María Isabel Gutiérrez

Effect of the Modified Glasgow Coma Scale Score Criteria for Mild Traumatic Brain Injury on Mortality Prediction: Comparing Classic and Modified Glasgow Coma Scale Score Model Scores of 13

BACKGROUND The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) classifies traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) as mild (14-15), moderate (9-13), or severe (3-8). The Advanced Trauma Life Support modified this classification so that a GCS score of 13 is categorized as mild TBI. We investigated the effect of this modification on mortality prediction, comparing patients with a GCS score of 13 classified as moderate TBI (classic model) to patients with GCS score of 13 classified as mild TBI (modified model). METHODS We selected adult TBI patients from the Pennsylvania Outcome Study database. Logistic regressions adjusting for age, sex, cause, severity, trauma center level, comorbidities, and isolated TBI were performed. A second evaluation included the time trend of mortality. A third evaluation also included hypothermia, hypotension, mechanical ventilation, screening for drugs, and severity of TBI. Discrimination of the models was evaluated using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemershow goodness of fit test. RESULTS In the first evaluation, the AUCs were 0.922 (95% CI, 0.917-0.926) and 0.908 (95% CI, 0.903-0.912) for classic and modified models, respectively. Both models showed poor calibration (p < 0.001). In the third evaluation, the AUCs were 0.946 (95% CI, 0.943-0.949) and 0.938 (95% CI, 0.934-0.940) for the classic and modified models, respectively, with improvements in calibration (p = 0.30 and p = 0.02 for the classic and modified models, respectively). CONCLUSION The lack of overlap between receiver operating characteristic curves of both models reveals a statistically significant difference in their ability to predict mortality. The classic model demonstrated better goodness of fit than the modified model. A GCS score of 13 classified as moderate TBI in a multivariate logistic regression model performed better than a GCS score of 13 classified as mild.

Spatiotemporal Approaches to Analyzing Pedestrian Fatalities: The Case of Cali, Colombia

Objective: Injuries among pedestrians are a major public health concern in Colombian cities such as Cali. This is one of the first studies in Latin America to apply Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) methods to visualize and produce fine-scale, highly accurate estimates of citywide pedestrian fatalities. The purpose of this study is to determine the BME method that best estimates pedestrian mortality rates and reduces statistical noise. We further utilized BME methods to identify and differentiate spatial patterns and persistent versus transient pedestrian mortality hotspots. Methods: In this multiyear study, geocoded pedestrian mortality data from the Cali Injury Surveillance System (2008 to 2010) and census data were utilized to accurately visualize and estimate pedestrian fatalities. We investigated the effects of temporal and spatial scales, addressing issues arising from the rarity of pedestrian fatality events using 3 BME methods (simple kriging, Poisson kriging, and uniform model Bayesian maximum entropy). To reduce statistical noise while retaining a fine spatial and temporal scale, data were aggregated over 9-month incidence periods and censal sectors. Based on a cross-validation of BME methods, Poisson kriging was selected as the best BME method. Finally, the spatiotemporal and urban built environment characteristics of Cali pedestrian mortality hotspots were linked to intervention measures provided in Mead et al.s (2014) pedestrian mortality review. Results: The BME space–time analysis in Cali resulted in maps displaying hotspots of high pedestrian fatalities extending over small areas with radii of 0.25 to 1.1 km and temporal durations of 1 month to 3 years. Mapping the spatiotemporal distribution of pedestrian mortality rates identified high-priority areas for prevention strategies. The BME results allow us to identify possible intervention strategies according to the persistence and built environment of the hotspot; for example, through enforcement or long-term environmental modifications. Conclusions: BME methods provide useful information on the time and place of injuries and can inform policy strategies by isolating priority areas for interventions, contributing to intervention evaluation, and helping to generate hypotheses and identify the preventative strategies that may be suitable to those areas (e.g., street-level methods: pedestrian crossings, enforcement interventions; or citywide approaches: limiting vehicle speeds). This specific information is highly relevant for public health interventions because it provides the ability to target precise locations.

Do not forget culture when implementing mental health interventions for violence survivors

Armed conflict has positioned Colombia as the country with the second highest internal displacement of citizens. This situation has forced government projects and international cooperation agencies to intervene to mitigate the impact of violence; however, the coping strategies implemented by the countrys minorities are still unknown. The study objective is to describe the coping strategies and their relation with mental health within Afro-descendant culture in Colombia and the effects that armed conflict has on these coping mechanisms, through a phenomenological study involving focus groups and interviews with experts. Rituals and orality have a healing function that allow Afro-Colombian communities to express their pain and support each other, enabling them to cope with loss. Since the forced displacement, these traditions have been in jeopardy. Armed conflict prevents groups from mourning, generating a form of latent pain. Afro-Colombians require community interventions that create similar spaces for emotional support for the bereaved persons in the pre-conflict period. Thus, it is essential to understand the impact of this spiritual and ritualistic approach on mental health issues and the relevance of narrative and community interventions for survivors.