). Between 2001 and 2012, the prevalence increased in less walkable neighborhoods (absolute change, 5.4% [95% CI, 2.1%-8.8%] in quintile 1, 6.7% [95% CI, 2.3%-11.1%] in quintile 2, and 9.2% [95% CI, 6.2%-12.1%] in quintile 3). The prevalence of overweight and obesity did not significantly change in areas of higher walkability (2.8% [95% CI, -1.4% to 7.0%] in quintile 4 and 2.1% [95% CI, -1.4% to 5.5%] in quintile 5). In 2001, the adjusted diabetes incidence was lower in quintile 5 than other quintiles and declined by 2012 from 7.7 to 6.2 per 1000 persons in quintile 5 (absolute change, -1.5 [95% CI, -2.6 to -0.4]) and 8.7 to 7.6 in quintile 4 (absolute change, -1.1 [95% CI, -2.2 to -0.05]). In contrast, diabetes incidence did not change significantly in less walkable areas (change, -0.65 in quintile 1 [95% CI, -1.65 to 0.39], -0.5 in quintile 2 [95% CI, -1.5 to 0.5], and -0.9 in quintile 3 [95% CI, -1.9 to 0.02]). Rates of walking or cycling and public transit use were significantly higher and that of car use lower in quintile 5 vs quintile 1 at each time point, although daily walking and cycling frequencies increased only modestly from 2001 to 2011 in highly walkable areas. Leisure-time physical activity, diet, and smoking patterns did not vary by walkability (P > .05 for quintile 1 vs quintile 5 for each outcome) and were relatively stable over time. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In Ontario, Canada, higher neighborhood walkability was associated with decreased prevalence of overweight and obesity and decreased incidence of diabetes between 2001 and 2012. However, the ecologic nature of these findings and the lack of evidence that more walkable urban neighborhood design was associated with increased physical activity suggest that further research is necessary to assess whether the observed associations are causal.

Assessing the origin of and potential for international spread of Chikungunya virus from the Caribbean

Background: For the first time, an outbreak of chikungunya has been reported in the Americas. Locally acquired infections have been confirmed in fourteen Caribbean countries and dependent territories, Guyana and French Guiana, in which a large number of North American travelers vacation. Should some travelers become infected with chikungunya virus, they could potentially introduce it into the United States, where there are competent Aedes mosquito vectors, with the possibility of local transmission. Methods: We analyzed historical data on airline travelers departing areas of the Caribbean and South America, where locally acquired cases of chikungunya have been confirmed as of May 12th, 2014. The final destinations of travelers departing these areas between May and July 2012 were determined and overlaid on maps of the reported distribution of Aedes aeygpti and albopictus mosquitoes in the United States, to identify potential areas at risk of autochthonous transmission. Results: The United States alone accounted for 52.1% of the final destinations of all international travelers departing chikungunya indigenous areas of the Caribbean between May and July 2012. Cities in the United States with the highest volume of air travelers were New York City, Miami and San Juan (Puerto Rico). Miami and San Juan were high travel-volume cities where Aedes aeygpti or albopictus are reported and where climatic conditions could be suitable for autochthonous transmission. Conclusion: The rapidly evolving outbreak of chikungunya in the Caribbean poses a growing risk to countries and areas linked by air travel, including the United States where competent Aedes mosquitoes exist. The risk of chikungunya importation into the United States may be elevated following key travel periods in the spring, when large numbers of North American travelers typically vacation in the Caribbean.

Diabetes Screening Among Immigrants: A Population-Based Urban Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE To examine diabetes screening, predictors of screening, and the burden of undiagnosed diabetes in the immigrant population and whether these estimates differ by ethnicity. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A population-based retrospective cohort linking administrative health data to immigration files was used to follow the entire diabetes-free population aged 40 years and up in Ontario, Canada (N = 3,484,222) for 3 years (2004–2007) to determine whether individuals were screened for diabetes. Multivariate regression was used to determine predictors of having a diabetes test. RESULTS Screening rates were slightly higher in the immigrant versus the general population (76.0 and 74.4%, respectively; P < 0.001), with the highest rates in people born in South Asia, Mexico, Latin America, and the Caribbean. Immigrant seniors (age ≥65 years) were screened less than nonimmigrant seniors. Percent yield of new diabetes subjects among those screened was high for certain countries of birth (South Asia, 13.0%; Mexico and Latin America, 12.1%; Caribbean, 9.5%) and low among others (Europe, Central Asia, U.S., 5.1–5.2%). The number of physician visits was the single most important predictor of screening, and many high-risk ethnic groups required numerous visits before a test was administered. The proportion of diabetes that remained undiagnosed was estimated to be 9.7% in the general population and 9.0% in immigrants. CONCLUSIONS Overall diabetes-screening rates are high in Canada’s universal health care setting, including among high-risk ethnic groups. Despite this finding, disparities in screening rates between immigrant subgroups persist and multiple physician visits are often required to achieve recommended screening levels.

Alcohol Sales and Risk of Serious Assault

Background Alcohol is a contributing cause of unintentional injuries, such as motor vehicle crashes. Prior research on the association between alcohol use and violent injury was limited to survey-based data, and the inclusion of cases from a single trauma centre, without adequate controls. Beyond these limitations was the inability of prior researchers to comprehensively capture most alcohol sales. In Ontario, most alcohol is sold through retail outlets run by the provincial government, and hospitals are financed under a provincial health care system. We assessed the risk of being hospitalized due to assault in association with retail alcohol sales across Ontario. Methods and Findings We performed a population-based case-crossover analysis of all persons aged 13 years and older hospitalized for assault in Ontario from 1 April 2002 to 1 December 2004. On the day prior to each assault cases hospitalization, the volume of alcohol sold at the store in closest proximity to the victims home was compared to the volume of alcohol sold at the same store 7 d earlier. Conditional logistic regression analysis was used to determine the associated relative risk (RR) of assault per 1,000 l higher daily sales of alcohol. Of the 3,212 persons admitted to hospital for assault, nearly 25% were between the ages of 13 and 20 y, and 83% were male. A total of 1,150 assaults (36%) involved the use of a sharp or blunt weapon, and 1,532 (48%) arose during an unarmed brawl or fight. For every 1,000 l more of alcohol sold per store per day, the relative risk of being hospitalized for assault was 1.13 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02–1.26). The risk was accentuated for males (1.18, 95% CI 1.05–1.33), youth aged 13 to 20 y (1.21, 95% CI 0.99–1.46), and those in urban areas (1.19, 95% CI 1.06–1.35). Conclusions The risk of being a victim of serious assault increases with alcohol sales, especially among young urban men. Akin to reducing the risk of driving while impaired, consideration should be given to novel methods of preventing alcohol-related violence.